Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 26, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
425
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
June 26, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Zach Thornton | 22.3% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Zach Thornton | 22.3% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 22.1% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 21.8% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Zack Wheeler | 21.4% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Marcell Ozuna | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 21.4% | Home Run |
| #7 | Pete Alonso | — | vs Andrew Alvarez | 21.0% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Taj Bradley | 21.0% | Home Run |
| #9 | Ketel Marte | Arizona Diamondbacks | vs Nick Martinez | 20.9% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Jake Burger | — | vs Patrick Corbin | 20.9% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Derek Hill | — | vs Zach Thornton | 20.8% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Steven Cruz | 20.8% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Zac Gallen | 20.8% | Home Run |
| #14 | Francisco Lindor | — | vs Zack Wheeler | 20.7% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Christian Walker | Houston Astros | vs Keider Montero | 20.6% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Chicago Cubs | 7.4 | 8 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Paul Skenes | Cincinnati Reds | 7.1 | 7 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Zack Wheeler | New York Mets | 6.1 | 5 | -1.1 | |
| Andrew Alvarez | Baltimore Orioles | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Max Meyer | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Will Warren | Boston Red Sox | 5.2 | 0 | -5.2 | |
| Payton Tolle | New York Yankees | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 | |
| Taj Bradley | Colorado Rockies | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 | |
| David Sandlin | Kansas City Royals | 5.0 | 6 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.0 | 9 | +4.0 | |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Detroit Tigers | 5.0 | 7 | +2.0 | |
| Luis Castillo | Cleveland Guardians | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 | On Target |
| Walbert Ureña | Athletics | 5.0 | 5 | +0.0 | On Target |
| J.T. Ginn | Los Angeles Angels | 5.0 | 5 | +0.0 | On Target |
| Joey Cantillo | Seattle Mariners | 5.0 | 9 | +4.0 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt | New York Yankees | vs Payton Tolle | 64.1% | No Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Walker Buehler | 63.1% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Keider Montero | 62.7% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Zach Thornton | 62.5% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Zach Thornton | 62.5% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Zac Gallen | 62.1% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Zach Thornton | 61.9% | No Hit |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Andrew Abbott | 61.8% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Zack Wheeler | 61.6% | No Hit |
| Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 61.5% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Michael McGreevy | 61.3% | Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Trevor Rogers | 61.3% | No Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | Athletics | vs Walbert Ureña | 61.3% | No Hit |
| Jake Bauers | — | vs Colin Rea | 61.3% | No Hit |
| Derek Hill | — | vs Zach Thornton | 60.6% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Marcell Ozuna — 21.4% HR probability
- Hunter Goodman — 21.0% HR probability
- Junior Caminero — 20.8% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Jacob Misiorowski — proj 7.4, recorded 8
- Payton Tolle — proj 5.1, recorded 7
- Taj Bradley — proj 5.1, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Will Warren — proj 5.2, recorded 0
- Joey Cantillo — proj 5.0, recorded 9
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Marcell Ozuna. Model HR probability 21.4% — result: Home Run.
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