Top Home Run Threats

MLB

Top Home Run Threats

Top 30 players ranked by dedicated HR Threat Score and power-score components, separate from HR probability.

Slate 2026-07-22 · Updated Jul 22, 2026 · 11:44 PM UTC

#1Kyle Schwarber

PHI vs LAD

Probable Pitcher: Eric Lauer

HR Threat Score 77.5 · Power Score 79.3 · Tier Elite · Confidence High

Weak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Proven HR track recordHR-friendly venueFavorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 0.960)Favorable pitcher matchup

#2Yordan Alvarez

HOU vs MIA

Probable Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara

HR Threat Score 72.5 · Power Score 81.3 · Tier Elite · Confidence High

Proven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 1.160)Hot recent power formHigh expected isolated powerTop-end exit velocity

#3Ben Rice

NYY vs PIT

Probable Pitcher: Mitch Keller

HR Threat Score 70.9 · Power Score 71.2 · Tier High · Confidence High

HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 1.021)High expected isolated power

#4Shohei Ohtani

LAD vs PHI

Probable Pitcher: Aaron Nola

HR Threat Score 70.8 · Power Score 69.6 · Tier High · Confidence High

HR-friendly venueWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.940)Hot recent power formProven HR track record

#5James Wood

WSH vs COL

Probable Pitcher: Gabriel Hughes

HR Threat Score 69.3 · Power Score 59.3 · Tier High · Confidence High

HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordHigh expected isolated powerAbove-average hard contact

#6Bryce Harper

PHI vs LAD

Probable Pitcher: Eric Lauer

HR Threat Score 67.7 · Power Score 55.3 · Tier High · Confidence High

Weak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordFavorable pitcher matchupHigh expected isolated power

#7Tyler Soderstrom

ATH vs ARI

Probable Pitcher: Merrill Kelly

HR Threat Score 65.1 · Power Score 57.2 · Tier High · Confidence High

Weak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.865)High expected isolated powerFavorable pitcher matchupTop-end exit velocity

#8CJ Abrams

WSH vs COL

Probable Pitcher: Gabriel Hughes

HR Threat Score 63.7 · Power Score 54.0 · Tier High · Confidence High

HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordPark/weather context

#9Shea Langeliers

ATH vs ARI

Probable Pitcher: Merrill Kelly

HR Threat Score 63.6 · Power Score 58.7 · Tier High · Confidence High

Proven HR track recordWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable pitcher matchupHigh expected isolated powerTop-end exit velocity

#10Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD vs ATL

Probable Pitcher: Martín Pérez

HR Threat Score 63.5 · Power Score 50.9 · Tier High · Confidence High

Favorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 0.893)High expected isolated powerTop-end exit velocity

#11Hunter Goodman

COL vs WSH

Probable Pitcher: Cade Cavalli

HR Threat Score 61.3 · Power Score 61.9 · Tier High · Confidence High

HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.873)High expected isolated power

#12Derek Hill

PHI vs LAD

Probable Pitcher: Eric Lauer

HR Threat Score 61.1 · Power Score 48.1 · Tier High · Confidence High

Weak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)HR-friendly venueFavorable pitcher matchupHigh expected isolated powerElite barrel rate

#13Esmerlyn Valdez

PIT vs NYY

Probable Pitcher: Max Fried

HR Threat Score 60.6 · Power Score 63.7 · Tier High · Confidence Medium

Favorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 1.300)HR-friendly venueHot recent power formEmerging power signalHigh expected isolated power

#14Trent Grisham

NYY vs PIT

Probable Pitcher: Mitch Keller

HR Threat Score 59.4 · Power Score 46.9 · Tier High · Confidence High

HR-friendly venueHigh expected isolated powerPark/weather context

#15Trea Turner

PHI vs LAD

Probable Pitcher: Eric Lauer

HR Threat Score 58.7 · Power Score 38.3 · Tier High · Confidence High

Weak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)HR-friendly venueFavorable pitcher matchup

#16Drake Baldwin

ATL vs SD

Probable Pitcher: Michael King

HR Threat Score 58.6 · Power Score 57.1 · Tier High · Confidence High

Proven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.871)Above-average hard contact

#17Brandon Lowe

PIT vs NYY

Probable Pitcher: Gerrit Cole

HR Threat Score 58.5 · Power Score 59.8 · Tier High · Confidence High

HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.859)High expected isolated power

#18Luis García Jr.

WSH vs COL

Probable Pitcher: Gabriel Hughes

HR Threat Score 58.3 · Power Score 42.9 · Tier High · Confidence High

HR-friendly venuePark/weather contextPitcher matchup

#19Elly De La Cruz

CIN vs SEA

Probable Pitcher: Emerson Hancock

HR Threat Score 58.2 · Power Score 57.0 · Tier High · Confidence High

Proven HR track recordHot recent power formHigh expected isolated powerTop-end exit velocityHR-suppressing venue (headwind to power)

#20Junior Caminero

TB vs TOR

Probable Pitcher: Braydon Fisher

HR Threat Score 58.2 · Power Score 64.3 · Tier High · Confidence High

Proven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.898)Above-average hard contact

#21Freddie Freeman

LAD vs PHI

Probable Pitcher: Aaron Nola

HR Threat Score 57.8 · Power Score 54.7 · Tier Medium · Confidence High

HR-friendly venueWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.911)Ideal launch (sweet-spot) rateHigh expected isolated power

#22Matt Olson

ATL vs SD

Probable Pitcher: Michael King

HR Threat Score 57.7 · Power Score 61.6 · Tier Medium · Confidence High

Proven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.918)Top-end exit velocity

#23José Tena

WSH vs COL

Probable Pitcher: Gabriel Hughes

HR Threat Score 57.4 · Power Score 39.8 · Tier Medium · Confidence High

HR-friendly venueExtreme hard-hit rateHigh expected isolated power

#24Mickey Moniak

COL vs WSH

Probable Pitcher: Cade Cavalli

HR Threat Score 56.8 · Power Score 57.8 · Tier Medium · Confidence High

HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.959)

#25Dillon Dingler

DET vs CHC

Probable Pitcher: Colin Rea

HR Threat Score 56.8 · Power Score 55.0 · Tier Medium · Confidence High

Proven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.927)Above-average hard contact

#26Justin Foscue

TEX vs CWS

Probable Pitcher: Anthony Kay

HR Threat Score 56.7 · Power Score 54.9 · Tier Medium · Confidence Low

Favorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 1.038)Emerging power signalAbove-average hard contact

#27Ty France

SD vs ATL

Probable Pitcher: Martín Pérez

HR Threat Score 56.3 · Power Score 47.4 · Tier Medium · Confidence High

Favorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 0.966)Matchup power edgePark/weather context

#28Seiya Suzuki

CHC vs DET

Probable Pitcher: Keider Montero

HR Threat Score 56.2 · Power Score 54.2 · Tier Medium · Confidence High

Proven HR track recordHigh expected isolated powerRecent form

#29Manny Machado

SD vs ATL

Probable Pitcher: Martín Pérez

HR Threat Score 56.0 · Power Score 50.6 · Tier Medium · Confidence High

Proven HR track recordTop-end exit velocityPark/weather context

#30Andy Pages

LAD vs PHI

Probable Pitcher: Aaron Nola

HR Threat Score 55.8 · Power Score 48.3 · Tier Medium · Confidence High

HR-friendly venueWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Proven HR track recordHigh expected isolated power

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Pitcher	HR Threat Score	Power Score	Tier	Confidence	Drivers
1	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	LAD	Eric Lauer	77.5	79.3	Elite	High	Weak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Proven HR track recordHR-friendly venue+2 more
2	Yordan Alvarez	HOU	MIA	Sandy Alcantara	72.5	81.3	Elite	High	Proven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 1.160)Hot recent power form+2 more
3	Ben Rice	NYY	PIT	Mitch Keller	70.9	71.2	High	High	HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 1.021)+1 more
4	Shohei Ohtani	LAD	PHI	Aaron Nola	70.8	69.6	High	High	HR-friendly venueWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.940)+2 more
5	James Wood	WSH	COL	Gabriel Hughes	69.3	59.3	High	High	HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordHigh expected isolated power+1 more
6	Bryce Harper	PHI	LAD	Eric Lauer	67.7	55.3	High	High	Weak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)HR-friendly venueProven HR track record+2 more
7	Tyler Soderstrom	ATH	ARI	Merrill Kelly	65.1	57.2	High	High	Weak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.865)High expected isolated power+2 more
8	CJ Abrams	WSH	COL	Gabriel Hughes	63.7	54.0	High	High	HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordPark/weather context
9	Shea Langeliers	ATH	ARI	Merrill Kelly	63.6	58.7	High	High	Proven HR track recordWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable pitcher matchup+2 more
10	Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	ATL	Martín Pérez	63.5	50.9	High	High	Favorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 0.893)High expected isolated powerTop-end exit velocity
11	Hunter Goodman	COL	WSH	Cade Cavalli	61.3	61.9	High	High	HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.873)+1 more
12	Derek Hill	PHI	LAD	Eric Lauer	61.1	48.1	High	High	Weak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)HR-friendly venueFavorable pitcher matchup+2 more
13	Esmerlyn Valdez	PIT	NYY	Max Fried	60.6	63.7	High	Medium	Favorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 1.300)HR-friendly venueHot recent power form+2 more
14	Trent Grisham	NYY	PIT	Mitch Keller	59.4	46.9	High	High	HR-friendly venueHigh expected isolated powerPark/weather context
15	Trea Turner	PHI	LAD	Eric Lauer	58.7	38.3	High	High	Weak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)HR-friendly venueFavorable pitcher matchup
16	Drake Baldwin	ATL	SD	Michael King	58.6	57.1	High	High	Proven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.871)Above-average hard contact
17	Brandon Lowe	PIT	NYY	Gerrit Cole	58.5	59.8	High	High	HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.859)+1 more
18	Luis García Jr.	WSH	COL	Gabriel Hughes	58.3	42.9	High	High	HR-friendly venuePark/weather contextPitcher matchup
19	Elly De La Cruz	CIN	SEA	Emerson Hancock	58.2	57.0	High	High	Proven HR track recordHot recent power formHigh expected isolated power+2 more
20	Junior Caminero	TB	TOR	Braydon Fisher	58.2	64.3	High	High	Proven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.898)Above-average hard contact
21	Freddie Freeman	LAD	PHI	Aaron Nola	57.8	54.7	Medium	High	HR-friendly venueWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.911)+2 more
22	Matt Olson	ATL	SD	Michael King	57.7	61.6	Medium	High	Proven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.918)Top-end exit velocity
23	José Tena	WSH	COL	Gabriel Hughes	57.4	39.8	Medium	High	HR-friendly venueExtreme hard-hit rateHigh expected isolated power
24	Mickey Moniak	COL	WSH	Cade Cavalli	56.8	57.8	Medium	High	HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.959)
25	Dillon Dingler	DET	CHC	Colin Rea	56.8	55.0	Medium	High	Proven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.927)Above-average hard contact
26	Justin Foscue	TEX	CWS	Anthony Kay	56.7	54.9	Medium	Low	Favorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 1.038)Emerging power signalAbove-average hard contact
27	Ty France	SD	ATL	Martín Pérez	56.3	47.4	Medium	High	Favorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 0.966)Matchup power edgePark/weather context
28	Seiya Suzuki	CHC	DET	Keider Montero	56.2	54.2	Medium	High	Proven HR track recordHigh expected isolated powerRecent form
29	Manny Machado	SD	ATL	Martín Pérez	56.0	50.6	Medium	High	Proven HR track recordTop-end exit velocityPark/weather context
30	Andy Pages	LAD	PHI	Aaron Nola	55.8	48.3	Medium	High	HR-friendly venueWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Proven HR track record+1 more

MLB · Projection-First

Under the Radar Home Run Threats

These hitters are receiving a stronger-than-normal home run outlook today due to favorable matchup, weather, stadium, and pitcher conditions. Players on this board meet minimum power thresholds and are not already featured among today’s top Home Run Threats.

#1Ty France

SD vs ATL

Probable Pitcher: Martín Pérez

HR Boost 11.3 · Power Skill 40.8 · HR Env 55.6 · Confidence High

Big day-over-baseline boostFavorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 0.966)Matchup power edgeRecent form

#2Otto Lopez

MIA vs HOU

Probable Pitcher: Peter Lambert

HR Boost 9.6 · Power Skill 40.3 · HR Env 54.2 · Confidence High

Big day-over-baseline boostHR-friendly venuePark/weather contextMatchup power edge

#3Wyatt Langford

TEX vs CWS

Probable Pitcher: Anthony Kay

HR Boost 9.1 · Power Skill 43.2 · HR Env 58.5 · Confidence High

Big day-over-baseline boostPark/weather contextMatchup power edgeHR track record

#4TJ Rumfield

COL vs WSH

Probable Pitcher: Cade Cavalli

HR Boost 9.1 · Power Skill 43.2 · HR Env 64.6 · Confidence High

Big day-over-baseline boostHR-friendly venueFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.920)Above-average hard contact

#5Gabriel Moreno

ARI vs ATH

Probable Pitcher: Gage Jump

HR Boost 8.5 · Power Skill 40.5 · HR Env 61.3 · Confidence High

Big day-over-baseline boostPark/weather contextRecent formHR track record

#6Trevor Larnach

MIN vs CLE

Probable Pitcher: Slade Cecconi

HR Boost 6.2 · Power Skill 43.0 · HR Env 45.5 · Confidence High

Weak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.859)Top-end exit velocity

#7Alec Bohm

PHI vs LAD

Probable Pitcher: Eric Lauer

HR Boost 6.0 · Power Skill 42.9 · HR Env 78.4 · Confidence High

HR-friendly conditions todayWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)HR-friendly venueFavorable pitcher matchup

#8Ceddanne Rafaela

BOS vs BAL

Probable Pitcher: Dean Kremer

HR Boost 5.9 · Power Skill 40.5 · HR Env 58.4 · Confidence High

Weak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable pitcher matchupPitcher matchup

#9Isaac Paredes

HOU vs MIA

Probable Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara

HR Boost 5.6 · Power Skill 41.3 · HR Env 57.3 · Confidence High

HR-friendly venuePark/weather contextHR track record

#10Brandon Nimmo

TEX vs CWS

Probable Pitcher: Anthony Kay

HR Boost 5.3 · Power Skill 46.8 · HR Env 58.5 · Confidence High

Favorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 0.875)Park/weather contextMatchup power edge

#11Griffin Conine

MIA vs HOU

Probable Pitcher: Peter Lambert

HR Boost 5.3 · Power Skill 42.4 · HR Env 49.0 · Confidence Medium

Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.997)Proven HR track recordAbove-average hard contact

#12Ryan O'Hearn

PIT vs NYY

Probable Pitcher: Gerrit Cole

HR Boost 5.2 · Power Skill 46.9 · HR Env 64.7 · Confidence High

HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.873)

#13Miguel Vargas

CWS vs TEX

Probable Pitcher: Tyler Alexander

HR Boost 5.0 · Power Skill 46.9 · HR Env 48.4 · Confidence High

Proven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 0.987)Matchup power edge

#14Nolan Arenado

ARI vs ATH

Probable Pitcher: Gage Jump

HR Boost 4.4 · Power Skill 40.1 · HR Env 61.3 · Confidence High

Proven HR track recordPark/weather contextHR track record

#15Brooks Lee

MIN vs CLE

Probable Pitcher: Slade Cecconi

HR Boost 4.0 · Power Skill 40.6 · HR Env 46.8 · Confidence High

Weak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Above-average hard contactPitcher matchup

#16Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY vs PIT

Probable Pitcher: Mitch Keller

HR Boost 4.0 · Power Skill 43.7 · HR Env 65.0 · Confidence High

HR-friendly conditions todayHR-friendly venuePark/weather contextHR track record

#17Willi Castro

COL vs WSH

Probable Pitcher: Cade Cavalli

HR Boost 4.0 · Power Skill 41.4 · HR Env 62.0 · Confidence High

HR-friendly venueTop-end exit velocityPark/weather context

#18Dillon Dingler

DET vs CHC

Probable Pitcher: Colin Rea

HR Boost 3.7 · Power Skill 49.6 · HR Env 44.7 · Confidence High

Proven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.927)Above-average hard contact

#19Chase DeLauter

CLE vs MIN

Probable Pitcher: Bailey Ober

HR Boost 3.7 · Power Skill 41.5 · HR Env 38.9 · Confidence High

Above-average hard contactRecent formPower baseline

#20Mookie Betts

LAD vs PHI

Probable Pitcher: Aaron Nola

HR Boost 3.6 · Power Skill 47.3 · HR Env 71.3 · Confidence High

HR-friendly conditions todayHR-friendly venueWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable pitcher matchup

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Pitcher	HR Boost	Power Skill	HR Env	Confidence	Drivers
1	Ty France	SD	ATL	Martín Pérez	11.3	40.8	55.6	High	Big day-over-baseline boostFavorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 0.966)Matchup power edge+1 more
2	Otto Lopez	MIA	HOU	Peter Lambert	9.6	40.3	54.2	High	Big day-over-baseline boostHR-friendly venuePark/weather context+1 more
3	Wyatt Langford	TEX	CWS	Anthony Kay	9.1	43.2	58.5	High	Big day-over-baseline boostPark/weather contextMatchup power edge+1 more
4	TJ Rumfield	COL	WSH	Cade Cavalli	9.1	43.2	64.6	High	Big day-over-baseline boostHR-friendly venueFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.920)+1 more
5	Gabriel Moreno	ARI	ATH	Gage Jump	8.5	40.5	61.3	High	Big day-over-baseline boostPark/weather contextRecent form+1 more
6	Trevor Larnach	MIN	CLE	Slade Cecconi	6.2	43.0	45.5	High	Weak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.859)Top-end exit velocity
7	Alec Bohm	PHI	LAD	Eric Lauer	6.0	42.9	78.4	High	HR-friendly conditions todayWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)HR-friendly venue+1 more
8	Ceddanne Rafaela	BOS	BAL	Dean Kremer	5.9	40.5	58.4	High	Weak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable pitcher matchupPitcher matchup
9	Isaac Paredes	HOU	MIA	Sandy Alcantara	5.6	41.3	57.3	High	HR-friendly venuePark/weather contextHR track record
10	Brandon Nimmo	TEX	CWS	Anthony Kay	5.3	46.8	58.5	High	Favorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 0.875)Park/weather contextMatchup power edge
11	Griffin Conine	MIA	HOU	Peter Lambert	5.3	42.4	49.0	Medium	Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.997)Proven HR track recordAbove-average hard contact
12	Ryan O'Hearn	PIT	NYY	Gerrit Cole	5.2	46.9	64.7	High	HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.873)
13	Miguel Vargas	CWS	TEX	Tyler Alexander	5.0	46.9	48.4	High	Proven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 0.987)Matchup power edge
14	Nolan Arenado	ARI	ATH	Gage Jump	4.4	40.1	61.3	High	Proven HR track recordPark/weather contextHR track record
15	Brooks Lee	MIN	CLE	Slade Cecconi	4.0	40.6	46.8	High	Weak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Above-average hard contactPitcher matchup
16	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	NYY	PIT	Mitch Keller	4.0	43.7	65.0	High	HR-friendly conditions todayHR-friendly venuePark/weather context+1 more
17	Willi Castro	COL	WSH	Cade Cavalli	4.0	41.4	62.0	High	HR-friendly venueTop-end exit velocityPark/weather context
18	Dillon Dingler	DET	CHC	Colin Rea	3.7	49.6	44.7	High	Proven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.927)Above-average hard contact
19	Chase DeLauter	CLE	MIN	Bailey Ober	3.7	41.5	38.9	High	Above-average hard contactRecent formPower baseline
20	Mookie Betts	LAD	PHI	Aaron Nola	3.6	47.3	71.3	High	HR-friendly conditions todayHR-friendly venueWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)+1 more