Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — April 7, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
403
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
April 7, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Aaron Judge | — | vs Aaron Civale | 9.1% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Kyle Freeland | 7.7% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Giancarlo Stanton | — | vs Aaron Civale | 7.6% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Cam Schlittler | 7.6% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Robbie Ray | 7.3% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Cam Schlittler | 7.1% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Kevin Gausman | 7.0% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Ramón Laureano | — | vs Paul Skenes | 6.4% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Christian Walker | Houston Astros | vs Kyle Freeland | 5.9% | Home Run |
| #10 | Zach Neto | — | vs Reynaldo López | 5.7% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Drake Baldwin | — | vs Yusei Kikuchi | 5.7% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Munetaka Murakami | — | vs Trevor Rogers | 5.5% | No Home Run |
| #13 | James Wood | — | vs Matthew Liberatore | 5.1% | Home Run |
| #14 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs Nathan Eovaldi | 4.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | vs Shane Smith | 4.8% | Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | Athletics | 7.3 | 7 | -0.3 | On Target |
| Kevin Gausman | Los Angeles Dodgers | 7.2 | 5 | -2.2 | |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Boston Red Sox | 6.9 | 10 | +3.1 | |
| Garrett Crochet | Milwaukee Brewers | 6.8 | 7 | +0.2 | On Target |
| Tarik Skubal | Minnesota Twins | 6.8 | 7 | +0.2 | On Target |
| Gavin Williams | Kansas City Royals | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 | |
| Cristopher Sánchez | San Francisco Giants | 6.2 | 6 | -0.2 | On Target |
| George Kirby | Texas Rangers | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 | |
| Trevor Rogers | Chicago White Sox | 5.5 | 6 | +0.5 | On Target |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.5 | 6 | +0.5 | On Target |
| Freddy Peralta | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.0 | 5 | +0.0 | On Target |
| Sandy Alcantara | Cincinnati Reds | 5.0 | 6 | +1.0 | |
| Robbie Ray | Philadelphia Phillies | 4.9 | 7 | +2.1 | |
| Mike Burrows | Colorado Rockies | 4.9 | 3 | -1.9 | |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Seattle Mariners | 4.8 | 7 | +2.2 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | — | vs Kyle Freeland | 64.0% | No Hit |
| Christian Walker | Houston Astros | vs Kyle Freeland | 63.9% | Hit |
| Brandon Nimmo | — | vs George Kirby | 63.6% | No Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | — | vs Nathan Eovaldi | 63.5% | No Hit |
| Giancarlo Stanton | — | vs Aaron Civale | 63.5% | Hit |
| Teoscar Hernández | — | vs Kevin Gausman | 63.2% | No Hit |
| Otto Lopez | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 63.1% | Hit |
| Aaron Judge | — | vs Aaron Civale | 62.9% | No Hit |
| Ben Rice | — | vs Aaron Civale | 62.8% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | — | vs Javier Assad | 62.8% | No Hit |
| Jake Burger | — | vs George Kirby | 62.7% | No Hit |
| Oneil Cruz | — | vs Nick Pivetta | 62.6% | Hit |
| Wilyer Abreu | — | vs Jacob Misiorowski | 62.6% | No Hit |
| Ryan O'Hearn | — | vs Nick Pivetta | 62.5% | Hit |
| Jeremy Peña | — | vs Kyle Freeland | 62.3% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Christian Walker — 5.9% HR probability
- James Wood — 5.1% HR probability
- Gunnar Henderson — 4.8% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Jacob Misiorowski — proj 6.9, recorded 10
- Garrett Crochet — proj 6.8, recorded 7
- Tarik Skubal — proj 6.8, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Taj Bradley — proj 4.1, recorded 10
- Shane Smith — proj 2.7, recorded 8
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Christian Walker. Model HR probability 5.9% — result: Home Run.
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