Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 29, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
14
Games covered
364
Hitters evaluated
27
Pitchers evaluated
June 29, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Sandy Alcantara | 23.1% | Home Run |
| #2 | Rafael Devers | — | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 21.2% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Kyle Stowers | — | vs Sean Sullivan | 21.2% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Colson Montgomery | — | vs Shane Baz | 20.6% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Robert Gasser | 20.5% | Home Run |
| #6 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Aaron Nola | 20.5% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Nick Kurtz | — | vs Eric Lauer | 20.5% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs Ryan Johnson | 20.5% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Mickey Moniak | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 20.4% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | — | vs Shota Imanaga | 20.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Ketel Marte | Arizona Diamondbacks | vs Tyler Mahle | 20.1% | Home Run |
| #12 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Braxton Ashcraft | 20.1% | Home Run |
| #13 | Kyle Stowers | — | vs Unknown Pitcher | 20.0% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Eric Lauer | 19.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Trey Yesavage | 19.7% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Weathers | Detroit Tigers | 5.9 | 3 | -2.9 | |
| Ranger Suarez | Washington Nationals | 5.5 | 8 | +2.5 | |
| Casey Mize | New York Yankees | 5.4 | 10 | +4.6 | |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.2 | 8 | +2.8 | |
| Shota Imanaga | San Diego Padres | 5.2 | 4 | -1.2 | |
| Parker Messick | Texas Rangers | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Gage Jump | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Sean Burke | Baltimore Orioles | 5.1 | 8 | +2.9 | |
| George Kirby | Los Angeles Angels | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 | |
| Aaron Nola | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.0 | 5 | -0.0 | On Target |
| Trey Yesavage | New York Mets | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 | |
| Peter Lambert | Minnesota Twins | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 | On Target |
| Shane Baz | Chicago White Sox | 4.7 | 6 | +1.3 | |
| Zebby Matthews | Houston Astros | 4.7 | 7 | +2.3 | |
| Tyler Mahle | Arizona Diamondbacks | 4.6 | 3 | -1.6 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez | — | vs Sean Sullivan | 61.0% | Hit |
| Xavier Edwards | — | vs Sean Sullivan | 60.8% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | — | vs Sean Sullivan | 59.3% | Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Gage Jump | 59.0% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | — | vs Shota Imanaga | 58.8% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Zebby Matthews | 58.8% | No Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Trey Yesavage | 58.7% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Braxton Ashcraft | 58.4% | Hit |
| Edouard Julien | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 58.1% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | — | vs Unknown Pitcher | 57.9% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Braxton Ashcraft | 57.7% | Hit |
| TJ Rumfield | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 57.6% | Hit |
| Esteury Ruiz | — | vs Sean Sullivan | 57.5% | No Hit |
| Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Eric Lauer | 57.5% | No Hit |
| Troy Johnston | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 57.4% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Hunter Goodman — 23.1% HR probability
- Elly De La Cruz — 20.5% HR probability
- Bryce Harper — 20.1% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Ranger Suarez — proj 5.5, recorded 8
- Casey Mize — proj 5.4, recorded 10
- Braxton Ashcraft — proj 5.2, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Casey Mize — proj 5.4, recorded 10
- Ryan Weathers — proj 5.9, recorded 3
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 23.1% — result: Home Run.
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