Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 2, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
9
Games covered
236
Hitters evaluated
18
Pitchers evaluated
July 2, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Jared Jones | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Alan Rangel | 30.4% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Ian Seymour | 29.7% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Owen Caissie | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 26.6% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Mickey Moniak | — | vs Ryan Gusto | 25.2% | Home Run |
| #6 | Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Randy Vásquez | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Zach Neto | — | vs Bryce Miller | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Kyle Stowers | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Carter Jensen | — | vs Ian Seymour | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #10 | Andrew Benintendi | Chicago White Sox | vs Slade Cecconi | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Dillon Dingler | — | vs Nathan Eovaldi | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | vs Roki Sasaki | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #13 | Luke Raley | — | vs Walbert Ureña | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Austin Riley | Atlanta Braves | vs Dustin May | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | vs Dustin May | 23.8% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Cincinnati Reds | 8.1 | 10 | +1.9 | |
| Chase Burns | Milwaukee Brewers | 7.3 | 4 | -3.3 | |
| Dustin May | Atlanta Braves | 5.3 | 1 | -4.3 | |
| Davis Martin | Cleveland Guardians | 5.1 | 0 | -5.1 | |
| Bryce Miller | Los Angeles Angels | 5.1 | 8 | +2.9 | |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Detroit Tigers | 5.1 | 9 | +3.9 | |
| Walbert Ureña | Seattle Mariners | 5.0 | 6 | +1.0 | |
| Roki Sasaki | San Diego Padres | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 | |
| Framber Valdez | Texas Rangers | 3.9 | 1 | -2.9 | |
| Randy Vásquez | Los Angeles Dodgers | 3.9 | 0 | -3.9 | |
| Stephen Kolek | Tampa Bay Rays | 3.9 | 0 | -3.9 | |
| Slade Cecconi | Chicago White Sox | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Jared Jones | Philadelphia Phillies | 3.9 | 6 | +2.1 | |
| Michael Lorenzen | Miami Marlins | 3.7 | 1 | -2.7 | |
| Ryan Gusto | Colorado Rockies | 3.7 | 2 | -1.7 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Randy Vásquez | 62.4% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 62.3% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | — | vs Stephen Kolek | 62.2% | No Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Jared Jones | 62.0% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Jared Jones | 61.9% | No Hit |
| Otto Lopez | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 61.9% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Roki Sasaki | 61.4% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Jared Jones | 61.3% | No Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | — | vs Randy Vásquez | 61.1% | Hit |
| Junior Caminero | — | vs Stephen Kolek | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Edouard Julien | — | vs Ryan Gusto | 60.6% | Hit |
| Xavier Edwards | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 60.3% | No Hit |
| Liam Hicks | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 60.2% | No Hit |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | — | vs Ian Seymour | 60.2% | No Hit |
| Andy Pages | — | vs Randy Vásquez | 60.1% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Mickey Moniak — 25.2% HR probability
- Carter Jensen — 23.9% HR probability
- Jackson Merrill — 23.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Jacob Misiorowski — proj 8.1, recorded 10
- Bryce Miller — proj 5.1, recorded 8
- Nathan Eovaldi — proj 5.1, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Davis Martin — proj 5.1, recorded 0
- Ian Seymour — proj 3.1, recorded 8
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Mickey Moniak. Model HR probability 25.2% — result: Home Run.
Live on EdgeRanked
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
3-day free trial. The full results archive stays free.
Explore More