MLB Results — August 9, 2026

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MLB Model Results — August 9, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Kumar Rocker 30.8% No Home Run

#2 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Shane Bieber 29.0% Home Run

#3 Jac Caglianone— · vs Matthew Boyd 27.3% No Home Run

#4 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Randy Vásquez 26.5% No Home Run

#5 Royce Lewis— · vs Jacob Misiorowski 26.2% No Home Run

#6 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Jesús Luzardo 26.1% No Home Run

#7 Hunter Goodman— · vs Michael McGreevy 25.2% Home Run

#8 Munetaka Murakami— · vs Joey Cantillo 25.2% No Home Run

#9 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 25.2% No Home Run

#10 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Grayson Rodriguez 25.2% No Home Run

#11 Andrew Benintendi— · vs Joey Cantillo 25.0% No Home Run

#12 Owen Caissie— · vs Grayson Rodriguez 24.3% No Home Run

#13 Salvador Perez— · vs Matthew Boyd 24.2% No Home Run

#14 Colson Montgomery— · vs Joey Cantillo 24.1% Home Run

#15 Kyle Stowers— · vs Grayson Rodriguez 24.1% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Jacob Misiorowskivs Minnesota Twins 8.1 9 +0.9On target

Cam Schlittlervs Atlanta Braves 6.5 11 +4.5

Jesús Luzardovs Toronto Blue Jays 5.6 12 +6.4

Joey Cantillovs Chicago White Sox 5.5 3 -2.5

Connor Prielippvs Milwaukee Brewers 5.2 7 +1.8

Sean Manaeavs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.2 11 +5.8

Kumar Rockervs Baltimore Orioles 5.2 5 -0.2On target

Jared Jonesvs New York Mets 5.2 3 -2.2

Troy Meltonvs San Francisco Giants 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Emerson Hancockvs Tampa Bay Rays 5.1 3 -2.1

Justin Wrobleskivs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.6 3 -1.6

J.T. Ginnvs Boston Red Sox 4.6 2 -2.6

Logan Webbvs Detroit Tigers 4.6 2 -2.6

Matthew Boydvs Kansas City Royals 4.6 3 -1.6

Cade Povichvs Texas Rangers 4.5 2 -2.5

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 62.7% No Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Shane Bieber 62.6% No Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Randy Vásquez 62.4% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Shane Bieber 62.3% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Unknown Pitcher 62.2% No Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Grayson Rodriguez 62.1% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Cristian Javier 61.6% Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Brady Singer 61.5% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Grant Holmes 61.2% No Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Troy Melton 61.1% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Shane Bieber 61.0% Hit

Wilyer Abreu— · vs J.T. Ginn 60.9% No Hit

Alec Burleson— · vs Michael Lorenzen 60.8% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Brad Lord 60.8% No Hit

Pete Crow-Armstrong— · vs Randy Dobnak 60.7% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Kyle Schwarber — 29.0% HR probability
Hunter Goodman — 25.2% HR probability
Colson Montgomery — 24.1% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Jacob Misiorowski — proj 8.1, recorded 9
Cam Schlittler — proj 6.5, recorded 11
Jesús Luzardo — proj 5.6, recorded 12

Biggest Surprises

Jesús Luzardo — proj 5.6, recorded 12
Sean Manaea — proj 5.2, recorded 11

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kyle Schwarber. Model HR probability 29.0% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

See today's slate the same way

This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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