MLB Results — June 29, 2026

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MLB Model Results — June 29, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Sandy Alcantara 23.1% Home Run

#2 Rafael Devers— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 21.2% No Home Run

#3 Kyle Stowers— · vs Sean Sullivan 21.2% No Home Run

#4 Colson Montgomery— · vs Shane Baz 20.6% No Home Run

#5 Elly De La Cruz— · vs Robert Gasser 20.5% Home Run

#6 Brandon Lowe— · vs Aaron Nola 20.5% No Home Run

#7 Nick Kurtz— · vs Eric Lauer 20.5% No Home Run

#8 Cal Raleigh— · vs Ryan Johnson 20.5% No Home Run

#9 Mickey Moniak— · vs Sandy Alcantara 20.4% No Home Run

#10 Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Shota Imanaga 20.2% No Home Run

#11 Ketel Marte— · vs Tyler Mahle 20.1% Home Run

#12 Bryce Harper— · vs Braxton Ashcraft 20.1% Home Run

#13 Kyle Stowers— · vs Unknown Pitcher 20.0% No Home Run

#14 Shea Langeliers— · vs Eric Lauer 19.9% No Home Run

#15 Juan Soto— · vs Trey Yesavage 19.7% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Ryan Weathersvs Detroit Tigers 5.9 3 -2.9

Ranger Suarezvs Washington Nationals 5.5 8 +2.5

Casey Mizevs New York Yankees 5.4 10 +4.6

Braxton Ashcraftvs Philadelphia Phillies 5.2 8 +2.8

Shota Imanagavs San Diego Padres 5.2 4 -1.2

Parker Messickvs Texas Rangers 5.2 5 -0.2On target

Gage Jumpvs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Sean Burkevs Baltimore Orioles 5.1 8 +2.9

George Kirbyvs Los Angeles Angels 5.1 7 +1.9

Aaron Nolavs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.0 5 -0.0On target

Trey Yesavagevs New York Mets 5.0 3 -2.0

Peter Lambertvs Minnesota Twins 5.0 4 -1.0On target

Shane Bazvs Chicago White Sox 4.7 6 +1.3

Zebby Matthewsvs Houston Astros 4.7 7 +2.3

Tyler Mahlevs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.6 3 -1.6

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Otto Lopez— · vs Sean Sullivan 61.0% Hit

Xavier Edwards— · vs Sean Sullivan 60.8% Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Sean Sullivan 59.3% Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Gage Jump 59.0% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Shota Imanaga 58.8% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Zebby Matthews 58.8% No Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Trey Yesavage 58.7% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Braxton Ashcraft 58.4% Hit

Edouard Julien— · vs Sandy Alcantara 58.1% Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Unknown Pitcher 57.9% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Braxton Ashcraft 57.7% Hit

TJ Rumfield— · vs Sandy Alcantara 57.6% Hit

Esteury Ruiz— · vs Sean Sullivan 57.5% No Hit

Shea Langeliers— · vs Eric Lauer 57.5% No Hit

Troy Johnston— · vs Sandy Alcantara 57.4% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Hunter Goodman — 23.1% HR probability
Elly De La Cruz — 20.5% HR probability
Bryce Harper — 20.1% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Ranger Suarez — proj 5.5, recorded 8
Casey Mize — proj 5.4, recorded 10
Braxton Ashcraft — proj 5.2, recorded 8

Biggest Surprises

Casey Mize — proj 5.4, recorded 10
Ryan Weathers — proj 5.9, recorded 3

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 23.1% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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