Hitter projections graded
19,498
Of 24,831 archived since 2026-03-26; last graded 2026-07-24.
Accuracy Center
How we verify our projections
Every tracked prediction is archived before games begin, then compared against final results after games complete.
The numbers below are read directly from our tracking and validation files — the same artifacts our internal monitoring uses. Nothing on this page is estimated or back-filled.
MLB
MLB Accuracy
Daily hitter and pitcher projections graded against final box scores.
Pitcher strikeout projection error
±1.86 Ks
Average miss vs final box score across 1,842 graded starts; last graded 2026-07-24.
Tracking freshness
2026-07-25
Most recent tracked date; current as of the latest completed slate.
NBA
NBA Walk-Forward Validation
The projection model is tested on past dates it never trained on — no look-ahead.
Validation status
PASS
Walk-forward audit generated 2026-06-09 across 21 held-out windows.
Player-games evaluated
23,184
Season dataset from 2025-11-09 to 2026-06-05.
Points projection error
±4.21 pts
Average miss per player on the most recent held-out window the model never trained on.
WNBA
WNBA Projection Accuracy
Player projections graded against final box scores, plus the daily pipeline checks that gate publishing.
Projection accuracy — last 30 days
78.3%
15,708 player projections graded vs final box scores; normalized MAE 0.78, RMSE 2.67, bias -0.03; share within ±2 shown; last graded 2026-07-09.
Season projection results
0.76
Overall normalized MAE across 20,717 graded projections; pooled MAE 1.63, RMSE 2.79, bias -0.05; 2025-07-05 to 2026-07-09.
Daily pipeline validation
FAIL
Slate 2026-07-25: projections generate, freshness and slate checks pass, and publishing completes. Indicates pipeline health, not model accuracy.
Membership
See the full boards behind these numbers
Pro members get the complete daily projection boards across MLB, NBA, WNBA, PGA, and UFC.