Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 13, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
9
Games covered
236
Hitters evaluated
18
Pitchers evaluated
August 13, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Payton Tolle | 30.9% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Tyler Phillips | 30.6% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Royce Lewis | Minnesota Twins | vs Aaron Nola | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Trent Grisham | — | vs Logan Gilbert | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Shane Drohan | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Byron Buxton | — | vs Aaron Nola | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Colson Montgomery | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | vs Andrew Abbott | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Luis García Jr. | — | vs Logan Gilbert | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Randal Grichuk | Chicago White Sox | vs Andrew Abbott | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Heliot Ramos | — | vs Logan Gilbert | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Andrew Benintendi | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Dylan Crews | — | vs Kevin Gausman | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Miguel Vargas | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Joc Pederson | — | vs Walbert Ureña | 23.0% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | Los Angeles Angels | 6.4 | 3 | -3.4 | |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Miami Marlins | 6.2 | 10 | +3.8 | |
| Payton Tolle | Toronto Blue Jays | 6.1 | 4 | -2.1 | |
| Shane Drohan | Los Angeles Dodgers | 6.1 | 5 | -1.1 | |
| Taj Bradley | Philadelphia Phillies | 6.0 | 3 | -3.0 | |
| Parker Messick | Detroit Tigers | 5.9 | 6 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Max Fried | Seattle Mariners | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 | |
| Logan Gilbert | New York Yankees | 5.9 | 7 | +1.1 | |
| Kevin Gausman | Washington Nationals | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Aaron Nola | Minnesota Twins | 5.7 | 9 | +3.3 | |
| Walbert Ureña | Texas Rangers | 4.9 | 5 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Tyler Phillips | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4.4 | 6 | +1.6 | |
| Keider Montero | Cleveland Guardians | 4.3 | 0 | -4.3 | |
| Cade Cavalli | Chicago Cubs | 3.9 | 10 | +6.1 | |
| Davis Martin | Cincinnati Reds | 3.6 | 3 | -0.6 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Shane Drohan | 62.4% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Taj Bradley | 62.4% | Hit |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | vs Max Scherzer | 62.4% | Hit |
| Brandon Lowe | — | vs Tyler Phillips | 61.9% | Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Kevin Gausman | 61.9% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Taj Bradley | 61.8% | Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners | vs Max Fried | 61.7% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Davis Martin | 61.7% | Hit |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Tyler Phillips | 61.4% | No Hit |
| Willson Contreras | — | vs Max Scherzer | 60.6% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Logan Gilbert | 60.6% | No Hit |
| Byron Buxton | — | vs Aaron Nola | 60.3% | Hit |
| Julio Rodríguez | — | vs Max Fried | 60.1% | Hit |
| Jake Bauers | Milwaukee Brewers | vs Roki Sasaki | 60.1% | Hit |
| Chase Meidroth | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 59.6% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Kyle Schwarber — 19.4% HR probability
- Max Muncy — 18.5% HR probability
- Abimelec Ortiz — 18.5% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Braxton Ashcraft — proj 6.2, recorded 10
- Parker Messick — proj 5.9, recorded 6
- Logan Gilbert — proj 5.9, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Cade Cavalli — proj 3.9, recorded 10
- Keider Montero — proj 4.3, recorded 0
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kyle Schwarber. Model HR probability 19.4% — result: Home Run.
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