MLB Results — August 14, 2026

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MLB Model Results — August 14, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Steven Matz 31.4% No Home Run

#2 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Chase Burns 30.3% No Home Run

#3 Jac Caglianone— · vs Grayson Rodriguez 28.6% Home Run

#4 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Robert Gasser 25.2% No Home Run

#5 Owen Caissie— · vs Chase Burns 24.2% No Home Run

#6 Yordan Alvarez— · vs George Kirby 24.1% Home Run

#7 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Gerrit Cole 24.1% No Home Run

#8 Elly De La Cruz— · vs Sandy Alcantara 23.9% No Home Run

#9 Carter Jensen— · vs Grayson Rodriguez 23.9% No Home Run

#10 Brandon Lowe— · vs Jake Bennett 23.9% Home Run

#11 Matt Olson— · vs Brandon Pfaadt 23.9% No Home Run

#12 Munetaka Murakami— · vs Jackson Jobe 23.8% Home Run

#13 Dominic Canzone— · vs Peter Lambert 23.8% No Home Run

#14 Bryce Eldridge— · vs Kyle Freeland 23.8% Home Run

#15 Cal Raleigh— · vs Peter Lambert 23.8% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Chase Burnsvs Miami Marlins 6.7 8 +1.3

Chris Salevs Arizona Diamondbacks 6.4 9 +2.6

Gavin Williamsvs San Diego Padres 6.3 5 -1.3

Gerrit Colevs Toronto Blue Jays 6.0 5 -1.0On target

Yoshinobu Yamamotovs Milwaukee Brewers 5.9 9 +3.1

Sandy Alcantaravs Cincinnati Reds 5.7 2 -3.7

Peter Lambertvs Seattle Mariners 5.6 6 +0.4On target

Andrew Alvarezvs New York Mets 5.4 4 -1.4

George Kirbyvs Houston Astros 5.1 2 -3.1

Michael Kingvs Cleveland Guardians 5.1 4 -1.1

Kumar Rockervs Athletics 5.0 3 -2.0

Matthew Liberatorevs Chicago Cubs 4.9 6 +1.1

Landen Rouppvs Colorado Rockies 4.8 5 +0.2On target

Kyle Freelandvs San Francisco Giants 4.7 2 -2.7

Brandon Pfaadtvs Atlanta Braves 4.5 7 +2.5

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Robert Gasser 63.1% No Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs George Kirby 63.1% Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Kumar Rocker 62.1% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Shane Bieber 61.8% No Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Robert Stock 61.7% No Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Chris Bassitt 61.5% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Sandy Alcantara 61.3% No Hit

Luis García Jr.— · vs Shane Bieber 60.9% No Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Gavin Williams 60.9% Hit

Zack Gelof— · vs Kumar Rocker 60.9% No Hit

Trent Grisham— · vs Shane Bieber 60.8% Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Jake Bennett 60.7% Hit

Pete Alonso— · vs Steven Matz 60.5% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Matthew Liberatore 60.4% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Kyle Freeland 60.4% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Jac Caglianone — 28.6% HR probability
Yordan Alvarez — 24.1% HR probability
Brandon Lowe — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Chase Burns — proj 6.7, recorded 8
Chris Sale — proj 6.4, recorded 9
Yoshinobu Yamamoto — proj 5.9, recorded 9

Biggest Surprises

Robert Gasser — proj 2.6, recorded 7
Sandy Alcantara — proj 5.7, recorded 2

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Jac Caglianone. Model HR probability 28.6% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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