MLB Results — July 9, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 9, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Carson Whisenhunt 31.0% No Home Run

#2 Coby Mayo— · vs David Peterson 30.8% No Home Run

#3 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Brady Singer 29.2% No Home Run

#4 Jackson Merrill— · vs Merrill Kelly 28.6% No Home Run

#5 Zach Neto— · vs Nathan Eovaldi 27.1% No Home Run

#6 Hunter Goodman— · vs Unknown Pitcher 26.6% No Home Run

#7 Salvador Perez— · vs Sean Manaea 25.3% No Home Run

#8 Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Merrill Kelly 24.4% No Home Run

#9 Elly De La Cruz— · vs Jesús Luzardo 24.2% No Home Run

#10 Brandon Lowe— · vs Bryce Elder 24.1% No Home Run

#11 Royce Lewis— · vs Gavin Williams 23.9% Home Run

#12 Willy Adames— · vs Ryan Feltner 23.9% Home Run

#13 Justin Foscue— · vs Reid Detmers 23.9% Home Run

#14 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Bryce Miller 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Colson MontgomeryChicago White Sox · vs Patrick Sandoval 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Jesús Luzardovs Cincinnati Reds 6.7 11 +4.3

Reid Detmersvs Texas Rangers 6.2 6 -0.2On target

Nathan Eovaldivs Los Angeles Angels 6.0 10 +4.0

Gavin Williamsvs Minnesota Twins 5.9 11 +5.1

Patrick Sandovalvs Chicago White Sox 5.7 5 -0.7On target

Logan Hendersonvs St. Louis Cardinals 5.7 4 -1.7

Bryce Millervs Miami Marlins 5.4 3 -2.4

Drew Rasmussenvs New York Yankees 5.3 2 -3.3

Sean Manaeavs Kansas City Royals 5.0 6 +1.0

Griffin Canningvs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.5 5 +0.5On target

Merrill Kellyvs San Diego Padres 4.2 6 +1.8

Andre Pallantevs Milwaukee Brewers 4.2 2 -2.2

Brady Singervs Philadelphia Phillies 4.2 5 +0.8On target

Ryan Feltnervs San Francisco Giants 4.2 3 -1.2

Janson Junkvs Seattle Mariners 4.2 5 +0.8On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Juan Soto— · vs Michael Wacha 64.2% Hit

Yandy Díaz— · vs Paul Blackburn 62.1% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Merrill Kelly 61.9% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Brady Singer 61.8% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Brady Singer 61.4% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Brady Singer 61.4% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Jesús Luzardo 61.3% No Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Ryan Feltner 61.2% Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Bryce Elder 60.8% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Trevor Rogers 60.8% Hit

Derek Hill— · vs Brady Singer 60.7% No Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Drew Rasmussen 60.6% Hit

Ketel Marte— · vs Griffin Canning 60.3% No Hit

Heliot Ramos— · vs Ryan Feltner 60.3% Hit

Michael Harris II— · vs Mitch Keller 60.3% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Justin Foscue — 23.9% HR probability
Royce Lewis — 23.9% HR probability
Willy Adames — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Jesús Luzardo — proj 6.7, recorded 11
Nathan Eovaldi — proj 6.0, recorded 10
Gavin Williams — proj 5.9, recorded 11

Biggest Surprises

Gavin Williams — proj 5.9, recorded 11
Framber Valdez — proj 4.2, recorded 9

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Justin Foscue. Model HR probability 23.9% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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