Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 6, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
8
Games covered
209
Hitters evaluated
16
Pitchers evaluated
July 6, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | — | vs Eric Lauer | 31.6% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Noah Cameron | 27.4% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Miles Mikolas | 26.6% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Cristopher Sánchez | 26.2% | Home Run |
| #5 | Mickey Moniak | — | vs Eric Lauer | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Kyle Freeland | 24.1% | Home Run |
| #7 | Willy Adames | — | vs Kevin Gausman | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Casey Schmitt | — | vs Kevin Gausman | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Cristopher Sánchez | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Landen Roupp | 23.2% | Home Run |
| #11 | James Wood | — | vs Mike Burrows | 23.2% | Home Run |
| #12 | Bryce Eldridge | — | vs Kevin Gausman | 19.0% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | vs Freddy Peralta | 18.9% | Home Run |
| #14 | Andy Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Kyle Freeland | 18.6% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Austin Riley | Atlanta Braves | vs Freddy Peralta | 18.6% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sánchez | Kansas City Royals | 6.3 | 1 | -5.3 | |
| Griffin Jax | New York Yankees | 5.7 | 10 | +4.3 | |
| Cam Schlittler | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.4 | 8 | +2.6 | |
| Shane Drohan | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.1 | 2 | -3.1 | |
| Kevin Gausman | San Francisco Giants | 5.1 | 8 | +2.9 | |
| Landen Roupp | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.0 | 5 | -0.0 | On Target |
| Walker Buehler | Arizona Diamondbacks | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Dustin May | Milwaukee Brewers | 3.9 | 7 | +3.1 | |
| Mike Burrows | Washington Nationals | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Miles Mikolas | Houston Astros | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Eric Lauer | Colorado Rockies | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Brandon Pfaadt | San Diego Padres | 3.9 | 6 | +2.1 | |
| Kyle Freeland | Los Angeles Dodgers | 3.9 | 2 | -1.9 | |
| Freddy Peralta | Atlanta Braves | 3.9 | 6 | +2.1 | |
| Noah Cameron | Philadelphia Phillies | 3.9 | 7 | +3.1 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Miles Mikolas | 62.3% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Noah Cameron | 61.7% | No Hit |
| Bryce Harper | — | vs Noah Cameron | 60.1% | No Hit |
| Juan Soto | — | vs Reynaldo López | 59.5% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | — | vs Noah Cameron | 58.9% | No Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Kyle Freeland | 58.7% | Hit |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | — | vs Cristopher Sánchez | 58.1% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 58.0% | No Hit |
| Brett Baty | — | vs Reynaldo López | 58.0% | Hit |
| Trea Turner | — | vs Noah Cameron | 57.6% | Hit |
| Edouard Julien | — | vs Eric Lauer | 57.5% | No Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | — | vs Cam Schlittler | 57.1% | No Hit |
| James Wood | — | vs Mike Burrows | 56.8% | Hit |
| CJ Abrams | — | vs Mike Burrows | 56.7% | Hit |
| Hunter Goodman | — | vs Eric Lauer | 56.6% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Salvador Perez — 26.2% HR probability
- Shohei Ohtani — 24.1% HR probability
- Kazuma Okamoto — 23.2% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Griffin Jax — proj 5.7, recorded 10
- Cam Schlittler — proj 5.4, recorded 8
- Kevin Gausman — proj 5.1, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Cristopher Sánchez — proj 6.3, recorded 1
- Griffin Jax — proj 5.7, recorded 10
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Salvador Perez. Model HR probability 26.2% — result: Home Run.
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