Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 14, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
14
Games covered
396
Hitters evaluated
28
Pitchers evaluated
August 14, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | — | vs Steven Matz | 31.4% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Chase Burns | 30.3% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Grayson Rodriguez | 28.6% | Home Run |
| #4 | Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Robert Gasser | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Owen Caissie | — | vs Chase Burns | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs George Kirby | 24.1% | Home Run |
| #7 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Gerrit Cole | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Elly De La Cruz | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Carter Jensen | — | vs Grayson Rodriguez | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Jake Bennett | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #11 | Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | vs Jackson Jobe | 23.8% | Home Run |
| #13 | Dominic Canzone | — | vs Peter Lambert | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Bryce Eldridge | — | vs Kyle Freeland | 23.8% | Home Run |
| #15 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs Peter Lambert | 23.8% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns | Miami Marlins | 6.7 | 8 | +1.3 | |
| Chris Sale | Arizona Diamondbacks | 6.4 | 9 | +2.6 | |
| Gavin Williams | San Diego Padres | 6.3 | 5 | -1.3 | |
| Gerrit Cole | Toronto Blue Jays | 6.0 | 5 | -1.0 | On Target |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.9 | 9 | +3.1 | |
| Sandy Alcantara | Cincinnati Reds | 5.7 | 2 | -3.7 | |
| Peter Lambert | Seattle Mariners | 5.6 | 6 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Andrew Alvarez | New York Mets | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| George Kirby | Houston Astros | 5.1 | 2 | -3.1 | |
| Michael King | Cleveland Guardians | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Kumar Rocker | Athletics | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 | |
| Matthew Liberatore | Chicago Cubs | 4.9 | 6 | +1.1 | |
| Landen Roupp | Colorado Rockies | 4.8 | 5 | +0.2 | On Target |
| Kyle Freeland | San Francisco Giants | 4.7 | 2 | -2.7 | |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Atlanta Braves | 4.5 | 7 | +2.5 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Robert Gasser | 63.1% | No Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs George Kirby | 63.1% | Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Kumar Rocker | 62.1% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Shane Bieber | 61.8% | No Hit |
| CJ Abrams | — | vs Robert Stock | 61.7% | No Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | — | vs Chris Bassitt | 61.5% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 61.3% | No Hit |
| Luis García Jr. | — | vs Shane Bieber | 60.9% | No Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Gavin Williams | 60.9% | Hit |
| Zack Gelof | — | vs Kumar Rocker | 60.9% | No Hit |
| Trent Grisham | — | vs Shane Bieber | 60.8% | Hit |
| Bryan Reynolds | — | vs Jake Bennett | 60.7% | Hit |
| Pete Alonso | — | vs Steven Matz | 60.5% | Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Matthew Liberatore | 60.4% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Kyle Freeland | 60.4% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Jac Caglianone — 28.6% HR probability
- Yordan Alvarez — 24.1% HR probability
- Brandon Lowe — 23.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Chase Burns — proj 6.7, recorded 8
- Chris Sale — proj 6.4, recorded 9
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto — proj 5.9, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Robert Gasser — proj 2.6, recorded 7
- Sandy Alcantara — proj 5.7, recorded 2
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Jac Caglianone. Model HR probability 28.6% — result: Home Run.
Live on EdgeRanked
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
3-day free trial. The full results archive stays free.
Explore More