Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 15, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
405
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
August 15, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | — | vs Ian Seymour | 31.2% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Sonny Gray | 30.0% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Royce Lewis | — | vs Jesús Luzardo | 28.5% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Brady Singer | 28.0% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Reid Detmers | 27.9% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Tyler O'Neill | — | vs Ian Seymour | 27.0% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Owen Caissie | — | vs Brady Singer | 26.6% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Byron Buxton | — | vs Jesús Luzardo | 26.1% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Reid Detmers | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Jacob Misiorowski | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Jahmai Jones | — | vs Jared Jones | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | vs Joey Cantillo | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Cam Schlittler | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | vs Troy Melton | 24.1% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesús Luzardo | Minnesota Twins | 7.7 | 9 | +1.3 | |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Los Angeles Dodgers | 6.7 | 6 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Sean Manaea | Washington Nationals | 6.3 | 7 | +0.7 | On Target |
| MacKenzie Gore | Athletics | 6.2 | 5 | -1.2 | |
| Cam Schlittler | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.9 | 7 | +1.1 | |
| Connor Prielipp | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.9 | 6 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Reid Detmers | Kansas City Royals | 5.8 | 11 | +5.2 | |
| Troy Melton | Chicago White Sox | 5.7 | 4 | -1.7 | |
| Sonny Gray | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| J.T. Ginn | Texas Rangers | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 | |
| Logan Webb | Colorado Rockies | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 | |
| Jared Jones | Boston Red Sox | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 | |
| Ryan Gusto | Cincinnati Reds | 5.0 | 6 | +1.0 | |
| Joey Cantillo | San Diego Padres | 4.9 | 7 | +2.1 | |
| Hayden Wesneski | Seattle Mariners | 4.6 | 6 | +1.4 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Joey Cantillo | 62.6% | No Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Emerson Hancock | 62.2% | No Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Jacob Misiorowski | 62.0% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 61.0% | Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Michael McGreevy | 60.8% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Braydon Fisher | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Connor Prielipp | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Iván Herrera | — | vs Matthew Boyd | 60.7% | No Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | — | vs Ryan Gusto | 60.7% | No Hit |
| Trent Grisham | — | vs Braydon Fisher | 60.6% | No Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Connor Prielipp | 60.6% | Hit |
| Andrew Vaughn | — | vs Justin Wrobleski | 60.5% | Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | — | vs Hayden Wesneski | 60.4% | No Hit |
| Jake Bauers | — | vs Justin Wrobleski | 60.4% | No Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | — | vs Kyle Bradish | 60.4% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Ronald Acuña Jr. — 23.8% HR probability
- Pete Alonso — 19.1% HR probability
- Michael Conforto — 17.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Jesús Luzardo — proj 7.7, recorded 9
- Sean Manaea — proj 6.3, recorded 7
- Cam Schlittler — proj 5.9, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Ian Seymour — proj 3.8, recorded 9
- Reid Detmers — proj 5.8, recorded 11
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Ronald Acuña Jr.. Model HR probability 23.8% — result: Home Run.
Live on EdgeRanked
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
3-day free trial. The full results archive stays free.
Explore More