MLB Model Results — September 25, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | San Francisco Giants | 7.4 | 10 | +2.6 | |
| Trevor Rogers | New York Yankees | 6.5 | 4 | -2.5 | |
| Hunter Brown | Athletics | 6.5 | 4 | -2.5 | |
| Andrew Alvarez | New York Mets | 6.3 | 7 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Bryce Miller | Los Angeles Angels | 6.2 | 7 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Gavin Williams | Kansas City Royals | 6.2 | 4 | -2.2 | |
| José Soriano | Cincinnati Reds | 6.1 | 2 | -4.1 | |
| Jacob deGrom | Minnesota Twins | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Joe Ryan | Texas Rangers | 5.7 | 8 | +2.3 | |
| Sean Burke | Colorado Rockies | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Eury Pérez | Atlanta Braves | 5.5 | 8 | +2.5 | |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.5 | 10 | +4.5 | |
| Brayan Bello | Chicago Cubs | 5.3 | 2 | -3.3 | |
| David Peterson | Boston Red Sox | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Noah Cameron | Cleveland Guardians | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 |
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Tarik Skubal — proj 7.4, recorded 10
- Andrew Alvarez — proj 6.3, recorded 7
- Bryce Miller — proj 6.2, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Brendan Beck — proj 1.3, recorded 8
- Cristopher Sánchez — proj 5.5, recorded 10
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
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