Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 2, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
9
Games covered
236
Hitters evaluated
18
Pitchers evaluated
July 2, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Jared Jones | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Alan Rangel | 30.4% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Ian Seymour | 29.7% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Owen Caissie | Miami Marlins | vs Michael Lorenzen | 26.6% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Mickey Moniak | Colorado Rockies | vs Ryan Gusto | 25.2% | Home Run |
| #6 | Zach Neto | Los Angeles Angels | vs Bryce Miller | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Randy Vásquez | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Carter Jensen | — | vs Ian Seymour | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #9 | Andrew Benintendi | — | vs Slade Cecconi | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Michael Lorenzen | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Dillon Dingler | — | vs Nathan Eovaldi | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Jackson Merrill | — | vs Roki Sasaki | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #13 | Luke Raley | Seattle Mariners | vs Walbert Ureña | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Matt Olson | — | vs Dustin May | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Austin Riley | Atlanta Braves | vs Dustin May | 23.8% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Cincinnati Reds | 8.1 | 10 | +1.9 | |
| Chase Burns | Milwaukee Brewers | 7.3 | 4 | -3.3 | |
| Dustin May | Atlanta Braves | 5.3 | 1 | -4.3 | |
| Davis Martin | Cleveland Guardians | 5.1 | 0 | -5.1 | |
| Bryce Miller | Los Angeles Angels | 5.1 | 8 | +2.9 | |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Detroit Tigers | 5.1 | 9 | +3.9 | |
| Walbert Ureña | Seattle Mariners | 5.0 | 6 | +1.0 | |
| Roki Sasaki | San Diego Padres | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 | |
| Framber Valdez | Texas Rangers | 3.9 | 1 | -2.9 | |
| Randy Vásquez | Los Angeles Dodgers | 3.9 | 0 | -3.9 | |
| Stephen Kolek | Tampa Bay Rays | 3.9 | 0 | -3.9 | |
| Slade Cecconi | Chicago White Sox | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Jared Jones | Philadelphia Phillies | 3.9 | 6 | +2.1 | |
| Michael Lorenzen | Miami Marlins | 3.7 | 1 | -2.7 | |
| Ryan Gusto | Colorado Rockies | 3.7 | 2 | -1.7 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Randy Vásquez | 62.4% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Michael Lorenzen | 62.3% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Stephen Kolek | 62.2% | No Hit |
| Bryce Harper | — | vs Jared Jones | 62.0% | Hit |
| Otto Lopez | Miami Marlins | vs Michael Lorenzen | 61.9% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | — | vs Jared Jones | 61.9% | No Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Roki Sasaki | 61.4% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Jared Jones | 61.3% | No Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Randy Vásquez | 61.1% | Hit |
| Junior Caminero | — | vs Stephen Kolek | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Edouard Julien | Colorado Rockies | vs Ryan Gusto | 60.6% | Hit |
| Xavier Edwards | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 60.3% | No Hit |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | — | vs Ian Seymour | 60.2% | No Hit |
| Liam Hicks | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 60.2% | Hit |
| Andy Pages | — | vs Randy Vásquez | 60.1% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Mickey Moniak — 25.2% HR probability
- Carter Jensen — 23.9% HR probability
- Jackson Merrill — 23.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Jacob Misiorowski — proj 8.1, recorded 10
- Bryce Miller — proj 5.1, recorded 8
- Nathan Eovaldi — proj 5.1, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Davis Martin — proj 5.1, recorded 0
- Ian Seymour — proj 3.1, recorded 8
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Mickey Moniak. Model HR probability 25.2% — result: Home Run.
Explore More