MLB Results — July 7, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 7, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Andrew Abbott 31.0% Home Run

#2 Colson Montgomery— · vs Payton Tolle 30.7% No Home Run

#3 Brandon Lowe— · vs Hurston Waldrep 30.6% No Home Run

#4 Zach Neto— · vs Jacob deGrom 27.0% No Home Run

#5 Royce Lewis— · vs Joey Cantillo 27.0% No Home Run

#6 Coby Mayo— · vs Matthew Boyd 26.1% No Home Run

#7 Jackson MerrillSan Diego Padres · vs Zac Gallen 24.4% No Home Run

#8 Miguel Vargas— · vs Payton Tolle 24.1% No Home Run

#9 Owen Caissie— · vs Bryan Woo 24.1% Home Run

#10 Luke Raley— · vs Max Meyer 23.9% No Home Run

#11 Luis García Jr.— · vs Tatsuya Imai 23.9% No Home Run

#12 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Trevor McDonald 23.9% No Home Run

#13 Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgers · vs Michael Lorenzen 23.9% Home Run

#14 Randal Grichuk— · vs Payton Tolle 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Cal Raleigh— · vs Max Meyer 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Tarik Skubalvs Athletics 7.3 9 +1.7

Zack Wheelervs Cincinnati Reds 7.1 14 +6.9

Jacob deGromvs Los Angeles Angels 6.8 7 +0.2On target

Paul Skenesvs Atlanta Braves 6.5 4 -2.5

Jacob Misiorowskivs St. Louis Cardinals 5.7 11 +5.3

Taj Bradleyvs Cleveland Guardians 5.7 10 +4.3

Tatsuya Imaivs Washington Nationals 5.6 3 -2.6

Max Meyervs Seattle Mariners 5.6 4 -1.6

Andrew Alvarezvs Houston Astros 5.3 3 -2.3

José Sorianovs Texas Rangers 5.3 4 -1.3

Matthew Boydvs Baltimore Orioles 5.2 7 +1.8

Joey Cantillovs Minnesota Twins 5.1 7 +1.9

Bryan Woovs Miami Marlins 5.0 5 -0.0On target

Payton Tollevs Chicago White Sox 5.0 6 +1.0On target

Will Warrenvs Tampa Bay Rays 5.0 3 -2.0

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgers · vs Michael Lorenzen 62.9% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Andrew Abbott 62.1% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Andrew Abbott 62.1% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Seth Lugo 62.0% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padres · vs Zac Gallen 61.8% Hit

Freddie FreemanLos Angeles Dodgers · vs Michael Lorenzen 61.6% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Spencer Miles 61.4% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Andrew Alvarez 61.4% No Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Andrew Abbott 61.1% No Hit

Ketel Marte— · vs Germán Márquez 61.1% Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Hurston Waldrep 61.1% No Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Bryan Woo 61.0% No Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Seth Lugo 60.9% Hit

Andy PagesLos Angeles Dodgers · vs Michael Lorenzen 60.8% Hit

James Wood— · vs Tatsuya Imai 60.6% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Kyle Schwarber — 31.0% HR probability
Owen Caissie — 24.1% HR probability
Shohei Ohtani — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Tarik Skubal — proj 7.3, recorded 9
Zack Wheeler — proj 7.1, recorded 14
Jacob deGrom — proj 6.8, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Ian Seymour — proj 3.4, recorded 12
Zack Wheeler — proj 7.1, recorded 14

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kyle Schwarber. Model HR probability 31.0% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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