MLB Results — August 12, 2026

MLB is in the offseason. It's back in late March.

Here's what's live tonight:

NBA Matchup Lab NBA projections NFL Matchup Lab NFL projections NBA defense vs position NFL defense vs position

MLB Model Results — August 12, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Merrill Kelly 31.1% No Home Run

#2 Coby Mayo— · vs Zebby Matthews 31.0% No Home Run

#3 Royce Lewis— · vs Shane Baz 30.7% No Home Run

#4 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Carmen Mlodzinski 29.8% Home Run

#5 Jac Caglianone— · vs Eric Lauer 28.7% No Home Run

#6 Salvador Perez— · vs Eric Lauer 28.0% No Home Run

#7 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Daniel Lynch IV 26.2% Home Run

#8 Andrew Benintendi— · vs Rhett Lowder 25.4% No Home Run

#9 Brandon Lowe— · vs Janson Junk 25.2% No Home Run

#10 Tyler O'Neill— · vs Zebby Matthews 24.9% No Home Run

#11 Joc Pederson— · vs George Klassen 24.2% No Home Run

#12 Jackson Merrill— · vs Dustin May 24.2% No Home Run

#13 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Ranger Suarez 24.1% No Home Run

#14 Munetaka Murakami— · vs Rhett Lowder 24.1% No Home Run

#15 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Adrian Houser 24.1% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Zack Wheelervs St. Louis Cardinals 6.0 5 -1.0On target

Jack Perkinsvs Tampa Bay Rays 5.8 2 -3.8

Bryce Millervs New York Yankees 5.7 5 -0.7On target

Tyler Mahlevs New York Mets 5.6 7 +1.4

Jackson Kentvs Chicago Cubs 5.6 6 +0.4On target

Foster Griffinvs Detroit Tigers 5.3 3 -2.3

Dustin Mayvs San Diego Padres 5.3 6 +0.7On target

José Sorianovs Boston Red Sox 5.3 4 -1.3

David Petersonvs Washington Nationals 5.2 6 +0.8On target

Ranger Suarezvs Toronto Blue Jays 5.1 2 -3.1

Will Warrenvs Seattle Mariners 5.1 3 -2.1

Kyle Leahyvs Philadelphia Phillies 5.0 6 +1.0

Shane Bazvs Minnesota Twins 4.9 2 -2.9

Robbie Rayvs Milwaukee Brewers 4.8 4 -0.8On target

Carmen Mlodzinskivs Miami Marlins 4.8 1 -3.8

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Daniel Lynch IV 63.5% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Adrian Houser 61.9% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Jackson Kent 61.7% Hit

Bobby Witt Jr.— · vs Eric Lauer 61.5% Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Tyler Mahle 61.4% No Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Luis Castillo 61.2% No Hit

Brandon Nimmo— · vs George Klassen 61.1% No Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Drew Rasmussen 60.8% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Kyle Leahy 60.8% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Kyle Leahy 60.8% No Hit

Andy Pages— · vs Daniel Lynch IV 60.8% Hit

Gunnar Henderson— · vs Zebby Matthews 60.7% No Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs David Peterson 60.6% No Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Jack Perkins 60.5% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Bryce Miller 60.5% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Heriberto Hernández — 29.8% HR probability
Shohei Ohtani — 26.2% HR probability
Trent Grisham — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Tyler Mahle — proj 5.6, recorded 7
Jackson Kent — proj 5.6, recorded 6
Dustin May — proj 5.3, recorded 6

Biggest Surprises

Luis Castillo — proj 4.6, recorded 10
George Klassen — proj 1.1, recorded 5

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Heriberto Hernández. Model HR probability 29.8% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

See today's slate the same way

This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

3-day free trial. The full results archive stays free.

Start Free Trial