MLB Model Results — August 25, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams | Los Angeles Angels | 7.7 | 3 | -4.7 | |
| Tyler Glasnow | Atlanta Braves | 7.2 | 7 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Paul Skenes | San Diego Padres | 6.5 | 4 | -2.5 | |
| Kyle Harrison | New York Mets | 6.5 | 5 | -1.5 | |
| Payton Tolle | Miami Marlins | 6.0 | 7 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Aaron Nola | Seattle Mariners | 6.0 | 7 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Jacob deGrom | Chicago White Sox | 6.0 | 2 | -4.0 | |
| Ian Seymour | Detroit Tigers | 5.9 | 5 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Michael King | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.8 | 7 | +1.2 | |
| Taj Bradley | Athletics | 5.8 | 11 | +5.2 | |
| Matthew Liberatore | Baltimore Orioles | 5.8 | 7 | +1.2 | |
| Mason Adams | Washington Nationals | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Andrew Alvarez | Colorado Rockies | 5.7 | 6 | +0.3 | On Target |
| Gage Jump | Minnesota Twins | 5.1 | 9 | +3.9 | |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Chicago Cubs | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 |
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Payton Tolle — proj 6.0, recorded 7
- Aaron Nola — proj 6.0, recorded 7
- Michael King — proj 5.8, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Taj Bradley — proj 5.8, recorded 11
- George Kirby — proj 4.2, recorded 9
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
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