MLB Results — September 25, 2026

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MLB Model Results — September 25, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Sean Burke 31.1% No Home Run

#2 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Nick Lodolo 31.0% No Home Run

#3 Kody Clemens— · vs Jacob deGrom 29.7% Home Run

#4 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Freddy Peralta 28.1% No Home Run

#5 Coby Mayo— · vs Brendan Beck 27.7% No Home Run

#6 Zach Neto— · vs Bryce Miller 25.0% Home Run

#7 Royce Lewis— · vs Jacob deGrom 25.0% No Home Run

#8 Jac Caglianone— · vs Gavin Williams 24.3% No Home Run

#9 Andrew Benintendi— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 24.1% No Home Run

#10 Jackson Merrill— · vs Brandon Pfaadt 23.9% No Home Run

#11 Mickey Moniak— · vs Sean Burke 23.9% No Home Run

#12 Brandon Lowe— · vs Jackson Jobe 23.9% No Home Run

#13 Jo Adell— · vs Noah Cameron 23.9% No Home Run

#14 Carter Jensen— · vs Gavin Williams 23.9% Home Run

#15 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Unknown Pitcher 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Tarik Skubalvs San Francisco Giants 7.4 10 +2.6

Trevor Rogersvs New York Yankees 6.5 4 -2.5

Hunter Brownvs Athletics 6.5 4 -2.5

Andrew Alvarezvs New York Mets 6.3 7 +0.7On target

Bryce Millervs Los Angeles Angels 6.2 7 +0.8On target

Gavin Williamsvs Kansas City Royals 6.2 4 -2.2

José Sorianovs Cincinnati Reds 6.1 2 -4.1

Jacob deGromvs Minnesota Twins 5.8 5 -0.8On target

Joe Ryanvs Texas Rangers 5.7 8 +2.3

Sean Burkevs Colorado Rockies 5.7 7 +1.3

Eury Pérezvs Atlanta Braves 5.5 8 +2.5

Cristopher Sánchezvs Tampa Bay Rays 5.5 10 +4.5

Brayan Bellovs Chicago Cubs 5.3 2 -3.3

David Petersonvs Boston Red Sox 5.2 6 +0.8On target

Noah Cameronvs Cleveland Guardians 5.1 3 -2.1

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Yunior Marte 63.6% No Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Jacob Lopez 63.3% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Brandon Pfaadt 63.1% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Alec Gamboa 60.9% Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Yunior Marte 60.8% No Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Michael McGreevy 59.8% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Freddy Peralta 59.7% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs José Soriano 59.4% Hit

Iván Herrera— · vs Robert Gasser 59.3% Hit

Zack Gelof— · vs Hunter Brown 59.1% No Hit

Yainer Diaz— · vs Jacob Lopez 58.9% Hit

Oneil Cruz— · vs Jackson Jobe 58.9% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Freddy Peralta 58.8% No Hit

Jose Altuve— · vs Jacob Lopez 58.8% No Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Andrew Alvarez 58.8% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Kody Clemens — 29.7% HR probability
Zach Neto — 25.0% HR probability
Salvador Perez — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Tarik Skubal — proj 7.4, recorded 10
Andrew Alvarez — proj 6.3, recorded 7
Bryce Miller — proj 6.2, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Brendan Beck — proj 1.3, recorded 8
Cristopher Sánchez — proj 5.5, recorded 10

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kody Clemens. Model HR probability 29.7% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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