Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 12, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
411
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
August 12, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Merrill Kelly | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Zebby Matthews | 31.0% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Royce Lewis | — | vs Shane Baz | 30.7% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Carmen Mlodzinski | 29.8% | Home Run |
| #5 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Eric Lauer | 28.7% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Salvador Perez | Kansas City Royals | vs Eric Lauer | 28.0% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Daniel Lynch IV | 26.2% | Home Run |
| #8 | Andrew Benintendi | — | vs Rhett Lowder | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Janson Junk | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Tyler O'Neill | — | vs Zebby Matthews | 24.9% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Joc Pederson | — | vs George Klassen | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Jackson Merrill | — | vs Dustin May | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Ranger Suarez | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Munetaka Murakami | — | vs Rhett Lowder | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Adrian Houser | 24.1% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | St. Louis Cardinals | 6.0 | 5 | -1.0 | On Target |
| Jack Perkins | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.8 | 2 | -3.8 | |
| Bryce Miller | New York Yankees | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Tyler Mahle | New York Mets | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| Jackson Kent | Chicago Cubs | 5.6 | 6 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Foster Griffin | Detroit Tigers | 5.3 | 3 | -2.3 | |
| Dustin May | San Diego Padres | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 | On Target |
| José Soriano | Boston Red Sox | 5.3 | 4 | -1.3 | |
| David Peterson | Washington Nationals | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Ranger Suarez | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.1 | 2 | -3.1 | |
| Will Warren | Seattle Mariners | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 | |
| Kyle Leahy | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.0 | 6 | +1.0 | |
| Shane Baz | Minnesota Twins | 4.9 | 2 | -2.9 | |
| Robbie Ray | Milwaukee Brewers | 4.8 | 4 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | Miami Marlins | 4.8 | 1 | -3.8 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Daniel Lynch IV | 63.5% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Adrian Houser | 61.9% | Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Jackson Kent | 61.7% | Hit |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | vs Eric Lauer | 61.5% | Hit |
| Brett Baty | New York Mets | vs Tyler Mahle | 61.4% | No Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Luis Castillo | 61.2% | No Hit |
| Brandon Nimmo | — | vs George Klassen | 61.1% | No Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Drew Rasmussen | 60.8% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Kyle Leahy | 60.8% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Kyle Leahy | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Andy Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Daniel Lynch IV | 60.8% | Hit |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | vs Zebby Matthews | 60.7% | No Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs David Peterson | 60.6% | No Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Jack Perkins | 60.5% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Bryce Miller | 60.5% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Heriberto Hernández — 29.8% HR probability
- Shohei Ohtani — 26.2% HR probability
- Trent Grisham — 23.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Tyler Mahle — proj 5.6, recorded 7
- Jackson Kent — proj 5.6, recorded 6
- Dustin May — proj 5.3, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Luis Castillo — proj 4.6, recorded 10
- George Klassen — proj 1.1, recorded 5
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Heriberto Hernández. Model HR probability 29.8% — result: Home Run.
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