MLB Results — August 22, 2026

MLB Model Results — August 22, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Shane McClanahan 31.4% No Home Run

#2 Jac Caglianone— · vs Drew Anderson 31.0% No Home Run

#3 Mickey Moniak— · vs Tanner Bibee 30.6% Home Run

#4 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Ryan Weathers 28.4% No Home Run

#5 Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgers · vs Jared Jones 27.7% No Home Run

#6 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Unknown Pitcher 25.4% Home Run

#7 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Quinn Mathews 25.2% Home Run

#8 Salvador Perez— · vs Drew Anderson 24.4% Home Run

#9 Willy Adames— · vs Patrick Sandoval 24.2% Home Run

#10 Pete Alonso— · vs Shane McClanahan 24.2% No Home Run

#11 Colson MontgomeryChicago White Sox · vs Christian Scott 24.1% No Home Run

#12 Owen Caissie— · vs Jake Irvin 24.1% No Home Run

#13 Munetaka MurakamiChicago White Sox · vs Christian Scott 24.1% No Home Run

#14 Carter Jensen— · vs Drew Anderson 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Tyler O'Neill— · vs Shane McClanahan 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Dylan Ceasevs New York Yankees 7.8 8 +0.2On target

Tarik Skubalvs Pittsburgh Pirates 7.6 11 +3.4

Logan Hendersonvs Atlanta Braves 6.4 4 -2.4

Eury Pérezvs Washington Nationals 6.4 4 -2.4

Christian Scottvs Chicago White Sox 5.9 6 +0.1On target

Hunter Brownvs Athletics 5.7 4 -1.7

Kade Andersonvs Chicago Cubs 5.6 5 -0.6On target

Michael Sorokavs Cincinnati Reds 5.6 3 -2.6

David Petersonvs Seattle Mariners 5.5 8 +2.5

Jared Jonesvs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.0 5 -0.0On target

Casey Mizevs Minnesota Twins 5.0 0 -5.0

Jacob Lopezvs Houston Astros 5.0 9 +4.0

Ryan Weathersvs Toronto Blue Jays 5.0 3 -2.0

Michael Wachavs Detroit Tigers 5.0 6 +1.0

Quinn Mathewsvs Philadelphia Phillies 4.9 3 -1.9

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Jacob Lopez 62.2% No Hit

Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgers · vs Jared Jones 62.2% No Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Kade Anderson 62.0% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padres · vs Dean Kremer 61.6% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Unknown Pitcher 61.3% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Quinn Mathews 61.3% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Brandon Young 61.2% Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Luis Castillo 61.2% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Quinn Mathews 60.8% Hit

Alec Burleson— · vs Andrew Painter 60.8% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Patrick Sandoval 60.8% No Hit

Mickey Moniak— · vs Tanner Bibee 60.8% Hit

TJ Rumfield— · vs Tanner Bibee 60.7% No Hit

Wilyer Abreu— · vs Blade Tidwell 60.6% No Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Martín Pérez 60.5% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Mickey Moniak — 30.6% HR probability
Kyle Schwarber — 25.4% HR probability
Kyle Schwarber — 25.2% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Dylan Cease — proj 7.8, recorded 8
Tarik Skubal — proj 7.6, recorded 11
Christian Scott — proj 5.9, recorded 6

Biggest Surprises

Casey Mize — proj 5.0, recorded 0
Andrew Painter — proj 4.0, recorded 8

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Mickey Moniak. Model HR probability 30.6% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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