Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — April 17, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
351
Hitters evaluated
29
Pitchers evaluated
April 17, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Aaron Judge | — | vs Michael Wacha | 11.0% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Martín Pérez | 9.1% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 8.4% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Giancarlo Stanton | — | vs Michael Wacha | 8.0% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Davis Martin | 6.4% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Kyle Leahy | 6.1% | Home Run |
| #7 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Martín Pérez | 6.1% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Chase DeLauter | — | vs Chris Bassitt | 5.9% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | vs Matt Waldron | 5.6% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Davis Martin | 5.6% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Tanner Bibee | 5.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | James Wood | — | vs Logan Webb | 5.1% | Home Run |
| #13 | Teoscar Hernández | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 5.0% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Jordan Walker | — | vs Peter Lambert | 5.0% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Dillon Dingler | — | vs Ranger Suarez | 4.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | Texas Rangers | 6.0 | 7 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Jacob deGrom | Seattle Mariners | 6.0 | 3 | -3.0 | |
| José Soriano | San Diego Padres | 6.0 | 8 | +2.0 | |
| Cam Schlittler | Kansas City Royals | 6.0 | 6 | -0.0 | On Target |
| Tyler Glasnow | Colorado Rockies | 6.0 | 7 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Joe Ryan | Cincinnati Reds | 6.0 | 6 | -0.0 | On Target |
| Michael Soroka | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 | On Target |
| Logan Webb | Washington Nationals | 5.4 | 6 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Edward Cabrera | New York Mets | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| Bubba Chandler | Tampa Bay Rays | 4.6 | 3 | -1.6 | |
| Michael Wacha | New York Yankees | 4.6 | 6 | +1.4 | |
| Kodai Senga | Chicago Cubs | 4.4 | 3 | -1.4 | |
| Peter Lambert | St. Louis Cardinals | 4.4 | 8 | +3.6 | |
| Davis Martin | Athletics | 4.4 | 4 | -0.4 | On Target |
| Eric Lauer | Arizona Diamondbacks | 4.4 | 4 | -0.4 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner | — | vs Kodai Senga | 62.0% | Hit |
| Bo Bichette | — | vs Edward Cabrera | 61.8% | Hit |
| Daniel Schneemann | — | vs Chris Bassitt | 61.6% | Hit |
| Steven Kwan | — | vs Chris Bassitt | 61.5% | Hit |
| Carson Kelly | — | vs Kodai Senga | 61.0% | Hit |
| Luis Robert Jr. | — | vs Edward Cabrera | 61.0% | Hit |
| Moisés Ballesteros | — | vs Kodai Senga | 60.7% | Hit |
| Angel Martínez | — | vs Chris Bassitt | 60.6% | Hit |
| Chase DeLauter | — | vs Chris Bassitt | 60.4% | Hit |
| Brett Baty | — | vs Edward Cabrera | 60.1% | No Hit |
| José Ramírez | — | vs Chris Bassitt | 60.0% | No Hit |
| Austin Martin | Minnesota Twins | vs Brandon Williamson | 59.8% | Hit |
| Francisco Alvarez | New York Mets | vs Edward Cabrera | 59.7% | Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 59.5% | Hit |
| Casey Schmitt | San Francisco Giants | vs Zack Littell | 59.4% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Yordan Alvarez — 6.1% HR probability
- James Wood — 5.1% HR probability
- Munetaka Murakami — 4.8% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Logan Gilbert — proj 6.0, recorded 7
- José Soriano — proj 6.0, recorded 8
- Tyler Glasnow — proj 6.0, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Peter Lambert — proj 4.4, recorded 8
- Jacob deGrom — proj 6.0, recorded 3
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Yordan Alvarez. Model HR probability 6.1% — result: Home Run.
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