MLB Model Results — September 30, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sánchez | Atlanta Braves | 7.0 | 6 | -1.0 | On Target |
| Hunter Brown | Chicago White Sox | 6.1 | 2 | -4.1 | |
| Sonny Gray | New York Yankees | 6.0 | 5 | -1.0 | |
| Sean Burke | Houston Astros | 6.0 | 8 | +2.0 | |
| Kevin Gausman | San Diego Padres | 5.8 | 1 | -4.8 | |
| Max Fried | Boston Red Sox | 5.8 | 6 | +0.2 | On Target |
| Nick Pivetta | Chicago Cubs | 5.7 | 4 | -1.7 | |
| Tyler Mahle | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.5 | 6 | +0.5 | On Target |
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Sean Burke — proj 6.0, recorded 8
- Max Fried — proj 5.8, recorded 6
- Tyler Mahle — proj 5.5, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Kevin Gausman — proj 5.8, recorded 1
- Hunter Brown — proj 6.1, recorded 2
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
3-day free trial. The full results archive stays free.