MLB Results — July 11, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 11, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Noah Cameron 30.8% Home Run

#2 Brandon Lowe— · vs Brandon Sproat 30.6% No Home Run

#3 Jackson Merrill— · vs Trey Yesavage 30.4% No Home Run

#4 Willy Adames— · vs Kyle Freeland 29.8% No Home Run

#5 Heliot Ramos— · vs Kyle Freeland 27.9% No Home Run

#6 Hunter Goodman— · vs Tyler Mahle 26.6% No Home Run

#7 Zach Neto— · vs Joe Ryan 26.1% No Home Run

#8 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Tanner Bibee 25.3% No Home Run

#9 Casey Schmitt— · vs Kyle Freeland 25.2% Home Run

#10 Cal Raleigh— · vs Griffin Jax 25.0% No Home Run

#11 Royce Lewis— · vs Ryan Johnson 24.4% Home Run

#12 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Casey Mize 24.4% No Home Run

#13 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Kumar Rocker 24.2% Home Run

#14 Joc Pederson— · vs Peter Lambert 24.1% No Home Run

#15 Junior Caminero— · vs Logan Gilbert 24.1% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Cam Schlittlervs Washington Nationals 6.8 6 -0.8On target

Joe Ryanvs Los Angeles Angels 6.3 6 -0.3On target

Griffin Jaxvs Seattle Mariners 6.1 3 -3.1

Eury Pérezvs Cleveland Guardians 6.0 6 +0.0On target

Logan Gilbertvs Tampa Bay Rays 5.7 5 -0.7On target

Casey Mizevs Philadelphia Phillies 5.6 5 -0.6On target

Kyle Bradishvs Kansas City Royals 5.5 5 -0.5On target

Brandon Sproatvs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.4 3 -2.4

Braxton Ashcraftvs Milwaukee Brewers 5.3 6 +0.7On target

Cristopher Sánchezvs Detroit Tigers 5.3 7 +1.7

Yoshinobu Yamamotovs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.2 6 +0.8On target

Shane Drohanvs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.2 6 +0.8On target

Gage Jumpvs Chicago White Sox 4.9 7 +2.1

Peter Lambertvs Texas Rangers 4.9 7 +2.1

Trey Yesavagevs San Diego Padres 4.9 1 -3.9

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Brandon Pfaadt 64.5% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs PJ Poulin 64.5% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Kumar Rocker 64.5% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Javier Assad 63.3% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Nick Lodolo 62.6% Hit

Rafael Flores Jr.— · vs Shane Drohan 62.6% Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Tanner Bibee 62.4% Hit

Paul Goldschmidt— · vs PJ Poulin 62.3% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Kyle Freeland 62.1% No Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Trey Yesavage 61.7% No Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Bryan Hudson 61.1% No Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Casey Mize 61.0% Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Brandon Pfaadt 61.0% Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Brandon Sproat 60.9% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Casey Mize 60.9% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Coby Mayo — 30.8% HR probability
Casey Schmitt — 25.2% HR probability
Royce Lewis — 24.4% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Eury Pérez — proj 6.0, recorded 6
Braxton Ashcraft — proj 5.3, recorded 6
Cristopher Sánchez — proj 5.3, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Noah Cameron — proj 4.2, recorded 9
Kyle Freeland — proj 4.2, recorded 9

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Coby Mayo. Model HR probability 30.8% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

See today's slate the same way

This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

3-day free trial. The full results archive stays free.

Start Free Trial