MLB Results — July 1, 2026

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MLB Model Results — July 1, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Juan Soto— · vs Braydon Fisher 22.8% No Home Run

#2 Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Colin Rea 22.7% No Home Run

#3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.— · vs Freddy Peralta 22.4% No Home Run

#4 Pete Alonso— · vs Noah Schultz 22.0% No Home Run

#5 Hunter Goodman— · vs Max Meyer 22.0% Home Run

#6 Manny Machado— · vs Colin Rea 21.9% No Home Run

#7 Francisco Lindor— · vs Braydon Fisher 21.9% Home Run

#8 Taylor Ward— · vs Noah Schultz 21.9% No Home Run

#9 Seiya Suzuki— · vs Walker Buehler 21.8% Home Run

#10 Jackson Merrill— · vs Colin Rea 21.6% No Home Run

#11 Tyler O'Neill— · vs Noah Schultz 21.6% Home Run

#12 Kerry Carpenter— · vs Will Warren 21.5% No Home Run

#13 Michael Busch— · vs Walker Buehler 21.4% Home Run

#14 Ben Rice— · vs Troy Melton 21.3% No Home Run

#15 Gunnar Henderson— · vs Noah Schultz 21.0% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Zack Wheelervs Pittsburgh Pirates 6.8 10 +3.2

Tatsuya Imaivs Minnesota Twins 5.7 2 -3.7

Max Meyervs Colorado Rockies 5.6 5 -0.6On target

Paul Skenesvs Philadelphia Phillies 5.6 5 -0.6On target

Andrew Alvarezvs Boston Red Sox 5.5 6 +0.5On target

MacKenzie Gorevs Cleveland Guardians 5.4 7 +1.6

Taj Bradleyvs Houston Astros 5.3 11 +5.7

Shane Drohanvs Cincinnati Reds 5.2 7 +1.8

Dean Kremervs Chicago White Sox 5.2 4 -1.2

Payton Tollevs Washington Nationals 5.2 5 -0.2On target

Joey Cantillovs Texas Rangers 5.0 4 -1.0

Shane McClanahanvs Kansas City Royals 5.0 4 -1.0On target

Will Warrenvs Detroit Tigers 4.9 7 +2.1

Walker Buehlervs Chicago Cubs 4.3 6 +1.7

Noah Schultzvs Baltimore Orioles 4.0 7 +3.0

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Colin Rea 62.4% No Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Braydon Fisher 62.2% No Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs J.T. Ginn 62.2% No Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Zac Gallen 62.0% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Troy Melton 61.9% Hit

Otto Lopez— · vs Kyle Freeland 61.6% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Seth Lugo 61.6% No Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Kyle Freeland 61.4% No Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Taj Bradley 61.3% Hit

Andrew Vaughn— · vs Andrew Abbott 61.0% Hit

Gunnar Henderson— · vs Noah Schultz 60.9% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Walker Buehler 60.8% Hit

Xavier Edwards— · vs Kyle Freeland 60.7% No Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Braydon Fisher 60.6% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Paul Skenes 60.5% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Hunter Goodman — 22.0% HR probability
Francisco Lindor — 21.9% HR probability
Seiya Suzuki — 21.8% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Zack Wheeler — proj 6.8, recorded 10
Andrew Alvarez — proj 5.5, recorded 6
MacKenzie Gore — proj 5.4, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Taj Bradley — proj 5.3, recorded 11
Tatsuya Imai — proj 5.7, recorded 2

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 22.0% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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