MLB Results — September 29, 2026

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MLB Model Results — September 29, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Heliot Ramos— · vs Payton Tolle 24.4% No Home Run

#2 Pete Crow-Armstrong— · vs Michael King 23.9% No Home Run

#3 Jackson Merrill— · vs Matthew Boyd 23.9% No Home Run

#4 Paul Goldschmidt— · vs Payton Tolle 23.9% No Home Run

#5 Matt Olson— · vs Jesús Luzardo 23.9% No Home Run

#6 Austin Riley— · vs Jesús Luzardo 23.9% Home Run

#7 Ronald Acuña Jr.— · vs Jesús Luzardo 23.9% No Home Run

#8 Michael Harris II— · vs Jesús Luzardo 23.9% No Home Run

#9 Andrew Benintendi— · vs AJ Blubaugh 23.9% No Home Run

#10 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Chris Sale 23.9% No Home Run

#11 Nelson Velázquez— · vs Hagen Smith 23.3% Home Run

#12 Michael Conforto— · vs Michael King 23.2% No Home Run

#13 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Hagen Smith 18.8% No Home Run

#14 Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Matthew Boyd 18.6% Home Run

#15 Munetaka Murakami— · vs AJ Blubaugh 18.6% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Chris Salevs Philadelphia Phillies 7.8 9 +1.2

Payton Tollevs New York Yankees 7.3 4 -3.3

Cam Schlittlervs Boston Red Sox 7.1 10 +2.9

Jesús Luzardovs Atlanta Braves 6.8 6 -0.8On target

Michael Kingvs Chicago Cubs 5.2 8 +2.8

Matthew Boydvs San Diego Padres 4.3 4 -0.3On target

Hagen Smithvs Houston Astros 2.1 1 -1.1

AJ Blubaughvs Chicago White Sox 1.4 0 -1.4

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Matthew Boyd 64.2% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Michael King 60.3% Hit

Paul Goldschmidt— · vs Payton Tolle 59.5% No Hit

Heliot Ramos— · vs Payton Tolle 59.0% No Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Payton Tolle 58.5% Hit

Pete Crow-Armstrong— · vs Michael King 57.9% No Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Hagen Smith 57.9% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Chris Sale 57.1% No Hit

Austin Hays— · vs Matthew Boyd 57.0% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Chris Sale 56.8% Hit

Derek Hill— · vs Chris Sale 56.7% No Hit

Jackson Merrill— · vs Matthew Boyd 56.7% Hit

Sam Antonacci— · vs AJ Blubaugh 56.5% Hit

Ian Happ— · vs Michael King 56.2% No Hit

Alex Bregman— · vs Michael King 56.0% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Austin Riley — 23.9% HR probability
Nelson Velázquez — 23.3% HR probability
Fernando Tatis Jr. — 18.6% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Chris Sale — proj 7.8, recorded 9
Cam Schlittler — proj 7.1, recorded 10
Michael King — proj 5.2, recorded 8

Biggest Surprises

Payton Tolle — proj 7.3, recorded 4
Cam Schlittler — proj 7.1, recorded 10

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Austin Riley. Model HR probability 23.9% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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