MLB Results — August 13, 2026

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MLB Model Results — August 13, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Payton Tolle 30.9% No Home Run

#2 Brandon Lowe— · vs Tyler Phillips 30.6% No Home Run

#3 Royce Lewis— · vs Aaron Nola 25.4% No Home Run

#4 Trent Grisham— · vs Logan Gilbert 25.4% No Home Run

#5 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Shane Drohan 25.2% No Home Run

#6 Byron Buxton— · vs Aaron Nola 25.0% No Home Run

#7 Colson Montgomery— · vs Andrew Abbott 24.1% No Home Run

#8 Munetaka Murakami— · vs Andrew Abbott 24.1% No Home Run

#9 Luis García Jr.— · vs Logan Gilbert 23.9% No Home Run

#10 Randal Grichuk— · vs Andrew Abbott 23.9% No Home Run

#11 Heliot Ramos— · vs Logan Gilbert 23.9% No Home Run

#12 Andrew Benintendi— · vs Andrew Abbott 23.9% No Home Run

#13 Dylan Crews— · vs Kevin Gausman 23.8% No Home Run

#14 Miguel Vargas— · vs Andrew Abbott 23.8% No Home Run

#15 Joc Pederson— · vs Walbert Ureña 23.0% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Jacob deGromvs Los Angeles Angels 6.4 3 -3.4

Braxton Ashcraftvs Miami Marlins 6.2 10 +3.8

Payton Tollevs Toronto Blue Jays 6.1 4 -2.1

Shane Drohanvs Los Angeles Dodgers 6.1 5 -1.1

Taj Bradleyvs Philadelphia Phillies 6.0 3 -3.0

Parker Messickvs Detroit Tigers 5.9 6 +0.1On target

Max Friedvs Seattle Mariners 5.9 4 -1.9

Logan Gilbertvs New York Yankees 5.9 7 +1.1

Kevin Gausmanvs Washington Nationals 5.7 7 +1.3

Aaron Nolavs Minnesota Twins 5.7 9 +3.3

Walbert Ureñavs Texas Rangers 4.9 5 +0.1On target

Tyler Phillipsvs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.4 6 +1.6

Keider Monterovs Cleveland Guardians 4.3 0 -4.3

Cade Cavallivs Chicago Cubs 3.9 10 +6.1

Davis Martinvs Cincinnati Reds 3.6 3 -0.6On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Shane Drohan 62.4% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Taj Bradley 62.4% Hit

Wilyer Abreu— · vs Max Scherzer 62.4% Hit

Brandon Lowe— · vs Tyler Phillips 61.9% Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Kevin Gausman 61.9% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Taj Bradley 61.8% Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs Max Fried 61.7% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Davis Martin 61.7% Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Tyler Phillips 61.4% No Hit

Willson Contreras— · vs Max Scherzer 60.6% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Logan Gilbert 60.6% No Hit

Byron Buxton— · vs Aaron Nola 60.3% Hit

Julio Rodríguez— · vs Max Fried 60.1% Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Roki Sasaki 60.1% Hit

Chase Meidroth— · vs Andrew Abbott 59.6% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Kyle Schwarber — 19.4% HR probability
Max Muncy — 18.5% HR probability
Abimelec Ortiz — 18.5% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Braxton Ashcraft — proj 6.2, recorded 10
Parker Messick — proj 5.9, recorded 6
Logan Gilbert — proj 5.9, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Cade Cavalli — proj 3.9, recorded 10
Keider Montero — proj 4.3, recorded 0

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kyle Schwarber. Model HR probability 19.4% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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