Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 30, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
390
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
June 30, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | — | vs Eury Pérez | 22.8% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Bubba Chandler | 21.4% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Pete Alonso | — | vs Erick Fedde | 21.1% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Trey Gibson | 21.0% | Home Run |
| #5 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Bubba Chandler | 20.8% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Junior Caminero | — | vs Noah Cameron | 20.6% | Home Run |
| #7 | Kyle Stowers | — | vs Tanner Gordon | 20.6% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Corey Seager | — | vs Tanner Bibee | 20.5% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Matthew Boyd | 20.1% | Home Run |
| #10 | Elly De La Cruz | — | vs Brandon Sproat | 20.1% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Juan Soto | — | vs Kevin Gausman | 20.0% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Jake Burger | — | vs Tanner Bibee | 20.0% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Shea Langeliers | — | vs Justin Wrobleski | 20.0% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Gunnar Henderson | — | vs Erick Fedde | 19.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | José Tena | — | vs Connelly Early | 19.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | Detroit Tigers | 6.8 | 5 | -1.8 | |
| Tarik Skubal | New York Yankees | 6.7 | 9 | +2.3 | |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Pittsburgh Pirates | 6.3 | 9 | +2.7 | |
| Joe Ryan | Houston Astros | 6.2 | 5 | -1.2 | |
| Connelly Early | Washington Nationals | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Matthew Boyd | San Diego Padres | 5.7 | 2 | -3.7 | |
| Nolan McLean | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| Bryan Woo | Los Angeles Angels | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Griffin Jax | Kansas City Royals | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Jacob deGrom | Cleveland Guardians | 5.4 | 9 | +3.6 | |
| Eury Pérez | Colorado Rockies | 5.3 | 8 | +2.7 | |
| Brandon Sproat | Cincinnati Reds | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 | |
| Kevin Gausman | New York Mets | 5.2 | 7 | +1.8 | |
| José Soriano | Seattle Mariners | 5.1 | 9 | +3.9 | |
| Landen Roupp | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Jeffrey Springs | 58.1% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Bubba Chandler | 58.0% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | — | vs Bubba Chandler | 58.0% | No Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | — | vs Noah Cameron | 57.6% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | — | vs Kevin Gausman | 57.4% | No Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | — | vs Tanner Gordon | 57.4% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Bubba Chandler | 57.3% | Hit |
| Edouard Julien | — | vs Eury Pérez | 57.3% | No Hit |
| Derek Hill | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Bubba Chandler | 56.8% | No Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Matthew Boyd | 56.7% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Joe Ryan | 56.4% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Unknown Pitcher | 56.3% | Hit |
| Iván Herrera | — | vs Martín Pérez | 56.3% | No Hit |
| Shea Langeliers | — | vs Justin Wrobleski | 56.2% | Hit |
| Brett Baty | — | vs Kevin Gausman | 56.0% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Colson Montgomery — 21.0% HR probability
- Junior Caminero — 20.6% HR probability
- Fernando Tatis Jr. — 20.1% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Tarik Skubal — proj 6.7, recorded 9
- Cristopher Sánchez — proj 6.3, recorded 9
- Nolan McLean — proj 5.6, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Cade Cavalli — proj 5.0, recorded 13
- Justin Wrobleski — proj 3.9, recorded 11
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Colson Montgomery. Model HR probability 21.0% — result: Home Run.
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