MLB Results — September 27, 2026

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MLB Model Results — September 27, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Anthony Kay 31.5% No Home Run

#2 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Brandon Williamson 31.1% No Home Run

#3 Nolan Gorman— · vs Jacob Misiorowski 30.6% No Home Run

#4 Jahmai Jones— · vs Shota Imanaga 26.2% No Home Run

#5 Zach Neto— · vs Logan Gilbert 26.2% No Home Run

#6 Munetaka Murakami— · vs Kyle Freeland 25.2% No Home Run

#7 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Nick Martinez 24.4% No Home Run

#8 Jac Caglianone— · vs Parker Messick 24.4% No Home Run

#9 Salvador Perez— · vs Parker Messick 24.4% No Home Run

#10 Royce Lewis— · vs MacKenzie Gore 24.2% Home Run

#11 Randal Grichuk— · vs Kyle Freeland 24.1% Home Run

#12 Francisco Lindor— · vs DJ Herz 23.9% Home Run

#13 Michael Conforto— · vs Tanner Houck 23.9% No Home Run

#14 Riley Greene— · vs Jared Jones 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Colson Montgomery— · vs Kyle Freeland 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Jacob Misiorowskivs St. Louis Cardinals 7.8 5 -2.8

Logan Gilbertvs Los Angeles Angels 7.2 8 +0.8On target

Jared Jonesvs Detroit Tigers 6.9 5 -1.9

Sean Manaeavs Washington Nationals 6.0 3 -3.0

Dean Kremervs Texas Rangers 5.9 4 -1.9

Shota Imanagavs Boston Red Sox 5.9 3 -2.9

Zack Wheelervs Tampa Bay Rays 5.8 5 -0.8On target

JR Ritchievs Miami Marlins 5.8 2 -3.8

Parker Messickvs Kansas City Royals 5.7 2 -3.7

Michael Sorokavs San Diego Padres 5.6 4 -1.6

Peter Lambertvs Athletics 5.3 1 -4.3

MacKenzie Gorevs Minnesota Twins 4.5 0 -4.5

Yusei Kikuchivs Seattle Mariners 4.4 7 +2.6

Max Scherzervs Cincinnati Reds 4.3 7 +2.7

Kyle Freelandvs Chicago White Sox 3.9 2 -1.9

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Carson Seymour 64.4% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Seth Johnson 63.0% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Nick Martinez 62.8% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Max Scherzer 62.3% Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Andre Pallante 61.5% Hit

Brett Baty— · vs DJ Herz 61.2% No Hit

Juan Soto— · vs DJ Herz 61.0% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Nick Martinez 61.0% Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs Yusei Kikuchi 60.6% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Nick Martinez 60.6% No Hit

Zack Gelof— · vs Peter Lambert 60.5% No Hit

Randal Grichuk— · vs Kyle Freeland 60.5% Hit

Brice TurangMilwaukee Brewers · vs Andre Pallante 60.4% Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Carson Seymour 60.4% No Hit

George Springer— · vs Brandon Williamson 60.4% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Royce Lewis — 24.2% HR probability
Randal Grichuk — 24.1% HR probability
Heriberto Hernández — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Logan Gilbert — proj 7.2, recorded 8
Yusei Kikuchi — proj 4.4, recorded 7
Max Scherzer — proj 4.3, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

MacKenzie Gore — proj 4.5, recorded 0
Peter Lambert — proj 5.3, recorded 1

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Royce Lewis. Model HR probability 24.2% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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