Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 16, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
401
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
August 16, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Nick Lodolo | 29.0% | Home Run |
| #2 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Ryan Johnson | 28.2% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Royce Lewis | — | vs Andrew Painter | 28.0% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Ryan Weathers | 27.3% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Zach Neto | — | vs Noah Cameron | 26.1% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Ryan Johnson | 25.3% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Byron Buxton | — | vs Andrew Painter | 25.3% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | vs Tanner Bibee | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Coby Mayo | — | vs Freddy Peralta | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Bryan Woo | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | vs Michael Soroka | 24.1% | Home Run |
| #12 | Michael Harris II | Atlanta Braves | vs Michael Soroka | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | vs Drew Anderson | 24.1% | Home Run |
| #14 | Carter Jensen | — | vs Ryan Johnson | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Kody Clemens | — | vs Andrew Painter | 23.9% | Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | New York Yankees | 8.2 | 10 | +1.8 | |
| Sean Burke | Detroit Tigers | 6.5 | 2 | -4.5 | |
| Noah Cameron | Los Angeles Angels | 6.5 | 8 | +1.5 | |
| Eury Pérez | Cincinnati Reds | 6.3 | 5 | -1.3 | |
| Tarik Skubal | Milwaukee Brewers | 6.3 | 7 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Logan Henderson | Los Angeles Dodgers | 6.0 | 6 | -0.0 | On Target |
| Bryan Woo | Houston Astros | 5.9 | 5 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Hunter Brown | Seattle Mariners | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Christian Scott | Washington Nationals | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| Jacob Lopez | Texas Rangers | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Casey Mize | Cleveland Guardians | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 | |
| Tanner Bibee | San Diego Padres | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 | |
| Dean Kremer | Philadelphia Phillies | 4.9 | 6 | +1.1 | |
| Freddy Peralta | Baltimore Orioles | 4.9 | 2 | -2.9 | |
| Ryan Weathers | Toronto Blue Jays | 4.9 | 4 | -0.9 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Tanner Bibee | 63.4% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Bryan Woo | 62.1% | Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Logan Henderson | 62.1% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Dean Kremer | 62.0% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Dean Kremer | 61.6% | Hit |
| Zack Gelof | — | vs Cody Bradford | 61.5% | Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Hunter Dobbins | 61.2% | Hit |
| Jarred Kelenic | — | vs Jacob Lopez | 60.9% | No Hit |
| Byron Buxton | — | vs Andrew Painter | 60.9% | No Hit |
| Brett Baty | — | vs Jake Irvin | 60.9% | Hit |
| Otto Lopez | — | vs Nick Lodolo | 60.8% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | — | vs Trevor Rogers | 60.8% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | — | vs Eury Pérez | 60.7% | No Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Gabriel Hughes | 60.7% | Hit |
| Brandon Nimmo | — | vs Jacob Lopez | 60.6% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Heriberto Hernández — 29.0% HR probability
- Matt Olson — 24.1% HR probability
- Munetaka Murakami — 24.1% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Dylan Cease — proj 8.2, recorded 10
- Noah Cameron — proj 6.5, recorded 8
- Tarik Skubal — proj 6.3, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Sean Burke — proj 6.5, recorded 2
- Drew Anderson — proj 1.6, recorded 5
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Heriberto Hernández. Model HR probability 29.0% — result: Home Run.
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