Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 9, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
14
Games covered
376
Hitters evaluated
28
Pitchers evaluated
July 9, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | — | vs Carson Whisenhunt | 31.0% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Coby Mayo | — | vs David Peterson | 30.8% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Brady Singer | 29.2% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Jackson Merrill | — | vs Merrill Kelly | 28.6% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Zach Neto | Los Angeles Angels | vs Nathan Eovaldi | 27.1% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Hunter Goodman | — | vs Unknown Pitcher | 26.6% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Sean Manaea | 25.3% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Merrill Kelly | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Jesús Luzardo | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Bryce Elder | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Royce Lewis | Minnesota Twins | vs Gavin Williams | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #12 | Willy Adames | San Francisco Giants | vs Ryan Feltner | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #13 | Justin Foscue | — | vs Reid Detmers | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #14 | Heriberto Hernández | Miami Marlins | vs Bryce Miller | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Colson Montgomery | — | vs Patrick Sandoval | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesús Luzardo | Cincinnati Reds | 6.7 | 11 | +4.3 | |
| Reid Detmers | Texas Rangers | 6.2 | 6 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Los Angeles Angels | 6.0 | 10 | +4.0 | |
| Gavin Williams | Minnesota Twins | 5.9 | 11 | +5.1 | |
| Patrick Sandoval | Chicago White Sox | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Logan Henderson | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.7 | 4 | -1.7 | |
| Bryce Miller | Miami Marlins | 5.4 | 3 | -2.4 | |
| Drew Rasmussen | New York Yankees | 5.3 | 2 | -3.3 | |
| Sean Manaea | Kansas City Royals | 5.0 | 6 | +1.0 | |
| Griffin Canning | Arizona Diamondbacks | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 | On Target |
| Merrill Kelly | San Diego Padres | 4.2 | 6 | +1.8 | |
| Andre Pallante | Milwaukee Brewers | 4.2 | 2 | -2.2 | |
| Brady Singer | Philadelphia Phillies | 4.2 | 5 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Ryan Feltner | San Francisco Giants | 4.2 | 3 | -1.2 | |
| Janson Junk | Seattle Mariners | 4.2 | 5 | +0.8 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | — | vs Michael Wacha | 64.2% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Paul Blackburn | 62.1% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Merrill Kelly | 61.9% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Brady Singer | 61.8% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Brady Singer | 61.4% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Brady Singer | 61.4% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Jesús Luzardo | 61.3% | No Hit |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Ryan Feltner | 61.2% | Hit |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Bryce Elder | 60.8% | Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Trevor Rogers | 60.8% | Hit |
| Derek Hill | — | vs Brady Singer | 60.7% | No Hit |
| Ben Rice | — | vs Drew Rasmussen | 60.6% | Hit |
| Ketel Marte | — | vs Griffin Canning | 60.3% | No Hit |
| Heliot Ramos | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 60.3% | Hit |
| Michael Harris II | — | vs Mitch Keller | 60.3% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Justin Foscue — 23.9% HR probability
- Royce Lewis — 23.9% HR probability
- Willy Adames — 23.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Jesús Luzardo — proj 6.7, recorded 11
- Nathan Eovaldi — proj 6.0, recorded 10
- Gavin Williams — proj 5.9, recorded 11
Biggest Surprises
- Gavin Williams — proj 5.9, recorded 11
- Framber Valdez — proj 4.2, recorded 9
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Justin Foscue. Model HR probability 23.9% — result: Home Run.
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