Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 29, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
14
Games covered
364
Hitters evaluated
27
Pitchers evaluated
June 29, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Sandy Alcantara | 23.1% | Home Run |
| #2 | Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 21.2% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Sean Sullivan | 21.2% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Shane Baz | 20.6% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Nick Kurtz | — | vs Eric Lauer | 20.5% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Robert Gasser | 20.5% | Home Run |
| #7 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Aaron Nola | 20.5% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Cal Raleigh | Seattle Mariners | vs Ryan Johnson | 20.5% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Mickey Moniak | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 20.4% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Shota Imanaga | 20.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Ketel Marte | — | vs Tyler Mahle | 20.1% | Home Run |
| #12 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Braxton Ashcraft | 20.1% | Home Run |
| #13 | Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Unknown Pitcher | 20.0% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Eric Lauer | 19.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Trey Yesavage | 19.7% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Weathers | Detroit Tigers | 5.9 | 3 | -2.9 | |
| Ranger Suarez | Washington Nationals | 5.5 | 8 | +2.5 | |
| Casey Mize | New York Yankees | 5.4 | 10 | +4.6 | |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.2 | 8 | +2.8 | |
| Shota Imanaga | San Diego Padres | 5.2 | 4 | -1.2 | |
| Parker Messick | Texas Rangers | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Gage Jump | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Sean Burke | Baltimore Orioles | 5.1 | 8 | +2.9 | |
| George Kirby | Los Angeles Angels | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 | |
| Aaron Nola | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.0 | 5 | -0.0 | On Target |
| Trey Yesavage | New York Mets | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 | |
| Peter Lambert | Minnesota Twins | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 | On Target |
| Shane Baz | Chicago White Sox | 4.7 | 6 | +1.3 | |
| Zebby Matthews | Houston Astros | 4.7 | 7 | +2.3 | |
| Tyler Mahle | Arizona Diamondbacks | 4.6 | 3 | -1.6 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez | Miami Marlins | vs Sean Sullivan | 61.0% | Hit |
| Xavier Edwards | — | vs Sean Sullivan | 60.8% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Sean Sullivan | 59.3% | Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Gage Jump | 59.0% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Zebby Matthews | 58.8% | No Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Shota Imanaga | 58.8% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Trey Yesavage | 58.7% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Braxton Ashcraft | 58.4% | Hit |
| Edouard Julien | Colorado Rockies | vs Sandy Alcantara | 58.1% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Unknown Pitcher | 57.9% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Braxton Ashcraft | 57.7% | Hit |
| TJ Rumfield | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 57.6% | Hit |
| Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Eric Lauer | 57.5% | No Hit |
| Esteury Ruiz | — | vs Sean Sullivan | 57.5% | No Hit |
| Troy Johnston | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 57.4% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Hunter Goodman — 23.1% HR probability
- Elly De La Cruz — 20.5% HR probability
- Bryce Harper — 20.1% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Ranger Suarez — proj 5.5, recorded 8
- Casey Mize — proj 5.4, recorded 10
- Braxton Ashcraft — proj 5.2, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Casey Mize — proj 5.4, recorded 10
- Ryan Weathers — proj 5.9, recorded 3
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 23.1% — result: Home Run.
Explore More