Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 13, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
9
Games covered
236
Hitters evaluated
18
Pitchers evaluated
August 13, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | Los Angeles Angels | 6.4 | 3 | -3.4 | |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Miami Marlins | 6.2 | 10 | +3.8 | |
| Payton Tolle | Toronto Blue Jays | 6.1 | 4 | -2.1 | |
| Shane Drohan | Los Angeles Dodgers | 6.1 | 5 | -1.1 | |
| Taj Bradley | Philadelphia Phillies | 6.0 | 3 | -3.0 | |
| Parker Messick | Detroit Tigers | 5.9 | 6 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Max Fried | Seattle Mariners | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 | |
| Logan Gilbert | New York Yankees | 5.9 | 7 | +1.1 | |
| Kevin Gausman | Washington Nationals | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Aaron Nola | Minnesota Twins | 5.7 | 9 | +3.3 | |
| Walbert Ureña | Texas Rangers | 4.9 | 5 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Tyler Phillips | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4.4 | 6 | +1.6 | |
| Keider Montero | Cleveland Guardians | 4.3 | 0 | -4.3 | |
| Cade Cavalli | Chicago Cubs | 3.9 | 10 | +6.1 | |
| Davis Martin | Cincinnati Reds | 3.6 | 3 | -0.6 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Braxton Ashcraft — proj 6.2, recorded 10
- Parker Messick — proj 5.9, recorded 6
- Logan Gilbert — proj 5.9, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Cade Cavalli — proj 3.9, recorded 10
- Keider Montero — proj 4.3, recorded 0
Highest Performing Projection — Strikeout Projection: Braxton Ashcraft. Projected 6.2 strikeouts — recorded 10.
Explore More