MLB Results — June 25, 2026

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MLB Model Results — June 25, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Cade Cavalli 22.6% No Home Run

#2 Cal Raleigh— · vs Bubba Chandler 22.5% No Home Run

#3 Bryce Harper— · vs Cade Cavalli 22.4% Home Run

#4 Kerry Carpenter— · vs Tatsuya Imai 21.2% No Home Run

#5 Brandon Lowe— · vs Bryce Miller 21.1% Home Run

#6 Christian Walker— · vs Troy Melton 21.0% No Home Run

#7 Rafael Devers— · vs Jeffrey Springs 20.6% No Home Run

#8 Shea Langeliers— · vs Landen Roupp 20.5% No Home Run

#9 Corey Seager— · vs Kevin Gausman 20.5% No Home Run

#10 Julio Rodríguez— · vs Bubba Chandler 20.4% No Home Run

#11 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Troy Melton 20.3% No Home Run

#12 James Wood— · vs Cristopher Sánchez 20.3% No Home Run

#13 Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Seth Lugo 20.3% Home Run

#14 Nick Kurtz— · vs Landen Roupp 20.2% No Home Run

#15 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.— · vs MacKenzie Gore 20.1% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Connelly Earlyvs New York Yankees 6.7 9 +2.3

Cristopher Sánchezvs Washington Nationals 6.3 6 -0.3On target

Cam Schlittlervs Boston Red Sox 5.4 9 +3.6

Kevin Gausmanvs Texas Rangers 5.4 4 -1.4

Landen Rouppvs Athletics 5.2 6 +0.8On target

MacKenzie Gorevs Toronto Blue Jays 5.0 5 -0.0On target

Bryce Millervs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.0 11 +6.0

Cade Cavallivs Philadelphia Phillies 5.0 7 +2.0

Freddy Peraltavs Chicago Cubs 4.4 5 +0.6On target

Tatsuya Imaivs Detroit Tigers 4.1 10 +5.9

Jeffrey Springsvs San Francisco Giants 3.9 6 +2.1

Seth Lugovs Tampa Bay Rays 3.9 3 -0.9On target

Michael McGreevyvs Arizona Diamondbacks 3.9 3 -0.9On target

Matthew Boydvs New York Mets 3.9 4 +0.1On target

Bubba Chandlervs Seattle Mariners 3.9 4 +0.1On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Troy Melton 62.1% No Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Cade Cavalli 61.3% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Seth Lugo 61.1% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Cade Cavalli 60.5% Hit

Paul Goldschmidt— · vs Connelly Early 60.2% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Cade Cavalli 60.0% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Connelly Early 60.0% No Hit

Alec Burleson— · vs Zac Gallen 59.9% Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Landen Roupp 59.7% Hit

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.— · vs MacKenzie Gore 59.5% No Hit

Nick Kurtz— · vs Landen Roupp 59.0% No Hit

Casey Schmitt— · vs Jeffrey Springs 58.9% Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs Bubba Chandler 58.9% Hit

Josh Naylor— · vs Bubba Chandler 58.9% Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Bryce Miller 58.5% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Bryce Harper — 22.4% HR probability
Brandon Lowe — 21.1% HR probability
Junior Caminero — 20.3% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Connelly Early — proj 6.7, recorded 9
Cam Schlittler — proj 5.4, recorded 9
Landen Roupp — proj 5.2, recorded 6

Biggest Surprises

Bryce Miller — proj 5.0, recorded 11
Tatsuya Imai — proj 4.1, recorded 10

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Bryce Harper. Model HR probability 22.4% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

See today's slate the same way

This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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