Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — April 22, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
1
Games covered
3
Hitters evaluated
2
Pitchers evaluated
April 22, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Luke Raley | — | vs Aaron Civale | 5.1% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Carlos Cortes | — | vs Logan Gilbert | 4.4% | No Home Run |
| #3 | J.P. Crawford | — | vs Aaron Civale | 2.7% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Lambert | Cleveland Guardians | 6.5 | 8 | +1.5 | |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Texas Rangers | 5.9 | 5 | -0.9 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Cortes | — | vs Logan Gilbert | 58.6% | Hit |
| Luke Raley | — | vs Aaron Civale | 57.7% | No Hit |
| J.P. Crawford | — | vs Aaron Civale | 57.0% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Peter Lambert — proj 6.5, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Peter Lambert — proj 6.5, recorded 8
- Braxton Ashcraft — proj 5.9, recorded 5
Highest Performing Projection — Strikeout Projection: Peter Lambert. Projected 6.5 strikeouts — recorded 8.
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