MLB Results — June 26, 2026

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MLB Model Results — June 26, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Zach Thornton 22.3% No Home Run

#2 Bryce Harper— · vs Zach Thornton 22.3% No Home Run

#3 Byron Buxton— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 22.1% No Home Run

#4 Brandon Lowe— · vs Andrew Abbott 21.8% No Home Run

#5 Juan Soto— · vs Zack Wheeler 21.4% No Home Run

#6 Marcell Ozuna— · vs Andrew Abbott 21.4% Home Run

#7 Pete Alonso— · vs Andrew Alvarez 21.0% No Home Run

#8 Hunter Goodman— · vs Taj Bradley 21.0% Home Run

#9 Ketel Marte— · vs Nick Martinez 20.9% No Home Run

#10 Jake Burger— · vs Patrick Corbin 20.9% No Home Run

#11 Derek Hill— · vs Zach Thornton 20.8% No Home Run

#12 Colson Montgomery— · vs Steven Cruz 20.8% No Home Run

#13 Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Zac Gallen 20.8% Home Run

#14 Francisco Lindor— · vs Zack Wheeler 20.7% No Home Run

#15 Christian Walker— · vs Keider Montero 20.6% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Jacob Misiorowskivs Chicago Cubs 7.4 8 +0.6On target

Paul Skenesvs Cincinnati Reds 7.1 7 -0.1On target

Zack Wheelervs New York Mets 6.1 5 -1.1

Andrew Alvarezvs Baltimore Orioles 5.2 5 -0.2On target

Max Meyervs St. Louis Cardinals 5.2 5 -0.2On target

Will Warrenvs Boston Red Sox 5.2 0 -5.2

Payton Tollevs New York Yankees 5.1 7 +1.9

Taj Bradleyvs Colorado Rockies 5.1 7 +1.9

David Sandlinvs Kansas City Royals 5.0 6 +1.0On target

Nathan Eovaldivs Toronto Blue Jays 5.0 9 +4.0

Spencer Arrighettivs Detroit Tigers 5.0 7 +2.0

Luis Castillovs Cleveland Guardians 5.0 4 -1.0On target

Walbert Ureñavs Athletics 5.0 5 +0.0On target

J.T. Ginnvs Los Angeles Angels 5.0 5 +0.0On target

Joey Cantillovs Seattle Mariners 5.0 9 +4.0

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Paul Goldschmidt— · vs Payton Tolle 64.1% No Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Walker Buehler 63.1% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Keider Montero 62.7% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Zach Thornton 62.5% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Zach Thornton 62.5% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Zac Gallen 62.1% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Zach Thornton 61.9% No Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Andrew Abbott 61.8% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Zack Wheeler 61.6% No Hit

Byron Buxton— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 61.5% Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Trevor Rogers 61.3% No Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Michael McGreevy 61.3% Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Colin Rea 61.3% No Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Walbert Ureña 61.3% No Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Roki Sasaki 60.6% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Marcell Ozuna — 21.4% HR probability
Hunter Goodman — 21.0% HR probability
Junior Caminero — 20.8% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Jacob Misiorowski — proj 7.4, recorded 8
Payton Tolle — proj 5.1, recorded 7
Taj Bradley — proj 5.1, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Will Warren — proj 5.2, recorded 0
Joey Cantillo — proj 5.0, recorded 9

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Marcell Ozuna. Model HR probability 21.4% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

See today's slate the same way

This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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