MLB Model Results — September 29, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | Philadelphia Phillies | 7.8 | 9 | +1.2 | |
| Payton Tolle | New York Yankees | 7.3 | 4 | -3.3 | |
| Cam Schlittler | Boston Red Sox | 7.1 | 10 | +2.9 | |
| Jesús Luzardo | Atlanta Braves | 6.8 | 6 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Michael King | Chicago Cubs | 5.2 | 8 | +2.8 | |
| Matthew Boyd | San Diego Padres | 4.3 | 4 | -0.3 | On Target |
| Hagen Smith | Houston Astros | 2.1 | 1 | -1.1 | |
| AJ Blubaugh | Chicago White Sox | 1.4 | 0 | -1.4 |
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Chris Sale — proj 7.8, recorded 9
- Cam Schlittler — proj 7.1, recorded 10
- Michael King — proj 5.2, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Payton Tolle — proj 7.3, recorded 4
- Cam Schlittler — proj 7.1, recorded 10
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
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