Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 28, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
398
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
June 28, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Sam Aldegheri | 22.4% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Corey Seager | — | vs Shane Bieber | 21.7% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Michael King | 21.6% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Jake Burger | — | vs Shane Bieber | 21.5% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Junior Caminero | — | vs Merrill Kelly | 21.5% | Home Run |
| #6 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Zack Littell | 21.4% | Home Run |
| #7 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Cionel Pérez | 21.4% | Home Run |
| #8 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Cionel Pérez | 21.3% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Byron Buxton | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 21.2% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | — | vs Kumar Rocker | 21.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Brady Singer | 21.0% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Zach Neto | Los Angeles Angels | vs Aaron Civale | 20.9% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Taylor Ward | — | vs Zack Littell | 20.9% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Jo Adell | Cleveland Guardians | vs Aaron Civale | 20.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Kyle Stowers | — | vs Kyle Leahy | 20.8% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesús Luzardo | New York Mets | 6.1 | 6 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Gavin Williams | Seattle Mariners | 6.0 | 6 | +0.0 | On Target |
| Kyle Bradish | Washington Nationals | 5.7 | 2 | -3.7 | |
| Chris Sale | San Francisco Giants | 5.7 | 10 | +4.3 | |
| Brandon Woodruff | Chicago Cubs | 5.6 | 6 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Hunter Brown | Detroit Tigers | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| Carlos Rodón | Boston Red Sox | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Drew Rasmussen | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Sonny Gray | New York Yankees | 5.0 | 9 | +4.0 | |
| Emerson Hancock | Cleveland Guardians | 5.0 | 6 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Emmet Sheehan | San Diego Padres | 4.7 | 5 | +0.3 | On Target |
| Jack Flaherty | Houston Astros | 4.3 | 9 | +4.7 | |
| Robbie Ray | Atlanta Braves | 4.2 | 2 | -2.2 | |
| Michael King | Los Angeles Dodgers | 4.0 | 5 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Connor Prielipp | Colorado Rockies | 3.9 | 10 | +6.2 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Díaz | — | vs Merrill Kelly | 64.5% | Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Michael King | 64.4% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Jack Flaherty | 63.8% | No Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Cionel Pérez | 63.6% | No Hit |
| Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Sam Aldegheri | 62.3% | Hit |
| Byron Buxton | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 62.0% | No Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | — | vs Kyle Leahy | 61.8% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Cionel Pérez | 61.6% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Cionel Pérez | 61.4% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | — | vs Emmet Sheehan | 61.2% | Hit |
| Iván Herrera | — | vs Tyler Phillips | 61.1% | No Hit |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Brady Singer | 61.1% | No Hit |
| Brandon Nimmo | Texas Rangers | vs Shane Bieber | 61.1% | No Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Michael King | 61.0% | No Hit |
| Otto Lopez | — | vs Kyle Leahy | 60.9% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Junior Caminero — 21.5% HR probability
- Kyle Schwarber — 21.4% HR probability
- Pete Alonso — 21.4% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Gavin Williams — proj 6.0, recorded 6
- Chris Sale — proj 5.7, recorded 10
- Brandon Woodruff — proj 5.6, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Connor Prielipp — proj 3.9, recorded 10
- Jack Flaherty — proj 4.3, recorded 9
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Junior Caminero. Model HR probability 21.5% — result: Home Run.
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