MLB Results — September 23, 2026

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MLB Model Results — September 23, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Merrill Kelly 31.8% No Home Run

#2 Coby Mayo— · vs Max Scherzer 31.1% No Home Run

#3 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Chris Bassitt 30.8% No Home Run

#4 Zach Neto— · vs Jeffrey Springs 30.6% No Home Run

#5 Nolan Gorman— · vs Lake Bachar 26.4% No Home Run

#6 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Kevin Gausman 26.2% No Home Run

#7 Austin Riley— · vs Andrew Abbott 25.4% Home Run

#8 Mickey Moniak— · vs Merrill Kelly 25.3% No Home Run

#9 Jahmai Jones— · vs Foster Griffin 25.0% No Home Run

#10 Brandon Lowe— · vs Matthew Liberatore 24.4% Home Run

#11 Jac Caglianone— · vs Bryan Hudson 24.2% No Home Run

#12 Max Muncy— · vs Robbie Ray 24.2% No Home Run

#13 Kyle Stowers— · vs Kevin Gausman 24.1% Home Run

#14 Matt Olson— · vs Andrew Abbott 24.1% Home Run

#15 Michael Harris II— · vs Andrew Abbott 24.1% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Chris Salevs Cincinnati Reds 8.6 10 +1.4

Logan Hendersonvs Philadelphia Phillies 7.1 3 -4.1

Yoshinobu Yamamotovs San Diego Padres 6.8 4 -2.8

Nolan McLeanvs Texas Rangers 6.2 5 -1.2

Walbert Ureñavs Athletics 6.0 2 -4.0

Connor Prielippvs San Francisco Giants 6.0 3 -3.0

Kevin Gausmanvs Miami Marlins 6.0 7 +1.0

Aaron Nolavs Milwaukee Brewers 5.7 8 +2.3

Sonny Grayvs Cleveland Guardians 5.4 3 -2.4

Matthew Liberatorevs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.3 6 +0.7On target

George Kirbyvs Houston Astros 5.2 5 -0.2On target

Gerrit Colevs Tampa Bay Rays 5.0 8 +3.0

Seth Lugovs Chicago White Sox 4.6 3 -1.6

Jeffrey Springsvs Los Angeles Angels 4.4 3 -1.4

Foster Griffinvs Boston Red Sox 4.4 7 +2.6

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Brett Baty— · vs Cody Bradford 62.2% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs George Kirby 62.1% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Cody Bradford 61.9% Hit

TJ Rumfield— · vs Merrill Kelly 61.5% No Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto 61.5% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Chris Sale 61.1% No Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Mason Englert 60.8% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Ryan Gusto 60.8% Hit

Jake McCarthy— · vs Merrill Kelly 60.8% Hit

Gabriel Moreno— · vs Mason Adams 60.7% Hit

Bo Bichette— · vs Cody Bradford 60.7% No Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Logan Henderson 60.6% No Hit

Gunnar Henderson— · vs Max Scherzer 60.3% No Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Kevin Gausman 60.3% Hit

Ketel Marte— · vs Mason Adams 60.2% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Austin Riley — 25.4% HR probability
Brandon Lowe — 24.4% HR probability
Matt Olson — 24.1% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Chris Sale — proj 8.6, recorded 10
Kevin Gausman — proj 6.0, recorded 7
Aaron Nola — proj 5.7, recorded 8

Biggest Surprises

Mason Adams — proj 3.8, recorded 8
Logan Henderson — proj 7.1, recorded 3

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Austin Riley. Model HR probability 25.4% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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