MLB Results — July 12, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 12, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Joey Cantillo 31.1% No Home Run

#2 Brandon Lowe— · vs Robert Gasser 30.8% No Home Run

#3 Jackson Merrill— · vs Kevin Gausman 30.1% No Home Run

#4 Coby Mayo— · vs Seth Lugo 27.3% No Home Run

#5 Hunter Goodman— · vs Trevor McDonald 26.5% No Home Run

#6 Heliot Ramos— · vs Michael Lorenzen 24.4% No Home Run

#7 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Tarik Skubal 24.2% No Home Run

#8 Royce Lewis— · vs José Soriano 24.2% No Home Run

#9 Colson MontgomeryChicago White Sox · vs J.T. Ginn 24.1% No Home Run

#10 Jac Caglianone— · vs Shane Baz 24.1% No Home Run

#11 Yordan Alvarez— · vs MacKenzie Gore 24.1% No Home Run

#12 Cal Raleigh— · vs Ian Seymour 23.9% No Home Run

#13 Salvador Perez— · vs Shane Baz 23.9% No Home Run

#14 Zach Neto— · vs Taj Bradley 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Willy Adames— · vs Michael Lorenzen 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Zack Wheelervs Detroit Tigers 7.4 10 +2.6

Tarik Skubalvs Philadelphia Phillies 6.8 5 -1.8

Taj Bradleyvs Los Angeles Angels 5.7 6 +0.3On target

Paul Skenesvs Milwaukee Brewers 5.6 7 +1.4

Kevin Gausmanvs San Diego Padres 5.5 8 +2.5

José Sorianovs Minnesota Twins 5.4 0 -5.4

Emmet Sheehanvs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.3 7 +1.7

MacKenzie Gorevs Houston Astros 5.1 4 -1.1

Cade Cavallivs New York Yankees 4.9 5 +0.1On target

Matthew Boydvs Cincinnati Reds 4.9 3 -1.9

Payton Tollevs New York Mets 4.9 7 +2.1

Emerson Hancockvs Tampa Bay Rays 4.9 2 -2.9

Robert Gasservs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.7 3 -1.7

JR Ritchievs St. Louis Cardinals 4.5 2 -2.5

Joey Cantillovs Miami Marlins 4.2 9 +4.8

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Mitch Bratt 62.1% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Michael Lorenzen 61.7% No Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Andrew Abbott 61.6% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs MacKenzie Gore 61.6% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Kevin Gausman 61.1% No Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Matthew Boyd 61.0% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Payton Tolle 60.9% No Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Cade Cavalli 60.9% Hit

Brandon Nimmo— · vs Cristian Javier 60.8% Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Robert Gasser 60.8% Hit

James Wood— · vs Will Warren 60.8% Hit

Shea Langeliers— · vs Noah Schultz 60.7% Hit

Andy Pages— · vs Mitch Bratt 60.6% No Hit

Otto Lopez— · vs Joey Cantillo 60.6% No Hit

Yandy Díaz— · vs Emerson Hancock 60.5% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Francisco Lindor — 23.2% HR probability
James Wood — 21.9% HR probability
Shohei Ohtani — 18.6% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Zack Wheeler — proj 7.4, recorded 10
Taj Bradley — proj 5.7, recorded 6
Paul Skenes — proj 5.6, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

José Soriano — proj 5.4, recorded 0
Shane Baz — proj 4.2, recorded 9

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Francisco Lindor. Model HR probability 23.2% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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