Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 12, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
406
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
July 12, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | Detroit Tigers | 7.4 | 10 | +2.6 | |
| Tarik Skubal | Philadelphia Phillies | 6.8 | 5 | -1.8 | |
| Taj Bradley | Los Angeles Angels | 5.7 | 6 | +0.3 | On Target |
| Paul Skenes | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| Kevin Gausman | San Diego Padres | 5.5 | 8 | +2.5 | |
| José Soriano | Minnesota Twins | 5.4 | 0 | -5.4 | |
| Emmet Sheehan | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 | |
| MacKenzie Gore | Houston Astros | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Cade Cavalli | New York Yankees | 4.9 | 5 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Matthew Boyd | Cincinnati Reds | 4.9 | 3 | -1.9 | |
| Payton Tolle | New York Mets | 4.9 | 7 | +2.1 | |
| Emerson Hancock | Tampa Bay Rays | 4.9 | 2 | -2.9 | |
| Robert Gasser | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4.7 | 3 | -1.7 | |
| JR Ritchie | St. Louis Cardinals | 4.5 | 2 | -2.5 | |
| Joey Cantillo | Miami Marlins | 4.2 | 9 | +4.8 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Zack Wheeler — proj 7.4, recorded 10
- Taj Bradley — proj 5.7, recorded 6
- Paul Skenes — proj 5.6, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- José Soriano — proj 5.4, recorded 0
- Shane Baz — proj 4.2, recorded 9
Highest Performing Projection — Strikeout Projection: Zack Wheeler. Projected 7.4 strikeouts — recorded 10.
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