MLB Results — August 23, 2026

MLB Model Results — August 23, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Jahmai Jones— · vs Matt Wilkinson 31.3% No Home Run

#2 Coby Mayo— · vs Nick Martinez 30.8% No Home Run

#3 Willy Adames— · vs Jake Bennett 29.8% No Home Run

#4 Jo AdellCleveland Guardians · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 27.9% No Home Run

#5 Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgers · vs Lake Bachar 27.7% No Home Run

#6 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Carlos Rodón 26.6% No Home Run

#7 Zach Neto— · vs Cal Quantrill 26.2% Home Run

#8 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Kyle Leahy 25.4% Home Run

#9 Cal Raleigh— · vs Shota Imanaga 25.2% No Home Run

#10 Trent GrishamNew York Yankees · vs José Soriano 25.0% Home Run

#11 Mickey Moniak— · vs Foster Griffin 24.9% No Home Run

#12 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Jackson Kent 24.2% No Home Run

#13 Michael Harris IIAtlanta Braves · vs Shane Drohan 24.2% Home Run

#14 Pete Alonso— · vs Nick Martinez 24.1% No Home Run

#15 Andrew Benintendi— · vs Nolan McLean 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Blake Snellvs Pittsburgh Pirates 6.6 6 -0.6On target

Nolan McLeanvs Chicago White Sox 6.2 6 -0.2On target

Shane Drohanvs Atlanta Braves 6.1 5 -1.1

Shota Imanagavs Seattle Mariners 6.0 4 -2.0

Cal Quantrillvs Los Angeles Angels 5.8 6 +0.2On target

Tyler Mahlevs Milwaukee Brewers 5.7 4 -1.7

Cristopher Sánchezvs St. Louis Cardinals 5.7 7 +1.3

Bryce Millervs Chicago Cubs 5.6 5 -0.6On target

José Sorianovs New York Yankees 5.3 7 +1.7

Foster Griffinvs Colorado Rockies 4.9 4 -0.9On target

Yusei Kikuchivs Texas Rangers 4.5 4 -0.5On target

Carlos Rodónvs Toronto Blue Jays 4.5 2 -2.5

Kyle Leahyvs Philadelphia Phillies 4.5 4 -0.5On target

Jake Bennettvs San Francisco Giants 4.4 6 +1.6

Nick Martinezvs Baltimore Orioles 4.2 4 -0.2On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgers · vs Lake Bachar 62.4% No Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padres · vs Bailey Ober 62.3% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Kyle Leahy 62.3% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Mitch Bratt 62.2% Hit

Wilyer Abreu— · vs Matt Wilkinson 62.2% No Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Brady Basso 62.1% Hit

Willson Contreras— · vs Matt Wilkinson 62.0% No Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Shane Baz 61.8% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Jake Bennett 61.7% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Kyle Leahy 61.7% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Kyle Leahy 61.7% Hit

Pete Alonso— · vs Nick Martinez 61.3% No Hit

Freddie FreemanLos Angeles Dodgers · vs Lake Bachar 61.2% Hit

Jahmai Jones— · vs Matt Wilkinson 61.2% Hit

Steven KwanCleveland Guardians · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 61.0% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Zach Neto — 26.2% HR probability
Kyle Schwarber — 25.4% HR probability
Trent Grisham — 25.0% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Cal Quantrill — proj 5.8, recorded 6
Cristopher Sánchez — proj 5.7, recorded 7
José Soriano — proj 5.3, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Cristian Javier — proj 3.3, recorded 8
Andrew Abbott — proj 3.4, recorded 6

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Zach Neto. Model HR probability 26.2% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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