Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 1, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
386
Hitters evaluated
29
Pitchers evaluated
July 1, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Juan Soto | — | vs Braydon Fisher | 22.8% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Colin Rea | 22.7% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | — | vs Freddy Peralta | 22.4% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Pete Alonso | — | vs Noah Schultz | 22.0% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Hunter Goodman | — | vs Max Meyer | 22.0% | Home Run |
| #6 | Manny Machado | San Diego Padres | vs Colin Rea | 21.9% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Francisco Lindor | — | vs Braydon Fisher | 21.9% | Home Run |
| #8 | Taylor Ward | — | vs Noah Schultz | 21.9% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Walker Buehler | 21.8% | Home Run |
| #10 | Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | vs Colin Rea | 21.6% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Tyler O'Neill | — | vs Noah Schultz | 21.6% | Home Run |
| #12 | Kerry Carpenter | — | vs Will Warren | 21.5% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Michael Busch | Chicago Cubs | vs Walker Buehler | 21.4% | Home Run |
| #14 | Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Troy Melton | 21.3% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Gunnar Henderson | — | vs Noah Schultz | 21.0% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | Pittsburgh Pirates | 6.8 | 10 | +3.2 | |
| Tatsuya Imai | Minnesota Twins | 5.7 | 2 | -3.7 | |
| Max Meyer | Colorado Rockies | 5.6 | 5 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Paul Skenes | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.6 | 5 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Andrew Alvarez | Boston Red Sox | 5.5 | 6 | +0.5 | On Target |
| MacKenzie Gore | Cleveland Guardians | 5.4 | 7 | +1.6 | |
| Taj Bradley | Houston Astros | 5.3 | 11 | +5.7 | |
| Shane Drohan | Cincinnati Reds | 5.2 | 7 | +1.8 | |
| Dean Kremer | Chicago White Sox | 5.2 | 4 | -1.2 | |
| Payton Tolle | Washington Nationals | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Joey Cantillo | Texas Rangers | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 | |
| Shane McClanahan | Kansas City Royals | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 | On Target |
| Will Warren | Detroit Tigers | 4.9 | 7 | +2.1 | |
| Walker Buehler | Chicago Cubs | 4.3 | 6 | +1.7 | |
| Noah Schultz | Baltimore Orioles | 4.0 | 7 | +3.0 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Colin Rea | 62.4% | No Hit |
| Juan Soto | — | vs Braydon Fisher | 62.2% | No Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | — | vs J.T. Ginn | 62.2% | No Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Zac Gallen | 62.0% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Troy Melton | 61.9% | Hit |
| Otto Lopez | — | vs Kyle Freeland | 61.6% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | — | vs Seth Lugo | 61.6% | No Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | — | vs Kyle Freeland | 61.4% | No Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Taj Bradley | 61.3% | Hit |
| Andrew Vaughn | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 61.0% | Hit |
| Gunnar Henderson | — | vs Noah Schultz | 60.9% | Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Walker Buehler | 60.8% | Hit |
| Xavier Edwards | — | vs Kyle Freeland | 60.7% | No Hit |
| Brett Baty | — | vs Braydon Fisher | 60.6% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Paul Skenes | 60.5% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Hunter Goodman — 22.0% HR probability
- Francisco Lindor — 21.9% HR probability
- Seiya Suzuki — 21.8% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Zack Wheeler — proj 6.8, recorded 10
- Andrew Alvarez — proj 5.5, recorded 6
- MacKenzie Gore — proj 5.4, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Taj Bradley — proj 5.3, recorded 11
- Tatsuya Imai — proj 5.7, recorded 2
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 22.0% — result: Home Run.
Live on EdgeRanked
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
3-day free trial. The full results archive stays free.
Explore More