MLB Results — September 24, 2026

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MLB Model Results — September 24, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 31.7% No Home Run

#2 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Mason Barnett 27.3% No Home Run

#3 Michael Conforto— · vs Tyler Phillips 27.1% No Home Run

#4 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Shane Drohan 25.4% No Home Run

#5 Pete Crow-Armstrong— · vs Tyler Phillips 25.2% No Home Run

#6 Matt Olson— · vs Brady Singer 24.4% No Home Run

#7 Michael Harris II— · vs Brady Singer 24.4% No Home Run

#8 Brandon Lowe— · vs Kyle Leahy 24.4% No Home Run

#9 Ronald Acuña Jr.— · vs Brady Singer 24.2% No Home Run

#10 Heliot Ramos— · vs Ian Seymour 24.1% No Home Run

#11 Austin Riley— · vs Brady Singer 24.1% Home Run

#12 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Matthew Boyd 23.9% No Home Run

#13 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Bryse Wilson 23.9% No Home Run

#14 Carter Jensen— · vs David Sandlin 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Cal Raleigh— · vs Grayson Rodriguez 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Ian Seymourvs New York Yankees 7.6 3 -4.6

Tyler Glasnowvs San Diego Padres 7.2 11 +3.8

Bryan Woovs Los Angeles Angels 7.0 8 +1.0On target

Tyler Mahlevs Cincinnati Reds 6.3 4 -2.3

Cam Schlittlervs Tampa Bay Rays 5.8 5 -0.8On target

Paul Skenesvs St. Louis Cardinals 5.8 8 +2.2

Shane Drohanvs Philadelphia Phillies 5.7 2 -3.7

Peter Lambertvs Athletics 5.7 6 +0.3On target

David Sandlinvs Kansas City Royals 5.5 7 +1.5

Nick Pivettavs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.1 7 +1.9

Ranger Suarezvs Cleveland Guardians 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Eduardo Rodriguezvs Colorado Rockies 4.8 3 -1.8

Zac Thorntonvs Texas Rangers 4.8 4 -0.8On target

Matthew Boydvs Miami Marlins 4.6 3 -1.6

Andrew Paintervs Milwaukee Brewers 4.5 8 +3.5

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Mason Barnett 61.9% Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Kumar Rocker 61.7% Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Nick Pivetta 61.6% Hit

Oneil Cruz— · vs Kyle Leahy 61.4% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Kumar Rocker 61.2% No Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Tyler Mahle 60.5% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Tyler Glasnow 60.5% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Tyler Phillips 60.4% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Shane Drohan 60.2% Hit

Gabriel Moreno— · vs Tanner Gordon 60.1% Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Andrew Painter 60.0% Hit

Brandon Lowe— · vs Kyle Leahy 60.0% Hit

Derek Hill— · vs Shane Drohan 59.9% No Hit

Pete Crow-Armstrong— · vs Tyler Phillips 59.8% Hit

Jake McCarthy— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 59.8% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Austin Riley — 24.1% HR probability
Salvador Perez — 23.9% HR probability
Alec Burleson — 23.2% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Tyler Glasnow — proj 7.2, recorded 11
Bryan Woo — proj 7.0, recorded 8
Paul Skenes — proj 5.8, recorded 8

Biggest Surprises

Mason Barnett — proj 1.2, recorded 8
Ian Seymour — proj 7.6, recorded 3

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Austin Riley. Model HR probability 24.1% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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