Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 8, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
394
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
August 8, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Aaron Nola | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Coby Mayo | — | vs Jacob deGrom | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Royce Lewis | — | vs Robert Gasser | 28.4% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Matthew Liberatore | 28.0% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Jahmai Jones | — | vs Gage Jump | 26.1% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Tyler O'Neill | — | vs Jacob deGrom | 25.9% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Max Scherzer | 25.3% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Jo Adell | Cleveland Guardians | vs Anthony Kay | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Robert Stock | 25.0% | Home Run |
| #10 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Michael King | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | vs Peter Lambert | 24.2% | Home Run |
| #12 | Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | vs Clay Holmes | 24.1% | Home Run |
| #13 | Pete Alonso | — | vs Jacob deGrom | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Heriberto Hernández | Miami Marlins | vs Walbert Ureña | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Willy Adames | — | vs Jackson Jobe | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | New York Yankees | 7.4 | 8 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Kyle Bradish | Texas Rangers | 6.9 | 4 | -2.9 | |
| Chase Burns | Washington Nationals | 6.7 | 6 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Jacob deGrom | Baltimore Orioles | 6.2 | 9 | +2.8 | |
| Gerrit Cole | Atlanta Braves | 5.8 | 9 | +3.2 | |
| Taj Bradley | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| Peter Lambert | San Diego Padres | 5.6 | 3 | -2.6 | |
| Gavin Williams | Chicago White Sox | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 | |
| Gage Jump | Boston Red Sox | 5.4 | 11 | +5.6 | |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.1 | 6 | +0.9 | On Target |
| Matthew Liberatore | Colorado Rockies | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 | |
| Aaron Nola | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.1 | 8 | +2.9 | |
| Walbert Ureña | Miami Marlins | 5.1 | 2 | -3.1 | |
| Andrew Alvarez | Cincinnati Reds | 5.1 | 2 | -3.1 | |
| Clay Holmes | Kansas City Royals | 4.9 | 1 | -3.9 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 64.5% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Max Scherzer | 62.9% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Michael King | 62.8% | No Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Andrew Alvarez | 62.2% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Max Scherzer | 61.8% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Max Scherzer | 61.7% | No Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Peter Lambert | 61.7% | Hit |
| Brett Baty | — | vs Bubba Chandler | 61.6% | No Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Seth Lugo | 61.5% | No Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 61.3% | No Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Chase Burns | 60.9% | Hit |
| Luis Arraez | — | vs Max Scherzer | 60.9% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Jackson Jobe | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Brandon Nimmo | Texas Rangers | vs Kyle Bradish | 60.8% | Hit |
| Trea Turner | — | vs Max Scherzer | 60.8% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Brandon Lowe — 25.0% HR probability
- Jackson Merrill — 24.2% HR probability
- Jac Caglianone — 24.1% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Chris Sale — proj 7.4, recorded 8
- Jacob deGrom — proj 6.2, recorded 9
- Gerrit Cole — proj 5.8, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Gage Jump — proj 5.4, recorded 11
- Clay Holmes — proj 4.9, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Brandon Lowe. Model HR probability 25.0% — result: Home Run.
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