MLB Results — August 10, 2026

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MLB Model Results — August 10, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Royce Lewis— · vs Trevor Rogers 31.1% No Home Run

#2 Hunter Goodman— · vs Michael Soroka 30.6% No Home Run

#3 Willy Adames— · vs Hayden Wesneski 30.1% No Home Run

#4 Jac Caglianone— · vs Tarik Skubal 27.3% Home Run

#5 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Noah Cameron 25.4% No Home Run

#6 Coby Mayo— · vs Dean Kremer 25.3% No Home Run

#7 Salvador Perez— · vs Tarik Skubal 25.2% No Home Run

#8 Zach Neto— · vs MacKenzie Gore 25.0% No Home Run

#9 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Blade Tidwell 24.1% No Home Run

#10 Matt Olson— · vs Christian Scott 24.1% No Home Run

#11 Joc Pederson— · vs Reid Detmers 23.9% No Home Run

#12 Mickey Moniak— · vs Michael Soroka 23.2% No Home Run

#13 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Hunter Dobbins 19.4% No Home Run

#14 Alec Burleson— · vs Andrew Painter 19.2% No Home Run

#15 Michael Harris II— · vs Christian Scott 19.2% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Logan Hendersonvs San Diego Padres 7.5 7 -0.5On target

Reid Detmersvs Texas Rangers 6.7 6 -0.7On target

MacKenzie Gorevs Los Angeles Angels 6.4 9 +2.6

Christian Scottvs Atlanta Braves 6.1 6 -0.1On target

Tarik Skubalvs Kansas City Royals 5.8 6 +0.2On target

Michael Sorokavs Colorado Rockies 5.4 4 -1.4

Dean Kremervs Baltimore Orioles 5.1 7 +1.9

Noah Cameronvs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.0 2 -3.0

Gabriel Hughesvs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.0 3 -2.0

Sonny Grayvs Toronto Blue Jays 4.9 4 -0.9On target

Hunter Dobbinsvs Philadelphia Phillies 4.8 6 +1.2

Casey Mizevs Milwaukee Brewers 4.8 6 +1.2

Trevor Rogersvs Minnesota Twins 4.5 4 -0.5On target

Bryce Eldervs New York Mets 4.4 4 -0.4On target

Jacob Lopezvs Tampa Bay Rays 4.2 5 +0.8On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Noah Cameron 64.2% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Blade Tidwell 62.1% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Hunter Dobbins 62.0% No Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Freddy Peralta 61.9% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Hayden Wesneski 61.6% No Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Bryce Elder 61.5% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Jacob Lopez 61.3% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Hunter Dobbins 61.2% Hit

Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Jacob Lopez 60.9% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Hunter Dobbins 60.8% Hit

Liam HicksTampa Bay Rays · vs Jacob Lopez 60.7% No Hit

Alec Burleson— · vs Andrew Painter 60.6% Hit

Derek Hill— · vs Hunter Dobbins 60.3% No Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Logan Henderson 60.3% No Hit

Iván Herrera— · vs Andrew Painter 60.2% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Jac Caglianone — 27.3% HR probability
Jackson Merrill — 18.6% HR probability
Josh Bell — 18.5% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

MacKenzie Gore — proj 6.4, recorded 9
Tarik Skubal — proj 5.8, recorded 6
Dean Kremer — proj 5.1, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Noah Cameron — proj 5.0, recorded 2
MacKenzie Gore — proj 6.4, recorded 9

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Jac Caglianone. Model HR probability 27.3% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

See today's slate the same way

This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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