MLB Results — July 5, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 5, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

405

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

July 5, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Coby Mayo	Baltimore Orioles	vs Nick Lodolo	31.0%	No Home Run
#2	Brandon Lowe	—	vs Cade Cavalli	30.6%	Home Run
#3	Casey Schmitt	—	vs Tanner Gordon	30.4%	Home Run
#4	Byron Buxton	—	vs Ryan Weathers	30.3%	No Home Run
#5	Willy Adames	—	vs Tanner Gordon	30.1%	No Home Run
#6	Cal Raleigh	—	vs Trey Yesavage	30.0%	No Home Run
#7	Hunter Goodman	—	vs Tyler Mahle	28.7%	No Home Run
#8	Kyle Schwarber	—	vs Luinder Avila	28.1%	No Home Run
#9	Andrew Benintendi	Chicago White Sox	vs Tanner Bibee	27.1%	No Home Run
#10	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Mason Englert	27.0%	No Home Run
#11	Jackson Merrill	—	vs Emmet Sheehan	26.2%	No Home Run
#12	Royce Lewis	—	vs Ryan Weathers	25.2%	No Home Run
#13	Luke Raley	—	vs Trey Yesavage	25.2%	No Home Run
#14	Kazuma Okamoto	Toronto Blue Jays	vs Emerson Hancock	24.4%	No Home Run
#15	Jac Caglianone	—	vs Aaron Nola	24.4%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Kyle Bradish	Cincinnati Reds	7.2	5	-2.2
Nolan McLean	Atlanta Braves	6.8	5	-1.8
Ranger Suarez	Los Angeles Angels	5.8	5	-0.8	On Target
Emmet Sheehan	San Diego Padres	5.7	5	-0.7	On Target
Eury Pérez	Athletics	5.4	8	+2.6
Joe Ryan	New York Yankees	5.3	9	+3.7
Cade Cavalli	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.3	3	-2.3
Gage Jump	Miami Marlins	5.1	1	-4.1
Brandon Sproat	Arizona Diamondbacks	5.1	4	-1.1
Ryan Weathers	Minnesota Twins	5.0	6	+1.0	On Target
Emerson Hancock	Toronto Blue Jays	5.0	5	-0.0	On Target
Aaron Nola	Kansas City Royals	5.0	7	+2.0
Trey Yesavage	Seattle Mariners	4.6	7	+2.4
Tanner Bibee	Chicago White Sox	4.2	1	-3.2
Peter Lambert	Tampa Bay Rays	4.0	6	+2.0

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Mason Englert	64.5%	No Hit
Shohei Ohtani	—	vs JP Sears	63.5%	Hit
Bryce Harper	—	vs Luinder Avila	63.3%	No Hit
Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	vs Tanner Gordon	63.0%	Hit
Edouard Julien	—	vs Tyler Mahle	62.6%	Hit
Andrew Vaughn	Milwaukee Brewers	vs Eduardo Rodriguez	62.3%	Hit
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay Rays	vs Peter Lambert	62.2%	No Hit
Brandon Marsh	—	vs Luinder Avila	62.2%	Hit
Juan Soto	—	vs Martín Pérez	62.2%	Hit
Kyle Schwarber	—	vs Luinder Avila	62.1%	No Hit
Otto Lopez	—	vs Gage Jump	61.9%	Hit
James Wood	—	vs Bubba Chandler	61.5%	No Hit
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	vs Kyle Bradish	61.2%	No Hit
Luis Arraez	—	vs Tanner Gordon	60.9%	No Hit
Mickey Moniak	—	vs Tyler Mahle	60.9%	No Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Brandon Lowe. Model HR probability 30.6% — result: Home Run.

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