Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 22, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
403
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
August 22, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Shane McClanahan | 31.4% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | vs Drew Anderson | 31.0% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Mickey Moniak | Colorado Rockies | vs Tanner Bibee | 30.6% | Home Run |
| #4 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Ryan Weathers | 28.4% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Jared Jones | 27.7% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Unknown Pitcher | 25.4% | Home Run |
| #7 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Quinn Mathews | 25.2% | Home Run |
| #8 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Drew Anderson | 24.4% | Home Run |
| #9 | Willy Adames | San Francisco Giants | vs Patrick Sandoval | 24.2% | Home Run |
| #10 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Shane McClanahan | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Colson Montgomery | — | vs Christian Scott | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Owen Caissie | — | vs Jake Irvin | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Munetaka Murakami | — | vs Christian Scott | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Carter Jensen | — | vs Drew Anderson | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Tyler O'Neill | — | vs Shane McClanahan | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
No graded strikeout projections are available for this slate.
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Jacob Lopez | 62.2% | No Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Jared Jones | 62.2% | No Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Kade Anderson | 62.0% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Dean Kremer | 61.6% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Unknown Pitcher | 61.3% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Quinn Mathews | 61.3% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Brandon Young | 61.2% | Hit |
| Brett Baty | New York Mets | vs Luis Castillo | 61.2% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Quinn Mathews | 60.8% | Hit |
| Alec Burleson | — | vs Andrew Painter | 60.8% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Patrick Sandoval | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Mickey Moniak | Colorado Rockies | vs Tanner Bibee | 60.8% | Hit |
| TJ Rumfield | — | vs Tanner Bibee | 60.7% | No Hit |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | vs Blade Tidwell | 60.6% | No Hit |
| Jake Bauers | Milwaukee Brewers | vs Martín Pérez | 60.5% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Mickey Moniak — 30.6% HR probability
- Kyle Schwarber — 25.4% HR probability
- Kyle Schwarber — 25.2% HR probability
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Mickey Moniak. Model HR probability 30.6% — result: Home Run.
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