NBA

NBA Projection Center

Daily player projections, probabilities, matchup intelligence, and verified results powered by EdgeRanked

OverviewProjectionsResultsTop PlaysHistory
Projection-first NBA intelligence is live. This section now prioritizes model output, range, confidence, and verified accountability over sportsbook-first presentation.
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Daily Slate

Premium projection workflow

The NBA experience is rebuilt around full-slate simulation output, distribution-aware probabilities, matchup context, and transparent results reporting.

Modeled Players
98

Players included in the current projection file.

Teams Live
12

Active teams in the current NBA slate.

Markets Surfaced
14

Browsable stat categories powered by the simulation output.

Projection Update
April 10, 2026 5:35 AM ET

Freshness of the main NBA projection source.

Top Player Projection Snapshot

Where the slate leads by category

Leaders are pulled across points, rebounds, assists, 3PM, defensive events, combo stats, fantasy output, and workload so the page feels like a true projection engine instead of a single-market board.

Snapshot

Points

  1. 1
    Kevin Durant
    HOU | 21.6 | 20+ points at 59.5%
  2. 2
    Collin Sexton
    CHI | 21.3 | 20+ points at 59.5%
  3. 3
    Jalen Brunson
    NYK | 17.9 | 15+ points at 64.9%
Snapshot

Rebounds

  1. 1
    Julian Reese
    WAS | 7.7 | 6+ rebounds at 74.0%
  2. 2
    Bam Adebayo
    MIA | 7.3 | 6+ rebounds at 68.0%
  3. 3
    Alperen Sengun
    HOU | 6.9 | 6+ rebounds at 60.2%
Snapshot

Assists

  1. 1
    Draymond Green
    GSW | 5.5 | 4+ assists at 76.9%
  2. 2
    LeBron James
    LAL | 5.4 | 4+ assists at 70.3%
  3. 3
    Tre Jones
    CHI | 5.4 | 4+ assists at 75.3%
Snapshot

3PM

  1. 1
    Collin Sexton
    CHI | 2.7 | 2+ 3pm at 69.6%
  2. 2
    Paul George
    PHI | 2.6 | 2+ 3pm at 62.1%
  3. 3
    Kevin Durant
    HOU | 2.4 | 2+ 3pm at 60.6%
Snapshot

Blocks

  1. 1
    Mitchell Robinson
    NYK | 1.6 | 1+ blocks at 50.0%
  2. 2
    Kel'el Ware
    MIA | 1.6 | 1+ blocks at 50.0%
  3. 3
    Collin Murray-Boyles
    TOR | 1.4 | 1+ blocks at 50.0%
Snapshot

Stocks

  1. 1
    Mitchell Robinson
    NYK | 2.7 | 2+ stocks at 50.0%
  2. 2
    Collin Murray-Boyles
    TOR | 2.5 | 2+ stocks at 50.0%
  3. 3
    Scottie Barnes
    TOR | 2.4 | 2+ stocks at 50.0%
Snapshot

PRA

  1. 1
    Kevin Durant
    HOU | 31.3 | 30+ pra at 58.1%
  2. 2
    Collin Sexton
    CHI | 30.1 | 30+ pra at 50.7%
  3. 3
    Alperen Sengun
    HOU | 27.9 | 25+ pra at 63.6%
Snapshot

Fantasy Points

  1. 1
    Kevin Durant
    HOU | 39.5 | 35+ fantasy points at 67.7%
  2. 2
    Collin Sexton
    CHI | 39.0 | 35+ fantasy points at 65.8%
  3. 3
    Alperen Sengun
    HOU | 35.9 | 35+ fantasy points at 52.8%
Snapshot

Minutes

  1. 1
    Kevin Durant
    HOU | 33.3 | 32+ minutes at 74.8%
  2. 2
    Anthony Gill
    WAS | 32.7 | 32+ minutes at 62.4%
  3. 3
    Tyrese Maxey
    PHI | 32.7 | 32+ minutes at 69.5%
Full Projection Access

Explore the full player pool

Browse every projected team, player, and stat from the full NBA source file with search, premium filters, and probability-aware sorting. Filtered team views now use the complete underlying dataset instead of a reduced featured subset.

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Verified Results

Performance as a trust driver

Results stay visible in the main NBA workflow so the product feels accountable, current, and verifiable.

All-Time Record
45-37

Verified graded outcomes across the tracked NBA history file.

Win Rate
54.9%

Calculated from graded wins and losses only.

Last 7 Days
16-9

Recent graded record.

Last 14 Days
43-37

Mid-window accountability check.

Last 30 Days
45-37

Longer trend from the tracked history export.

Last Updated
April 10, 2026 5:35 AM ET

Freshness of the record and history backing files.

Daily Performance Ledger

Recent day-by-day tracked NBA performance from the published record summary file.

DateWinsLossesTrackedWin Rate
2026-04-0743757.1%
2026-04-0652771.4%
2026-04-0532560.0%
2026-04-0442666.7%
2026-04-0325728.6%
2026-04-0225728.6%
2026-04-0161785.7%
2026-03-3152771.4%
2026-03-3024633.3%
2026-03-2915616.7%
2026-03-28961560.0%
2026-03-27202100.0%

Recent Verified Results

Latest graded outcomes pulled directly from NBA bet history.

DatePlayerTeamStatBetProjectionActualResult
2026-04-07Scottie BarnesTORPointsUNDER PTS12.125.0Loss
2026-04-07Max ChristieDALPointsUNDER PTS7.312.0Win
2026-04-07Quenton JacksonINDPointsUNDER PTS9.49.0Win
2026-04-07Jakob PoeltlTORPointsUNDER PTS9.917.0Loss
2026-04-07Will RileyWASPointsUNDER PTS18.02.0Win
2026-04-07AJ GreenMILPointsUNDER PTS11.820.0Loss
2026-04-07Bam AdebayoMIAPointsUNDER PTS15.47.0Win
2026-04-06Josh HartNYKPointsUNDER PTS9.62.0Win
2026-04-06Deni AvdijaPORPointsUNDER PTS17.826.0Win
2026-04-06Keldon JohnsonSASPointsOVER PTS15.813.0Win
2026-04-06Zaccharie RisacherATLPointsOVER PTS7.63.0Loss
2026-04-06Dylan HarperSASPointsOVER PTS14.817.0Win
Secondary Layer

Supporting Top Plays Layer

Sportsbook-facing picks remain available, but intentionally sit behind the projection and results workflow.

Top Plays Published
7

Top-play rows currently available from the published board.

Recent Graded Hit Rate
60.0%

Computed from the most recent graded NBA history rows.

Last Updated
April 10, 2026 5:35 AM ET

Timestamp of the current top-plays source file.

LeBron James
LAL | LAL @ GSW
High
Model Projection15.6
StatPoints
Sportsbook Line25.5
Recent Hit Rate80.6%

UNDER PTS | Line and pick language are shown as secondary context only.

De'Anthony Melton
GSW | GSW vs. LAL
High
Model Projection3.6
StatAssists
Sportsbook Line1.5
Recent Hit Rate80.5%

OVER AST | Line and pick language are shown as secondary context only.

Deandre Ayton
LAL | LAL @ GSW
High
Model Projection1.1
StatAssists
Sportsbook Line0.5
Recent Hit Rate73.1%

OVER AST | Line and pick language are shown as secondary context only.

De'Anthony Melton
GSW | GSW vs. LAL
High
Model Projection4.1
StatRebounds
Sportsbook Line2.5
Recent Hit Rate70.4%

OVER REB | Line and pick language are shown as secondary context only.