Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 10, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
10
Games covered
263
Hitters evaluated
20
Pitchers evaluated
August 10, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Royce Lewis | Minnesota Twins | vs Trevor Rogers | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Michael Soroka | 30.6% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Willy Adames | — | vs Hayden Wesneski | 30.1% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Tarik Skubal | 27.3% | Home Run |
| #5 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Noah Cameron | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Dean Kremer | 25.3% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Tarik Skubal | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Zach Neto | Los Angeles Angels | vs MacKenzie Gore | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Blade Tidwell | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Matt Olson | — | vs Christian Scott | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Joc Pederson | — | vs Reid Detmers | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Mickey Moniak | — | vs Michael Soroka | 23.2% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Hunter Dobbins | 19.4% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Alec Burleson | — | vs Andrew Painter | 19.2% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Michael Harris II | — | vs Christian Scott | 19.2% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Henderson | San Diego Padres | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Reid Detmers | Texas Rangers | 6.7 | 6 | -0.7 | On Target |
| MacKenzie Gore | Los Angeles Angels | 6.4 | 9 | +2.6 | |
| Christian Scott | Atlanta Braves | 6.1 | 6 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Tarik Skubal | Kansas City Royals | 5.8 | 6 | +0.2 | On Target |
| Michael Soroka | Colorado Rockies | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| Dean Kremer | Baltimore Orioles | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 | |
| Noah Cameron | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.0 | 2 | -3.0 | |
| Gabriel Hughes | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 | |
| Sonny Gray | Toronto Blue Jays | 4.9 | 4 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Hunter Dobbins | Philadelphia Phillies | 4.8 | 6 | +1.2 | |
| Casey Mize | Milwaukee Brewers | 4.8 | 6 | +1.2 | |
| Trevor Rogers | Minnesota Twins | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Bryce Elder | New York Mets | 4.4 | 4 | -0.4 | On Target |
| Jacob Lopez | Tampa Bay Rays | 4.2 | 5 | +0.8 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Noah Cameron | 64.2% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Blade Tidwell | 62.1% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Hunter Dobbins | 62.0% | No Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Freddy Peralta | 61.9% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Hayden Wesneski | 61.6% | No Hit |
| Brett Baty | New York Mets | vs Bryce Elder | 61.5% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Jacob Lopez | 61.3% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Hunter Dobbins | 61.2% | Hit |
| Junior Caminero | — | vs Jacob Lopez | 60.9% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Hunter Dobbins | 60.8% | Hit |
| Liam Hicks | — | vs Jacob Lopez | 60.7% | No Hit |
| Alec Burleson | — | vs Andrew Painter | 60.6% | Hit |
| Derek Hill | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Hunter Dobbins | 60.3% | No Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Logan Henderson | 60.3% | No Hit |
| Iván Herrera | St. Louis Cardinals | vs Andrew Painter | 60.2% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Jac Caglianone — 27.3% HR probability
- Jackson Merrill — 18.6% HR probability
- Josh Bell — 18.5% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- MacKenzie Gore — proj 6.4, recorded 9
- Tarik Skubal — proj 5.8, recorded 6
- Dean Kremer — proj 5.1, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Noah Cameron — proj 5.0, recorded 2
- MacKenzie Gore — proj 6.4, recorded 9
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Jac Caglianone. Model HR probability 27.3% — result: Home Run.
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