MLB Results — September 30, 2026

MLB is in the offseason. It's back in late March.

Here's what's live tonight:

NBA Matchup Lab NBA projections NFL Matchup Lab NFL projections NBA defense vs position NFL defense vs position

MLB Model Results — September 30, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Sean Burke 27.2% No Home Run

#2 Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Kevin Gausman 26.2% No Home Run

#3 Jackson Merrill— · vs Kevin Gausman 25.4% No Home Run

#4 Austin Riley— · vs Cristopher Sánchez 23.9% No Home Run

#5 Ronald Acuña Jr.— · vs Cristopher Sánchez 23.9% No Home Run

#6 Andrew Benintendi— · vs Hunter Brown 23.9% No Home Run

#7 Matt Olson— · vs Cristopher Sánchez 23.2% No Home Run

#8 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Tyler Mahle 18.9% Home Run

#9 Munetaka Murakami— · vs Hunter Brown 18.6% No Home Run

#10 Michael Harris II— · vs Cristopher Sánchez 18.5% No Home Run

#11 Jahmai Jones— · vs Max Fried 18.0% No Home Run

#12 Christian Walker— · vs Sean Burke 17.8% No Home Run

#13 Pete Crow-Armstrong— · vs Nick Pivetta 17.2% No Home Run

#14 Isaac Paredes— · vs Sean Burke 17.2% No Home Run

#15 Cam Smith— · vs Sean Burke 17.1% Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Cristopher Sánchezvs Atlanta Braves 7.0 6 -1.0On target

Hunter Brownvs Chicago White Sox 6.1 2 -4.1

Sonny Grayvs New York Yankees 6.0 5 -1.0

Sean Burkevs Houston Astros 6.0 8 +2.0

Kevin Gausmanvs San Diego Padres 5.8 1 -4.8

Max Friedvs Boston Red Sox 5.8 6 +0.2On target

Nick Pivettavs Chicago Cubs 5.7 4 -1.7

Tyler Mahlevs Philadelphia Phillies 5.5 6 +0.5On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Bryce Harper— · vs Tyler Mahle 61.4% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Sean Burke 61.3% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Tyler Mahle 60.5% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Kevin Gausman 58.7% No Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Sonny Gray 58.6% Hit

Wilyer Abreu— · vs Max Fried 58.2% No Hit

Luis García Jr.— · vs Sonny Gray 58.1% Hit

Willson Contreras— · vs Max Fried 57.5% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Nick Pivetta 57.3% Hit

Adley Rutschman— · vs Max Fried 57.2% No Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Tyler Mahle 57.1% Hit

Jackson Merrill— · vs Kevin Gausman 57.1% Hit

Trea Turner— · vs Tyler Mahle 57.0% Hit

Bryson Stott— · vs Tyler Mahle 56.7% Hit

Jazz Chisholm Jr.— · vs Sonny Gray 56.5% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Kyle Schwarber — 18.9% HR probability
Cam Smith — 17.1% HR probability
Luis García Jr. — 16.4% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Sean Burke — proj 6.0, recorded 8
Max Fried — proj 5.8, recorded 6
Tyler Mahle — proj 5.5, recorded 6

Biggest Surprises

Kevin Gausman — proj 5.8, recorded 1
Hunter Brown — proj 6.1, recorded 2

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kyle Schwarber. Model HR probability 18.9% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

See today's slate the same way

This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

3-day free trial. The full results archive stays free.

Start Free Trial