MLB Results — June 28, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — June 28, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

398

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

June 28, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Shea Langeliers	Athletics	vs Sam Aldegheri	22.4%	No Home Run
#2	Corey Seager	Texas Rangers	vs Shane Bieber	21.7%	No Home Run
#3	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Michael King	21.6%	No Home Run
#4	Jake Burger	—	vs Shane Bieber	21.5%	No Home Run
#5	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	vs Merrill Kelly	21.5%	Home Run
#6	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	vs Zack Littell	21.4%	Home Run
#7	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Cionel Pérez	21.4%	Home Run
#8	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Cionel Pérez	21.3%	No Home Run
#9	Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins	vs Ryan Feltner	21.2%	No Home Run
#10	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	—	vs Kumar Rocker	21.2%	No Home Run
#11	Brandon Lowe	—	vs Brady Singer	21.0%	No Home Run
#12	Zach Neto	—	vs Aaron Civale	20.9%	No Home Run
#13	Taylor Ward	—	vs Zack Littell	20.9%	No Home Run
#14	Jo Adell	—	vs Aaron Civale	20.9%	No Home Run
#15	Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	vs Kyle Leahy	20.8%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Jesús Luzardo	New York Mets	6.1	6	-0.1	On Target
Gavin Williams	Seattle Mariners	6.0	6	+0.0	On Target
Kyle Bradish	Washington Nationals	5.7	2	-3.7
Chris Sale	San Francisco Giants	5.7	10	+4.3
Brandon Woodruff	Chicago Cubs	5.6	6	+0.4	On Target
Hunter Brown	Detroit Tigers	5.4	4	-1.4
Carlos Rodón	Boston Red Sox	5.3	6	+0.7	On Target
Drew Rasmussen	Arizona Diamondbacks	5.2	5	-0.2	On Target
Sonny Gray	New York Yankees	5.0	9	+4.0
Emerson Hancock	Cleveland Guardians	5.0	6	+1.0	On Target
Emmet Sheehan	San Diego Padres	4.7	5	+0.3	On Target
Jack Flaherty	Houston Astros	4.3	9	+4.7
Robbie Ray	Atlanta Braves	4.2	2	-2.2
Michael King	Los Angeles Dodgers	4.0	5	+1.0	On Target
Connor Prielipp	Colorado Rockies	3.9	10	+6.2

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay Rays	vs Merrill Kelly	64.5%	Hit
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Michael King	64.4%	Hit
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Jack Flaherty	63.8%	No Hit
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Cionel Pérez	63.6%	No Hit
Shea Langeliers	Athletics	vs Sam Aldegheri	62.3%	Hit
Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins	vs Ryan Feltner	62.0%	No Hit
Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	vs Kyle Leahy	61.8%	No Hit
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Cionel Pérez	61.6%	Hit
Brandon Marsh	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Cionel Pérez	61.4%	Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Emmet Sheehan	61.2%	Hit
Iván Herrera	St. Louis Cardinals	vs Tyler Phillips	61.1%	No Hit
Bryan Reynolds	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Brady Singer	61.1%	No Hit
Brandon Nimmo	Texas Rangers	vs Shane Bieber	61.1%	No Hit
Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Michael King	61.0%	No Hit
Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins	vs Kyle Leahy	60.9%	No Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Junior Caminero. Model HR probability 21.5% — result: Home Run.

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