MLB Results — July 2, 2026

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MLB Model Results — July 2, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Jared Jones 31.1% No Home Run

#2 Brandon Lowe— · vs Alan Rangel 30.4% No Home Run

#3 Jac Caglianone— · vs Ian Seymour 29.7% No Home Run

#4 Owen Caissie— · vs Michael Lorenzen 26.6% No Home Run

#5 Mickey Moniak— · vs Ryan Gusto 25.2% Home Run

#6 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Randy Vásquez 25.0% No Home Run

#7 Zach Neto— · vs Bryce Miller 25.0% No Home Run

#8 Kyle Stowers— · vs Michael Lorenzen 23.9% No Home Run

#9 Carter Jensen— · vs Ian Seymour 23.9% Home Run

#10 Andrew Benintendi— · vs Slade Cecconi 23.9% No Home Run

#11 Dillon Dingler— · vs Nathan Eovaldi 23.9% No Home Run

#12 Jackson Merrill— · vs Roki Sasaki 23.9% Home Run

#13 Luke Raley— · vs Walbert Ureña 23.8% No Home Run

#14 Austin Riley— · vs Dustin May 23.8% No Home Run

#15 Matt Olson— · vs Dustin May 23.8% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Jacob Misiorowskivs Cincinnati Reds 8.1 10 +1.9

Chase Burnsvs Milwaukee Brewers 7.3 4 -3.3

Dustin Mayvs Atlanta Braves 5.3 1 -4.3

Davis Martinvs Cleveland Guardians 5.1 0 -5.1

Bryce Millervs Los Angeles Angels 5.1 8 +2.9

Nathan Eovaldivs Detroit Tigers 5.1 9 +3.9

Walbert Ureñavs Seattle Mariners 5.0 6 +1.0

Roki Sasakivs San Diego Padres 5.0 3 -2.0

Framber Valdezvs Texas Rangers 3.9 1 -2.9

Randy Vásquezvs Los Angeles Dodgers 3.9 0 -3.9

Stephen Kolekvs Tampa Bay Rays 3.9 0 -3.9

Slade Cecconivs Chicago White Sox 3.9 3 -0.9On target

Jared Jonesvs Philadelphia Phillies 3.9 6 +2.1

Michael Lorenzenvs Miami Marlins 3.7 1 -2.7

Ryan Gustovs Colorado Rockies 3.7 2 -1.7

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Randy Vásquez 62.4% Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Michael Lorenzen 62.3% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Stephen Kolek 62.2% No Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Jared Jones 62.0% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Jared Jones 61.9% No Hit

Otto Lopez— · vs Michael Lorenzen 61.9% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Roki Sasaki 61.4% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Jared Jones 61.3% No Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Randy Vásquez 61.1% Hit

Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Stephen Kolek 60.8% No Hit

Edouard Julien— · vs Ryan Gusto 60.6% Hit

Xavier Edwards— · vs Michael Lorenzen 60.3% No Hit

Liam HicksTampa Bay Rays · vs Michael Lorenzen 60.2% No Hit

Bobby Witt Jr.— · vs Ian Seymour 60.2% No Hit

Andy Pages— · vs Randy Vásquez 60.1% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Mickey Moniak — 25.2% HR probability
Carter Jensen — 23.9% HR probability
Jackson Merrill — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Jacob Misiorowski — proj 8.1, recorded 10
Bryce Miller — proj 5.1, recorded 8
Nathan Eovaldi — proj 5.1, recorded 9

Biggest Surprises

Davis Martin — proj 5.1, recorded 0
Ian Seymour — proj 3.1, recorded 8

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Mickey Moniak. Model HR probability 25.2% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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