MLB Model Results — September 26, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Perkins | Houston Astros | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 | |
| Blake Snell | San Francisco Giants | 6.5 | 3 | -3.5 | |
| Jonah Tong | Washington Nationals | 6.4 | 9 | +2.6 | |
| Kade Anderson | Los Angeles Angels | 5.8 | 4 | -1.8 | |
| Trey Yesavage | Cincinnati Reds | 5.8 | 3 | -2.8 | |
| Griffin Jax | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.7 | 1 | -4.7 | |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Minnesota Twins | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 | |
| Quinn Mathews | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.2 | 7 | +1.8 | |
| Aaron Nola | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.0 | 0 | -5.0 | |
| Michael Wacha | Cleveland Guardians | 4.9 | 4 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Connelly Early | New York Mets | 4.9 | 1 | -3.9 | |
| Ryan Johnson | Seattle Mariners | 4.5 | 3 | -1.5 | |
| Davis Martin | Colorado Rockies | 4.3 | 1 | -3.3 | |
| Hayden Wesneski | Athletics | 4.3 | 5 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Tanner Bibee | Kansas City Royals | 4.2 | 6 | +1.8 |
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Jack Perkins — proj 6.5, recorded 9
- Jonah Tong — proj 6.4, recorded 9
- Quinn Mathews — proj 5.2, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Aaron Nola — proj 5.0, recorded 0
- Griffin Jax — proj 5.7, recorded 1
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
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