Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 9, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
428
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
August 9, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Kumar Rocker | 30.8% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Shane Bieber | 29.0% | Home Run |
| #3 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Matthew Boyd | 27.3% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Randy Vásquez | 26.5% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Royce Lewis | Minnesota Twins | vs Jacob Misiorowski | 26.2% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Jesús Luzardo | 26.1% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Michael McGreevy | 25.2% | Home Run |
| #8 | Munetaka Murakami | — | vs Joey Cantillo | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Heriberto Hernández | Miami Marlins | vs Grayson Rodriguez | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Andrew Benintendi | — | vs Joey Cantillo | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Owen Caissie | — | vs Grayson Rodriguez | 24.3% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Matthew Boyd | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Colson Montgomery | — | vs Joey Cantillo | 24.1% | Home Run |
| #15 | Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Grayson Rodriguez | 24.1% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Minnesota Twins | 8.1 | 9 | +0.9 | On Target |
| Cam Schlittler | Atlanta Braves | 6.5 | 11 | +4.5 | |
| Jesús Luzardo | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.6 | 12 | +6.4 | |
| Joey Cantillo | Chicago White Sox | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 | |
| Connor Prielipp | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.2 | 7 | +1.8 | |
| Sean Manaea | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.2 | 11 | +5.8 | |
| Kumar Rocker | Baltimore Orioles | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Jared Jones | New York Mets | 5.2 | 3 | -2.2 | |
| Troy Melton | San Francisco Giants | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Emerson Hancock | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 | |
| Justin Wrobleski | Arizona Diamondbacks | 4.6 | 3 | -1.6 | |
| J.T. Ginn | Boston Red Sox | 4.6 | 2 | -2.6 | |
| Logan Webb | Detroit Tigers | 4.6 | 2 | -2.6 | |
| Matthew Boyd | Kansas City Royals | 4.6 | 3 | -1.6 | |
| Cade Povich | Texas Rangers | 4.5 | 2 | -2.5 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 62.7% | No Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Shane Bieber | 62.6% | No Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Randy Vásquez | 62.4% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Shane Bieber | 62.3% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Unknown Pitcher | 62.2% | No Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Grayson Rodriguez | 62.1% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Cristian Javier | 61.6% | Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Brady Singer | 61.5% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Grant Holmes | 61.2% | No Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Troy Melton | 61.1% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Shane Bieber | 61.0% | Hit |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | vs J.T. Ginn | 60.9% | No Hit |
| Alec Burleson | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 60.8% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Brad Lord | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | vs Randy Dobnak | 60.7% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Kyle Schwarber — 29.0% HR probability
- Hunter Goodman — 25.2% HR probability
- Colson Montgomery — 24.1% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Jacob Misiorowski — proj 8.1, recorded 9
- Cam Schlittler — proj 6.5, recorded 11
- Jesús Luzardo — proj 5.6, recorded 12
Biggest Surprises
- Jesús Luzardo — proj 5.6, recorded 12
- Sean Manaea — proj 5.2, recorded 11
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kyle Schwarber. Model HR probability 29.0% — result: Home Run.
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