MLB Results

MLB Model Results — June 30, 2026

Home run threat, strikeout, and hit probability results for this MLB slate.

OverviewTop PlaysPitchersHittersHome Run ThreatsIntelMatchup HistoryWeatherResultsStadiums
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Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — June 30, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

15
Games covered
390
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
June 30, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

RankPlayerTeamMatchupHR ProbabilityResult
#1Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Eury Pérez22.8%No Home Run
#2Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Bubba Chandler21.4%No Home Run
#3Pete AlonsoBaltimore Oriolesvs Erick Fedde21.1%No Home Run
#4Colson Montgomery—vs Trey Gibson21.0%Home Run
#5Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia Philliesvs Bubba Chandler20.8%No Home Run
#6Junior CamineroTampa Bay Raysvs Noah Cameron20.6%Home Run
#7Kyle StowersMiami Marlinsvs Tanner Gordon20.6%No Home Run
#8Corey Seager—vs Tanner Bibee20.5%No Home Run
#9Fernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padresvs Matthew Boyd20.1%Home Run
#10Elly De La CruzCincinnati Redsvs Brandon Sproat20.1%No Home Run
#11Juan SotoNew York Metsvs Kevin Gausman20.0%No Home Run
#12Jake Burger—vs Tanner Bibee20.0%No Home Run
#13Shea Langeliers—vs Justin Wrobleski20.0%No Home Run
#14Gunnar HendersonBaltimore Oriolesvs Erick Fedde19.9%No Home Run
#15José Tena—vs Connelly Early19.9%No Home Run
Strikeouts

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

PitcherOpponentProjected KsActual KsDifference
Cam SchlittlerDetroit Tigers6.85-1.8
Tarik SkubalNew York Yankees6.79+2.3
Cristopher SánchezPittsburgh Pirates6.39+2.7
Joe RyanHouston Astros6.25-1.2
Connelly EarlyWashington Nationals5.85-0.8On Target
Matthew BoydSan Diego Padres5.72-3.7
Nolan McLeanToronto Blue Jays5.67+1.4
Bryan WooLos Angeles Angels5.55-0.5On Target
Griffin JaxKansas City Royals5.55-0.5On Target
Jacob deGromCleveland Guardians5.49+3.6
Eury PérezColorado Rockies5.38+2.7
Brandon SproatCincinnati Reds5.37+1.7
Kevin GausmanNew York Mets5.27+1.8
José SorianoSeattle Mariners5.19+3.9
Landen RouppArizona Diamondbacks5.14-1.1
Hit Probability

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

PlayerTeamMatchupHit ProbabilityResult
Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgersvs Jeffrey Springs58.1%Hit
Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Bubba Chandler58.0%Hit
Brandon MarshPhiladelphia Philliesvs Bubba Chandler58.0%No Hit
Yandy DíazTampa Bay Raysvs Noah Cameron57.6%Hit
Juan SotoNew York Metsvs Kevin Gausman57.4%No Hit
Kyle StowersMiami Marlinsvs Tanner Gordon57.4%Hit
Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia Philliesvs Bubba Chandler57.3%Hit
Edouard JulienColorado Rockiesvs Eury Pérez57.3%No Hit
Derek Hill—vs Bubba Chandler56.8%No Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padresvs Matthew Boyd56.7%Hit
Yordan AlvarezHouston Astrosvs Joe Ryan56.4%Hit
Rafael DeversSan Francisco Giantsvs Unknown Pitcher56.3%Hit
Iván HerreraSt. Louis Cardinalsvs Martín Pérez56.3%No Hit
Shea Langeliers—vs Justin Wrobleski56.2%Hit
Brett BatyNew York Metsvs Kevin Gausman56.0%Hit
Model Highlights

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Top Strikeout Calls

Biggest Surprises

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Colson Montgomery. Model HR probability 21.0% — result: Home Run.
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