MLB Model Results — September 27, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | St. Louis Cardinals | 7.8 | 5 | -2.8 | |
| Logan Gilbert | Los Angeles Angels | 7.2 | 8 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Jared Jones | Detroit Tigers | 6.9 | 5 | -1.9 | |
| Sean Manaea | Washington Nationals | 6.0 | 3 | -3.0 | |
| Dean Kremer | Texas Rangers | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 | |
| Shota Imanaga | Boston Red Sox | 5.9 | 3 | -2.9 | |
| Zack Wheeler | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 | On Target |
| JR Ritchie | Miami Marlins | 5.8 | 2 | -3.8 | |
| Parker Messick | Kansas City Royals | 5.7 | 2 | -3.7 | |
| Michael Soroka | San Diego Padres | 5.6 | 4 | -1.6 | |
| Peter Lambert | Athletics | 5.3 | 1 | -4.3 | |
| MacKenzie Gore | Minnesota Twins | 4.5 | 0 | -4.5 | |
| Yusei Kikuchi | Seattle Mariners | 4.4 | 7 | +2.6 | |
| Max Scherzer | Cincinnati Reds | 4.3 | 7 | +2.7 | |
| Kyle Freeland | Chicago White Sox | 3.9 | 2 | -1.9 |
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Logan Gilbert — proj 7.2, recorded 8
- Yusei Kikuchi — proj 4.4, recorded 7
- Max Scherzer — proj 4.3, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- MacKenzie Gore — proj 4.5, recorded 0
- Peter Lambert — proj 5.3, recorded 1
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
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