Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 10, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
406
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
July 10, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | Boston Red Sox | 6.5 | 7 | +0.5 | On Target |
| Chris Sale | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Sean Burke | Athletics | 5.7 | 9 | +3.3 | |
| Ryan Weathers | Washington Nationals | 5.6 | 6 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Hunter Brown | Texas Rangers | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 | |
| Shota Imanaga | Cincinnati Reds | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Hunter Greene | Chicago Cubs | 5.4 | 12 | +6.6 | |
| Sonny Gray | New York Mets | 5.3 | 3 | -2.3 | |
| Parker Messick | Miami Marlins | 5.1 | 1 | -4.1 | |
| Jack Flaherty | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.0 | 6 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Zebby Matthews | Los Angeles Angels | 4.9 | 3 | -1.9 | |
| Aaron Nola | Detroit Tigers | 4.9 | 8 | +3.1 | |
| Luis Castillo | Tampa Bay Rays | 4.6 | 4 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Sandy Alcantara | Cleveland Guardians | 4.3 | 8 | +3.7 | |
| Robbie Ray | Colorado Rockies | 4.2 | 4 | -0.2 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Nolan McLean — proj 6.5, recorded 7
- Sean Burke — proj 5.7, recorded 9
- Ryan Weathers — proj 5.6, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Hunter Greene — proj 5.4, recorded 12
- Grayson Rodriguez — proj 4.2, recorded 0
Highest Performing Projection — Strikeout Projection: Nolan McLean. Projected 6.5 strikeouts — recorded 7.
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