MLB Results — June 30, 2026

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MLB Model Results — June 30, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Eury Pérez 22.8% No Home Run

#2 Bryce Harper— · vs Bubba Chandler 21.4% No Home Run

#3 Pete Alonso— · vs Erick Fedde 21.1% No Home Run

#4 Colson Montgomery— · vs Trey Gibson 21.0% Home Run

#5 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Bubba Chandler 20.8% No Home Run

#6 Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Noah Cameron 20.6% Home Run

#7 Kyle Stowers— · vs Tanner Gordon 20.6% No Home Run

#8 Corey Seager— · vs Tanner Bibee 20.5% No Home Run

#9 Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Matthew Boyd 20.1% Home Run

#10 Elly De La Cruz— · vs Brandon Sproat 20.1% No Home Run

#11 Juan Soto— · vs Kevin Gausman 20.0% No Home Run

#12 Jake Burger— · vs Tanner Bibee 20.0% No Home Run

#13 Shea Langeliers— · vs Justin Wrobleski 20.0% No Home Run

#14 Gunnar Henderson— · vs Erick Fedde 19.9% No Home Run

#15 José Tena— · vs Connelly Early 19.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Cam Schlittlervs Detroit Tigers 6.8 5 -1.8

Tarik Skubalvs New York Yankees 6.7 9 +2.3

Cristopher Sánchezvs Pittsburgh Pirates 6.3 9 +2.7

Joe Ryanvs Houston Astros 6.2 5 -1.2

Connelly Earlyvs Washington Nationals 5.8 5 -0.8On target

Matthew Boydvs San Diego Padres 5.7 2 -3.7

Nolan McLeanvs Toronto Blue Jays 5.6 7 +1.4

Bryan Woovs Los Angeles Angels 5.5 5 -0.5On target

Griffin Jaxvs Kansas City Royals 5.5 5 -0.5On target

Jacob deGromvs Cleveland Guardians 5.4 9 +3.6

Eury Pérezvs Colorado Rockies 5.3 8 +2.7

Brandon Sproatvs Cincinnati Reds 5.3 7 +1.7

Kevin Gausmanvs New York Mets 5.2 7 +1.8

José Sorianovs Seattle Mariners 5.1 9 +3.9

Landen Rouppvs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.1 4 -1.1

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Jeffrey Springs 58.1% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Bubba Chandler 58.0% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Bubba Chandler 58.0% No Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Noah Cameron 57.6% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Kevin Gausman 57.4% No Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Tanner Gordon 57.4% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Bubba Chandler 57.3% Hit

Edouard Julien— · vs Eury Pérez 57.3% No Hit

Derek Hill— · vs Bubba Chandler 56.8% No Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Matthew Boyd 56.7% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Joe Ryan 56.4% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Unknown Pitcher 56.3% Hit

Iván Herrera— · vs Martín Pérez 56.3% No Hit

Shea Langeliers— · vs Justin Wrobleski 56.2% Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Kevin Gausman 56.0% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Colson Montgomery — 21.0% HR probability
Junior Caminero — 20.6% HR probability
Fernando Tatis Jr. — 20.1% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Tarik Skubal — proj 6.7, recorded 9
Cristopher Sánchez — proj 6.3, recorded 9
Nolan McLean — proj 5.6, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Cade Cavalli — proj 5.0, recorded 13
Justin Wrobleski — proj 3.9, recorded 11

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Colson Montgomery. Model HR probability 21.0% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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