MLB Results — June 28, 2026

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MLB Model Results — June 28, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Shea Langeliers— · vs Sam Aldegheri 22.4% No Home Run

#2 Corey Seager— · vs Shane Bieber 21.7% No Home Run

#3 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Michael King 21.6% No Home Run

#4 Jake Burger— · vs Shane Bieber 21.5% No Home Run

#5 Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Merrill Kelly 21.5% Home Run

#6 Pete Alonso— · vs Zack Littell 21.4% Home Run

#7 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Cionel Pérez 21.4% Home Run

#8 Bryce Harper— · vs Cionel Pérez 21.3% No Home Run

#9 Byron Buxton— · vs Ryan Feltner 21.2% No Home Run

#10 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.— · vs Kumar Rocker 21.2% No Home Run

#11 Brandon Lowe— · vs Brady Singer 21.0% No Home Run

#12 Zach Neto— · vs Aaron Civale 20.9% No Home Run

#13 Taylor Ward— · vs Zack Littell 20.9% No Home Run

#14 Jo Adell— · vs Aaron Civale 20.9% No Home Run

#15 Kyle Stowers— · vs Kyle Leahy 20.8% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Jesús Luzardovs New York Mets 6.1 6 -0.1On target

Gavin Williamsvs Seattle Mariners 6.0 6 +0.0On target

Kyle Bradishvs Washington Nationals 5.7 2 -3.7

Chris Salevs San Francisco Giants 5.7 10 +4.3

Brandon Woodruffvs Chicago Cubs 5.6 6 +0.4On target

Hunter Brownvs Detroit Tigers 5.4 4 -1.4

Carlos Rodónvs Boston Red Sox 5.3 6 +0.7On target

Drew Rasmussenvs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.2 5 -0.2On target

Sonny Grayvs New York Yankees 5.0 9 +4.0

Emerson Hancockvs Cleveland Guardians 5.0 6 +1.0On target

Emmet Sheehanvs San Diego Padres 4.7 5 +0.3On target

Jack Flahertyvs Houston Astros 4.3 9 +4.7

Robbie Rayvs Atlanta Braves 4.2 2 -2.2

Michael Kingvs Los Angeles Dodgers 4.0 5 +1.0On target

Connor Prielippvs Colorado Rockies 3.9 10 +6.2

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Merrill Kelly 64.5% Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Michael King 64.4% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Jack Flaherty 63.8% No Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Cionel Pérez 63.6% No Hit

Shea Langeliers— · vs Sam Aldegheri 62.3% Hit

Byron Buxton— · vs Ryan Feltner 62.0% No Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Kyle Leahy 61.8% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Cionel Pérez 61.6% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Cionel Pérez 61.4% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Emmet Sheehan 61.2% Hit

Iván Herrera— · vs Tyler Phillips 61.1% No Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Brady Singer 61.1% No Hit

Brandon Nimmo— · vs Shane Bieber 61.1% No Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Michael King 61.0% No Hit

Otto Lopez— · vs Kyle Leahy 60.9% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Junior Caminero — 21.5% HR probability
Kyle Schwarber — 21.4% HR probability
Pete Alonso — 21.4% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Gavin Williams — proj 6.0, recorded 6
Chris Sale — proj 5.7, recorded 10
Brandon Woodruff — proj 5.6, recorded 6

Biggest Surprises

Connor Prielipp — proj 3.9, recorded 10
Jack Flaherty — proj 4.3, recorded 9

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Junior Caminero. Model HR probability 21.5% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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