MLB Results — August 15, 2026

MLB is in the offseason. It's back in late March.

Here's what's live tonight:

NBA Matchup Lab NBA projections NFL Matchup Lab NFL projections NBA defense vs position NFL defense vs position

MLB Model Results — August 15, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Ian Seymour 31.2% No Home Run

#2 Brandon Lowe— · vs Sonny Gray 30.0% No Home Run

#3 Royce Lewis— · vs Jesús Luzardo 28.5% No Home Run

#4 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Brady Singer 28.0% No Home Run

#5 Jac Caglianone— · vs Reid Detmers 27.9% No Home Run

#6 Tyler O'Neill— · vs Ian Seymour 27.0% No Home Run

#7 Owen Caissie— · vs Brady Singer 26.6% No Home Run

#8 Byron Buxton— · vs Jesús Luzardo 26.1% No Home Run

#9 Salvador Perez— · vs Reid Detmers 25.2% No Home Run

#10 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Jacob Misiorowski 25.0% No Home Run

#11 Jahmai Jones— · vs Jared Jones 24.2% No Home Run

#12 Jackson Merrill— · vs Joey Cantillo 24.2% No Home Run

#13 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Cam Schlittler 24.2% No Home Run

#14 Matt Olson— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 24.1% No Home Run

#15 Munetaka Murakami— · vs Troy Melton 24.1% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Jesús Luzardovs Minnesota Twins 7.7 9 +1.3

Jacob Misiorowskivs Los Angeles Dodgers 6.7 6 -0.7On target

Sean Manaeavs Washington Nationals 6.3 7 +0.7On target

MacKenzie Gorevs Athletics 6.2 5 -1.2

Cam Schlittlervs Toronto Blue Jays 5.9 7 +1.1

Connor Prielippvs Philadelphia Phillies 5.9 6 +0.1On target

Reid Detmersvs Kansas City Royals 5.8 11 +5.2

Troy Meltonvs Chicago White Sox 5.7 4 -1.7

Sonny Grayvs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.7 7 +1.3

J.T. Ginnvs Texas Rangers 5.5 7 +1.5

Logan Webbvs Colorado Rockies 5.3 7 +1.7

Jared Jonesvs Boston Red Sox 5.1 7 +1.9

Ryan Gustovs Cincinnati Reds 5.0 6 +1.0

Joey Cantillovs San Diego Padres 4.9 7 +2.1

Hayden Wesneskivs Seattle Mariners 4.6 6 +1.4

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Joey Cantillo 62.6% No Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Emerson Hancock 62.2% No Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Jacob Misiorowski 62.0% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Michael Lorenzen 61.0% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Michael McGreevy 60.8% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Braydon Fisher 60.8% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Connor Prielipp 60.8% No Hit

Iván Herrera— · vs Matthew Boyd 60.7% No Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Ryan Gusto 60.7% No Hit

Trent Grisham— · vs Braydon Fisher 60.6% No Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Connor Prielipp 60.6% Hit

Andrew Vaughn— · vs Justin Wrobleski 60.5% Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs Hayden Wesneski 60.4% No Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Justin Wrobleski 60.4% No Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Kyle Bradish 60.4% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Ronald Acuña Jr. — 23.8% HR probability
Pete Alonso — 19.1% HR probability
Michael Conforto — 17.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Jesús Luzardo — proj 7.7, recorded 9
Sean Manaea — proj 6.3, recorded 7
Cam Schlittler — proj 5.9, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Ian Seymour — proj 3.8, recorded 9
Reid Detmers — proj 5.8, recorded 11

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Ronald Acuña Jr.. Model HR probability 23.8% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

See today's slate the same way

This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

3-day free trial. The full results archive stays free.

Start Free Trial