MLB Results — July 10, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 10, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Robbie Ray 31.1% No Home Run

#2 Brandon Lowe— · vs Brandon Sproat 30.6% No Home Run

#3 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Cal Quantrill 27.2% Home Run

#4 Jackson Merrill— · vs Shane Bieber 26.9% No Home Run

#5 Zach Neto— · vs Zebby Matthews 26.1% No Home Run

#6 Spencer Steer— · vs Shota Imanaga 25.4% No Home Run

#7 Heliot Ramos— · vs Tanner Gordon 25.3% No Home Run

#8 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Parker Messick 25.3% Home Run

#9 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Jack Flaherty 24.4% No Home Run

#10 Riley Greene— · vs Aaron Nola 24.4% No Home Run

#11 Elly De La Cruz— · vs Shota Imanaga 24.4% Home Run

#12 Jac Caglianone— · vs Brandon Young 24.1% Home Run

#13 Ketel Marte— · vs Kyle Hurt 23.9% No Home Run

#14 Cal Raleigh— · vs Nick Martinez 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Ketel Marte— · vs Shohei Ohtani 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Nolan McLeanvs Boston Red Sox 6.5 7 +0.5On target

Chris Salevs St. Louis Cardinals 5.7 5 -0.7On target

Sean Burkevs Athletics 5.7 9 +3.3

Ryan Weathersvs Washington Nationals 5.6 6 +0.4On target

Hunter Brownvs Texas Rangers 5.5 4 -1.5

Shota Imanagavs Cincinnati Reds 5.5 5 -0.5On target

Hunter Greenevs Chicago Cubs 5.4 12 +6.6

Brandon Sproatvs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.4 3 -2.4

Braxton Ashcraftvs Milwaukee Brewers 5.3 6 +0.7On target

Sonny Grayvs New York Mets 5.3 3 -2.3

Parker Messickvs Miami Marlins 5.1 1 -4.1

Jack Flahertyvs Philadelphia Phillies 5.0 6 +1.0On target

Aaron Nolavs Detroit Tigers 4.9 8 +3.1

Zebby Matthewsvs Los Angeles Angels 4.9 3 -1.9

Luis Castillovs Tampa Bay Rays 4.6 4 -0.6On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 64.5% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Cal Quantrill 62.8% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Sonny Gray 62.8% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Shota Imanaga 62.1% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Shane Bieber 62.1% Hit

Yandy Díaz— · vs Luis Castillo 62.0% No Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Tanner Gordon 61.9% Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Sonny Gray 61.6% Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 61.4% No Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Sean Burke 61.2% Hit

Otto Lopez— · vs Parker Messick 61.2% No Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Jack Flaherty 61.1% No Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Brandon Sproat 60.7% No Hit

Andy Pages— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 60.7% Hit

Miguel VargasChicago White Sox · vs Jacob Lopez 60.6% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Yordan Alvarez — 27.2% HR probability
Heriberto Hernández — 25.3% HR probability
Elly De La Cruz — 24.4% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Nolan McLean — proj 6.5, recorded 7
Sean Burke — proj 5.7, recorded 9
Ryan Weathers — proj 5.6, recorded 6

Biggest Surprises

Hunter Greene — proj 5.4, recorded 12
Grayson Rodriguez — proj 4.2, recorded 0

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Yordan Alvarez. Model HR probability 27.2% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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