MLB Results — August 26, 2026

MLB Model Results — August 26, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Brandon Lowe— · vs Randy Vásquez 30.6% No Home Run

#2 Hunter Goodman— · vs Matt Waldron 27.3% Home Run

#3 Matt Olson— · vs Roki Sasaki 26.6% Home Run

#4 Trent Grisham— · vs Peter Lambert 25.4% No Home Run

#5 Shohei Ohtani— · vs AJ Smith-Shawver 25.2% No Home Run

#6 Nolan Gorman— · vs Kyle Bradish 24.3% Home Run

#7 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Bryan Woo 24.1% Home Run

#8 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Randy Dobnak 24.1% No Home Run

#9 Jac Caglianone— · vs Spencer Miles 24.1% No Home Run

#10 Luis García Jr.— · vs Peter Lambert 24.0% Home Run

#11 Austin Riley— · vs Roki Sasaki 23.9% No Home Run

#12 Jackson Merrill— · vs Bubba Chandler 23.9% No Home Run

#13 Royce Lewis— · vs J.T. Ginn 23.9% No Home Run

#14 Joc Pederson— · vs Sean Burke 23.9% Home Run

#15 Ronald Acuña Jr.— · vs Roki Sasaki 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Jesús Luzardovs Seattle Mariners 7.6 9 +1.4

Sean Burkevs Texas Rangers 6.6 3 -3.6

MacKenzie Gorevs Chicago White Sox 6.5 4 -2.5

Bryan Woovs Philadelphia Phillies 6.0 5 -1.0On target

Connor Prielippvs Athletics 5.8 5 -0.8On target

Logan Webbvs Cincinnati Reds 5.8 6 +0.2On target

Sonny Grayvs Miami Marlins 5.7 5 -0.7On target

Joey Cantillovs Los Angeles Angels 5.7 1 -4.7

Peter Lambertvs New York Yankees 5.6 5 -0.6On target

Dustin Mayvs New York Mets 5.1 0 -5.1

Michael McGreevyvs Baltimore Orioles 4.9 3 -1.9

J.T. Ginnvs Minnesota Twins 4.8 3 -1.8

Freddy Peraltavs Detroit Tigers 4.8 4 -0.8On target

Kyle Bradishvs St. Louis Cardinals 4.8 4 -0.8On target

Bubba Chandlervs San Diego Padres 4.5 3 -1.5

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Elmer Rodríguez 64.5% Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs AJ Smith-Shawver 64.5% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 62.1% No Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Bubba Chandler 62.1% No Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs AJ Smith-Shawver 62.0% Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Tanner Gordon 61.8% No Hit

Oneil Cruz— · vs Randy Vásquez 61.5% No Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Bryan Woo 61.5% Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Dustin May 61.5% Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Sonny Gray 61.3% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Nick Lodolo 61.2% Hit

Pete Alonso— · vs Michael McGreevy 61.0% Hit

Brandon Lowe— · vs Randy Vásquez 60.9% No Hit

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.— · vs Randy Dobnak 60.6% Hit

Jose Altuve— · vs Elmer Rodríguez 60.6% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Hunter Goodman — 27.3% HR probability
Matt Olson — 26.6% HR probability
Nolan Gorman — 24.3% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Jesús Luzardo — proj 7.6, recorded 9
Logan Webb — proj 5.8, recorded 6
Eduardo Rodriguez — proj 4.4, recorded 9

Biggest Surprises

Dustin May — proj 5.1, recorded 0
Joey Cantillo — proj 5.7, recorded 1

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 27.3% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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