MLB Results — August 16, 2026

MLB is in the offseason. It's back in late March.

Here's what's live tonight:

NBA Matchup Lab NBA projections NFL Matchup Lab NFL projections NBA defense vs position NFL defense vs position

MLB Model Results — August 16, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Nick Lodolo 29.0% Home Run

#2 Jac Caglianone— · vs Ryan Johnson 28.2% No Home Run

#3 Royce Lewis— · vs Andrew Painter 28.0% No Home Run

#4 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Ryan Weathers 27.3% No Home Run

#5 Zach Neto— · vs Noah Cameron 26.1% No Home Run

#6 Salvador Perez— · vs Ryan Johnson 25.3% No Home Run

#7 Byron Buxton— · vs Andrew Painter 25.3% No Home Run

#8 Jackson Merrill— · vs Tanner Bibee 24.2% No Home Run

#9 Coby Mayo— · vs Freddy Peralta 24.2% No Home Run

#10 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Bryan Woo 24.1% No Home Run

#11 Matt Olson— · vs Michael Soroka 24.1% Home Run

#12 Michael Harris II— · vs Michael Soroka 24.1% No Home Run

#13 Munetaka Murakami— · vs Drew Anderson 24.1% Home Run

#14 Carter Jensen— · vs Ryan Johnson 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Kody Clemens— · vs Andrew Painter 23.9% Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Dylan Ceasevs New York Yankees 8.2 10 +1.8

Sean Burkevs Detroit Tigers 6.5 2 -4.5

Noah Cameronvs Los Angeles Angels 6.5 8 +1.5

Eury Pérezvs Cincinnati Reds 6.3 5 -1.3

Tarik Skubalvs Milwaukee Brewers 6.3 7 +0.7On target

Logan Hendersonvs Los Angeles Dodgers 6.0 6 -0.0On target

Bryan Woovs Houston Astros 5.9 5 -0.9On target

Hunter Brownvs Seattle Mariners 5.7 5 -0.7On target

Christian Scottvs Washington Nationals 5.6 7 +1.4

Jacob Lopezvs Texas Rangers 5.2 6 +0.8On target

Casey Mizevs Cleveland Guardians 5.1 3 -2.1

Tanner Bibeevs San Diego Padres 5.1 3 -2.1

Dean Kremervs Philadelphia Phillies 4.9 6 +1.1

Freddy Peraltavs Baltimore Orioles 4.9 2 -2.9

Ryan Weathersvs Toronto Blue Jays 4.9 4 -0.9On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Tanner Bibee 63.4% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Bryan Woo 62.1% Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Logan Henderson 62.1% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Dean Kremer 62.0% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Dean Kremer 61.6% Hit

Zack Gelof— · vs Cody Bradford 61.5% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Hunter Dobbins 61.2% Hit

Jarred Kelenic— · vs Jacob Lopez 60.9% No Hit

Byron Buxton— · vs Andrew Painter 60.9% No Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Jake Irvin 60.9% Hit

Otto Lopez— · vs Nick Lodolo 60.8% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Trevor Rogers 60.8% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Eury Pérez 60.7% No Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Gabriel Hughes 60.7% Hit

Brandon Nimmo— · vs Jacob Lopez 60.6% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Heriberto Hernández — 29.0% HR probability
Matt Olson — 24.1% HR probability
Munetaka Murakami — 24.1% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Dylan Cease — proj 8.2, recorded 10
Noah Cameron — proj 6.5, recorded 8
Tarik Skubal — proj 6.3, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Sean Burke — proj 6.5, recorded 2
Drew Anderson — proj 1.6, recorded 5

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Heriberto Hernández. Model HR probability 29.0% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

See today's slate the same way

This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

3-day free trial. The full results archive stays free.

Start Free Trial