MLB Model Results — September 23, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | Cincinnati Reds | 8.6 | 10 | +1.4 | |
| Logan Henderson | Philadelphia Phillies | 7.1 | 3 | -4.1 | |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | San Diego Padres | 6.8 | 4 | -2.8 | |
| Nolan McLean | Texas Rangers | 6.2 | 5 | -1.2 | |
| Walbert Ureña | Athletics | 6.0 | 2 | -4.0 | |
| Connor Prielipp | San Francisco Giants | 6.0 | 3 | -3.0 | |
| Kevin Gausman | Miami Marlins | 6.0 | 7 | +1.0 | |
| Aaron Nola | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.7 | 8 | +2.3 | |
| Sonny Gray | Cleveland Guardians | 5.4 | 3 | -2.4 | |
| Matthew Liberatore | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 | On Target |
| George Kirby | Houston Astros | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Gerrit Cole | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.0 | 8 | +3.0 | |
| Seth Lugo | Chicago White Sox | 4.6 | 3 | -1.6 | |
| Jeffrey Springs | Los Angeles Angels | 4.4 | 3 | -1.4 | |
| Foster Griffin | Boston Red Sox | 4.4 | 7 | +2.6 |
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Chris Sale — proj 8.6, recorded 10
- Kevin Gausman — proj 6.0, recorded 7
- Aaron Nola — proj 5.7, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Mason Adams — proj 3.8, recorded 8
- Logan Henderson — proj 7.1, recorded 3
See today's slate the same way
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