Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 5, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
405
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
July 5, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | — | vs Nick Lodolo | 31.0% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Cade Cavalli | 30.6% | Home Run |
| #3 | Casey Schmitt | — | vs Tanner Gordon | 30.4% | Home Run |
| #4 | Byron Buxton | — | vs Ryan Weathers | 30.3% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Willy Adames | — | vs Tanner Gordon | 30.1% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs Trey Yesavage | 30.0% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Hunter Goodman | — | vs Tyler Mahle | 28.7% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Luinder Avila | 28.1% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Andrew Benintendi | — | vs Tanner Bibee | 27.1% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Mason Englert | 27.0% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | vs Emmet Sheehan | 26.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Royce Lewis | — | vs Ryan Weathers | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Luke Raley | — | vs Trey Yesavage | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Emerson Hancock | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Aaron Nola | 24.4% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | Cincinnati Reds | 7.2 | 5 | -2.2 | |
| Nolan McLean | Atlanta Braves | 6.8 | 5 | -1.8 | |
| Ranger Suarez | Los Angeles Angels | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Emmet Sheehan | San Diego Padres | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Eury Pérez | Athletics | 5.4 | 8 | +2.6 | |
| Joe Ryan | New York Yankees | 5.3 | 9 | +3.7 | |
| Cade Cavalli | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.3 | 3 | -2.3 | |
| Gage Jump | Miami Marlins | 5.1 | 1 | -4.1 | |
| Brandon Sproat | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Ryan Weathers | Minnesota Twins | 5.0 | 6 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Emerson Hancock | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.0 | 5 | -0.0 | On Target |
| Aaron Nola | Kansas City Royals | 5.0 | 7 | +2.0 | |
| Trey Yesavage | Seattle Mariners | 4.6 | 7 | +2.4 | |
| Tanner Bibee | Chicago White Sox | 4.2 | 1 | -3.2 | |
| Peter Lambert | Tampa Bay Rays | 4.0 | 6 | +2.0 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Mason Englert | 64.5% | No Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs JP Sears | 63.5% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | — | vs Luinder Avila | 63.3% | No Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Tanner Gordon | 63.0% | Hit |
| Edouard Julien | — | vs Tyler Mahle | 62.6% | Hit |
| Andrew Vaughn | — | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 62.3% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | — | vs Peter Lambert | 62.2% | No Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | — | vs Luinder Avila | 62.2% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | — | vs Martín Pérez | 62.2% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Luinder Avila | 62.1% | No Hit |
| Otto Lopez | — | vs Gage Jump | 61.9% | Hit |
| James Wood | — | vs Bubba Chandler | 61.5% | No Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | — | vs Kyle Bradish | 61.2% | No Hit |
| Luis Arraez | — | vs Tanner Gordon | 60.9% | No Hit |
| Mickey Moniak | — | vs Tyler Mahle | 60.9% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Brandon Lowe — 30.6% HR probability
- Casey Schmitt — 30.4% HR probability
- Colson Montgomery — 24.2% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Eury Pérez — proj 5.4, recorded 8
- Joe Ryan — proj 5.3, recorded 9
- Ryan Weathers — proj 5.0, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Mason Englert — proj 2.7, recorded 9
- Gage Jump — proj 5.1, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Brandon Lowe. Model HR probability 30.6% — result: Home Run.
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