Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 25, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
9
Games covered
237
Hitters evaluated
18
Pitchers evaluated
June 25, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Cade Cavalli | 22.6% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs Bubba Chandler | 22.5% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Cade Cavalli | 22.4% | Home Run |
| #4 | Kerry Carpenter | — | vs Tatsuya Imai | 21.2% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Bryce Miller | 21.1% | Home Run |
| #6 | Christian Walker | Houston Astros | vs Troy Melton | 21.0% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Rafael Devers | — | vs Jeffrey Springs | 20.6% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Landen Roupp | 20.5% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Corey Seager | Texas Rangers | vs Kevin Gausman | 20.5% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Julio Rodríguez | — | vs Bubba Chandler | 20.4% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Troy Melton | 20.3% | No Home Run |
| #12 | James Wood | — | vs Cristopher Sánchez | 20.3% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Junior Caminero | — | vs Seth Lugo | 20.3% | Home Run |
| #14 | Nick Kurtz | — | vs Landen Roupp | 20.2% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | — | vs MacKenzie Gore | 20.1% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connelly Early | New York Yankees | 6.7 | 9 | +2.3 | |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Washington Nationals | 6.3 | 6 | -0.3 | On Target |
| Cam Schlittler | Boston Red Sox | 5.4 | 9 | +3.6 | |
| Kevin Gausman | Texas Rangers | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| Landen Roupp | Athletics | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 | On Target |
| MacKenzie Gore | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.0 | 5 | -0.0 | On Target |
| Bryce Miller | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.0 | 11 | +6.0 | |
| Cade Cavalli | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.0 | 7 | +2.0 | |
| Freddy Peralta | Chicago Cubs | 4.4 | 5 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Tatsuya Imai | Detroit Tigers | 4.1 | 10 | +5.9 | |
| Jeffrey Springs | San Francisco Giants | 3.9 | 6 | +2.1 | |
| Seth Lugo | Tampa Bay Rays | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Michael McGreevy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Matthew Boyd | New York Mets | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Bubba Chandler | Seattle Mariners | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Troy Melton | 62.1% | No Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Cade Cavalli | 61.3% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Seth Lugo | 61.1% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | — | vs Cade Cavalli | 60.5% | Hit |
| Paul Goldschmidt | New York Yankees | vs Connelly Early | 60.2% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Cade Cavalli | 60.0% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Connelly Early | 60.0% | No Hit |
| Alec Burleson | — | vs Zac Gallen | 59.9% | Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Landen Roupp | 59.7% | Hit |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | — | vs MacKenzie Gore | 59.5% | No Hit |
| Nick Kurtz | — | vs Landen Roupp | 59.0% | No Hit |
| Casey Schmitt | — | vs Jeffrey Springs | 58.9% | Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners | vs Bubba Chandler | 58.9% | Hit |
| Josh Naylor | Seattle Mariners | vs Bubba Chandler | 58.9% | Hit |
| Bryan Reynolds | — | vs Bryce Miller | 58.5% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Bryce Harper — 22.4% HR probability
- Brandon Lowe — 21.1% HR probability
- Junior Caminero — 20.3% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Connelly Early — proj 6.7, recorded 9
- Cam Schlittler — proj 5.4, recorded 9
- Landen Roupp — proj 5.2, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Bryce Miller — proj 5.0, recorded 11
- Tatsuya Imai — proj 4.1, recorded 10
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Bryce Harper. Model HR probability 22.4% — result: Home Run.
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