MLB Results — August 25, 2026

MLB Model Results — August 25, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Matthew Liberatore 31.6% No Home Run

#2 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Payton Tolle 31.1% Home Run

#3 Coby Mayo— · vs Unknown Pitcher 30.7% No Home Run

#4 Brandon Lowe— · vs Michael King 30.6% No Home Run

#5 Nolan Gorman— · vs Chris Bassitt 30.1% No Home Run

#6 Munetaka MurakamiChicago White Sox · vs Jacob deGrom 30.1% No Home Run

#7 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Seth Lugo 26.6% No Home Run

#8 Kyle Schwarber— · vs George Kirby 25.2% No Home Run

#9 Royce Lewis— · vs Gage Jump 25.2% No Home Run

#10 Hunter Goodman— · vs Andrew Alvarez 25.2% Home Run

#11 Colson MontgomeryChicago White Sox · vs Jacob deGrom 24.3% No Home Run

#12 Pete Alonso— · vs Matthew Liberatore 24.1% Home Run

#13 Trent Grisham— · vs Ethan Pecko 23.9% No Home Run

#14 Byron Buxton— · vs Gage Jump 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Jackson Merrill— · vs Paul Skenes 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Gavin Williamsvs Los Angeles Angels 7.7 3 -4.7

Tyler Glasnowvs Atlanta Braves 7.2 7 -0.2On target

Paul Skenesvs San Diego Padres 6.5 4 -2.5

Kyle Harrisonvs New York Mets 6.5 5 -1.5

Payton Tollevs Miami Marlins 6.0 7 +1.0On target

Aaron Nolavs Seattle Mariners 6.0 7 +1.0On target

Jacob deGromvs Chicago White Sox 6.0 2 -4.0

Ian Seymourvs Detroit Tigers 5.9 5 -0.9On target

Michael Kingvs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.8 7 +1.2

Taj Bradleyvs Athletics 5.8 11 +5.2

Matthew Liberatorevs Baltimore Orioles 5.8 7 +1.2

Mason Adamsvs Washington Nationals 5.7 5 -0.7On target

Andrew Alvarezvs Colorado Rockies 5.7 6 +0.3On target

Gage Jumpvs Minnesota Twins 5.1 9 +3.9

Brandon Pfaadtvs Chicago Cubs 5.0 3 -2.0

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Bryce Elder 64.4% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Will Warren 62.4% Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Bryce Elder 62.2% No Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs George Kirby 62.0% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Ethan Pecko 61.8% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Paul Skenes 61.8% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Brandon Pfaadt 61.7% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Brady Singer 61.7% Hit

Byron Buxton— · vs Gage Jump 61.6% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs George Kirby 61.2% No Hit

Oneil Cruz— · vs Michael King 61.1% Hit

Alec Burleson— · vs Chris Bassitt 61.1% Hit

Yandy Díaz— · vs Jackson Jobe 60.9% No Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Adrian Houser 60.8% Hit

Brandon Lowe— · vs Michael King 60.7% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Heriberto Hernández — 31.1% HR probability
Hunter Goodman — 25.2% HR probability
Pete Alonso — 24.1% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Payton Tolle — proj 6.0, recorded 7
Aaron Nola — proj 6.0, recorded 7
Michael King — proj 5.8, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Taj Bradley — proj 5.8, recorded 11
George Kirby — proj 4.2, recorded 9

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Heriberto Hernández. Model HR probability 31.1% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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