Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 6, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
8
Games covered
209
Hitters evaluated
16
Pitchers evaluated
July 6, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Eric Lauer | 31.6% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Noah Cameron | 27.4% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Miles Mikolas | 26.6% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Cristopher Sánchez | 26.2% | Home Run |
| #5 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Kyle Freeland | 24.1% | Home Run |
| #6 | Willy Adames | — | vs Kevin Gausman | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Casey Schmitt | — | vs Kevin Gausman | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Cristopher Sánchez | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #9 | James Wood | Washington Nationals | vs Mike Burrows | 23.2% | Home Run |
| #10 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Landen Roupp | 23.2% | Home Run |
| #11 | Bryce Eldridge | — | vs Kevin Gausman | 19.0% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Matt Olson | — | vs Freddy Peralta | 18.9% | Home Run |
| #13 | Jackson Merrill | — | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 18.6% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Andy Pages | — | vs Kyle Freeland | 18.6% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 18.6% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sánchez | Kansas City Royals | 6.3 | 1 | -5.3 | |
| Griffin Jax | New York Yankees | 5.7 | 10 | +4.3 | |
| Cam Schlittler | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.4 | 8 | +2.6 | |
| Shane Drohan | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.1 | 2 | -3.1 | |
| Kevin Gausman | San Francisco Giants | 5.1 | 8 | +2.9 | |
| Landen Roupp | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.0 | 5 | -0.0 | On Target |
| Walker Buehler | Arizona Diamondbacks | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Dustin May | Milwaukee Brewers | 3.9 | 7 | +3.1 | |
| Mike Burrows | Washington Nationals | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Miles Mikolas | Houston Astros | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Eric Lauer | Colorado Rockies | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Brandon Pfaadt | San Diego Padres | 3.9 | 6 | +2.1 | |
| Kyle Freeland | Los Angeles Dodgers | 3.9 | 2 | -1.9 | |
| Freddy Peralta | Atlanta Braves | 3.9 | 6 | +2.1 | |
| Noah Cameron | Philadelphia Phillies | 3.9 | 7 | +3.1 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Miles Mikolas | 62.3% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Noah Cameron | 61.7% | No Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Noah Cameron | 60.1% | No Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Reynaldo López | 59.5% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Noah Cameron | 58.9% | No Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Kyle Freeland | 58.7% | Hit |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | vs Cristopher Sánchez | 58.1% | Hit |
| Brett Baty | New York Mets | vs Reynaldo López | 58.0% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 58.0% | No Hit |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Noah Cameron | 57.6% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Cam Schlittler | 57.1% | No Hit |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | vs Mike Burrows | 56.8% | Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Mike Burrows | 56.7% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Kevin Gausman | 56.6% | No Hit |
| TJ Rumfield | — | vs Eric Lauer | 56.6% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Salvador Perez — 26.2% HR probability
- Shohei Ohtani — 24.1% HR probability
- Kazuma Okamoto — 23.2% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Griffin Jax — proj 5.7, recorded 10
- Cam Schlittler — proj 5.4, recorded 8
- Kevin Gausman — proj 5.1, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Cristopher Sánchez — proj 6.3, recorded 1
- Griffin Jax — proj 5.7, recorded 10
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Salvador Perez. Model HR probability 26.2% — result: Home Run.
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