MLB Results — September 26, 2026

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MLB Model Results — September 26, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Davis Martin 30.8% Home Run

#2 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Rhett Lowder 30.5% No Home Run

#3 Carter Jensen— · vs Tanner Bibee 30.0% No Home Run

#4 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Griffin Jax 28.5% No Home Run

#5 Jac Caglianone— · vs Tanner Bibee 27.9% No Home Run

#6 Brandon Lowe— · vs Justin Verlander 26.4% Home Run

#7 Salvador Perez— · vs Tanner Bibee 26.2% No Home Run

#8 Royce Lewis— · vs Nathan Eovaldi 25.4% No Home Run

#9 Nolan Gorman— · vs Dustin May 25.2% No Home Run

#10 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Jack Perkins 24.2% Home Run

#11 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Brent Suter 23.9% No Home Run

#12 Kody Clemens— · vs Nathan Eovaldi 23.9% No Home Run

#13 Jackson Merrill— · vs Unknown Pitcher 23.9% No Home Run

#14 Francisco Lindor— · vs Connelly Early 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Nelson Velázquez— · vs Jack Perkins 23.8% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Jack Perkinsvs Houston Astros 6.5 9 +2.5

Blake Snellvs San Francisco Giants 6.5 3 -3.5

Jonah Tongvs Washington Nationals 6.4 9 +2.6

Kade Andersonvs Los Angeles Angels 5.8 4 -1.8

Trey Yesavagevs Cincinnati Reds 5.8 3 -2.8

Griffin Jaxvs Philadelphia Phillies 5.7 1 -4.7

Nathan Eovaldivs Minnesota Twins 5.5 3 -2.5

Quinn Mathewsvs Milwaukee Brewers 5.2 7 +1.8

Aaron Nolavs Tampa Bay Rays 5.0 0 -5.0

Michael Wachavs Cleveland Guardians 4.9 4 -0.9On target

Connelly Earlyvs New York Mets 4.9 1 -3.9

Ryan Johnsonvs Seattle Mariners 4.5 3 -1.5

Davis Martinvs Colorado Rockies 4.3 1 -3.3

Hayden Wesneskivs Athletics 4.3 5 +0.7On target

Tanner Bibeevs Kansas City Royals 4.2 6 +1.8

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Jack Perkins 62.2% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Unknown Pitcher 61.6% No Hit

Oneil Cruz— · vs Justin Verlander 61.5% No Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Matt Wilkinson 61.1% Hit

Randal Grichuk— · vs Jose Quintana 60.6% No Hit

Brandon Lowe— · vs Justin Verlander 60.6% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Griffin Jax 60.5% Hit

Miguel Vargas— · vs Jose Quintana 60.1% No Hit

Zack Gelof— · vs Hayden Wesneski 60.0% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Trey Yesavage 59.9% No Hit

Jackson ChourioMilwaukee Brewers · vs Quinn Mathews 59.8% Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Quinn Mathews 59.7% No Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Justin Verlander 59.7% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Aaron Nola 59.5% Hit

Ryan O'Hearn— · vs Justin Verlander 59.5% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Hunter Goodman — 30.8% HR probability
Brandon Lowe — 26.4% HR probability
Yordan Alvarez — 24.2% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Jack Perkins — proj 6.5, recorded 9
Jonah Tong — proj 6.4, recorded 9
Quinn Mathews — proj 5.2, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Aaron Nola — proj 5.0, recorded 0
Griffin Jax — proj 5.7, recorded 1

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 30.8% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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