Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 24, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
784
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
June 24, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Sonny Gray | 23.5% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Ranger Suarez | 23.4% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Byron Buxton | — | vs Justin Wrobleski | 23.2% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Zack Littell | 23.1% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Miles Mikolas | 23.1% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Shane Bieber | 23.0% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Ryan Johnson | 22.9% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Cal Raleigh | Seattle Mariners | vs Mitch Keller | 22.9% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | — | vs Peter Lambert | 22.8% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Colson Montgomery | — | vs Tanner Bibee | 22.7% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs George Kirby | 22.7% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Miles Mikolas | 22.6% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Colson Montgomery | — | vs Parker Messick | 22.5% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Zack Littell | 22.5% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Bryan Woo | 22.4% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Minnesota Twins | 7.0 | 8 | +1.0 | |
| Jacob deGrom | Miami Marlins | 6.6 | 8 | +1.4 | |
| Tarik Skubal | New York Yankees | 6.0 | 9 | +3.0 | |
| Ryan Weathers | Detroit Tigers | 5.9 | 6 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Bryan Woo | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 | |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Seattle Mariners | 5.7 | 10 | +4.3 | |
| Nolan McLean | Chicago Cubs | 5.6 | 9 | +3.4 | |
| José Soriano | Baltimore Orioles | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 | |
| Joe Ryan | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.4 | 9 | +3.6 | |
| Griffin Jax | Kansas City Royals | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 | |
| Eury Pérez | Texas Rangers | 5.2 | 1 | -4.2 | |
| JP Sears | Atlanta Braves | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Tanner Bibee | Chicago White Sox | 5.2 | 3 | -2.2 | |
| Trey Yesavage | Houston Astros | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Ranger Suarez | Colorado Rockies | 5.0 | 9 | +4.0 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | vs Ryan Johnson | 61.5% | No Hit |
| Jose Altuve | — | vs Shane Bieber | 60.4% | No Hit |
| Bryson Stott | — | vs Miles Mikolas | 60.3% | Hit |
| George Springer | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Peter Lambert | 60.3% | No Hit |
| Blaze Alexander | — | vs Ryan Johnson | 59.8% | No Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Miles Mikolas | 59.7% | Hit |
| Alec Bohm | — | vs Zack Littell | 59.2% | No Hit |
| Bryson Stott | — | vs Zack Littell | 58.9% | Hit |
| Leody Taveras | — | vs Ryan Johnson | 58.9% | No Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Zack Littell | 58.7% | Hit |
| Alec Bohm | — | vs Miles Mikolas | 58.6% | No Hit |
| Corbin Carroll | — | vs Kyle Leahy | 58.3% | Hit |
| Yainer Diaz | Houston Astros | vs Shane Bieber | 58.3% | Hit |
| Christian Yelich | — | vs Nick Lodolo | 58.2% | No Hit |
| Christian Yelich | — | vs Rhett Lowder | 57.8% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Rafael Devers — 19.5% HR probability
- Rafael Devers — 19.5% HR probability
- Ketel Marte — 15.6% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Shohei Ohtani — proj 7.0, recorded 8
- Jacob deGrom — proj 6.6, recorded 8
- Tarik Skubal — proj 6.0, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Braxton Ashcraft — proj 5.7, recorded 10
- Eury Pérez — proj 5.2, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Rafael Devers. Model HR probability 19.5% — result: Home Run.
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