Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — April 6, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
13
Games covered
340
Hitters evaluated
26
Pitchers evaluated
April 6, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Adrian Houser | 14.0% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Grant Taylor | 11.8% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Max Scherzer | 9.5% | Home Run |
| #4 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Adrian Houser | 9.3% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Freddie Freeman | — | vs Max Scherzer | 9.3% | Home Run |
| #6 | Zach Neto | — | vs Chris Sale | 9.0% | Home Run |
| #7 | Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 8.7% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Ramón Laureano | — | vs Bubba Chandler | 8.7% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Drake Baldwin | — | vs José Soriano | 8.5% | Home Run |
| #10 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | — | vs Justin Wrobleski | 7.7% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Wilyer Abreu | — | vs Brandon Woodruff | 7.6% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Oneil Cruz | — | vs Germán Márquez | 7.3% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Germán Márquez | 7.2% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Munetaka Murakami | — | vs Brandon Young | 7.1% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Christian Walker | Houston Astros | vs Ryan Feltner | 7.0% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mize | Minnesota Twins | 5.8 | 4 | -1.8 | |
| Andrew Painter | San Francisco Giants | 5.8 | 1 | -4.8 | |
| Chris Sale | Los Angeles Angels | 5.8 | 7 | +1.2 | |
| Logan Gilbert | Texas Rangers | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Brandon Woodruff | Boston Red Sox | 5.8 | 4 | -1.8 | |
| Jacob deGrom | Seattle Mariners | 5.4 | 6 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Joe Ryan | Detroit Tigers | 5.4 | 7 | +1.6 | |
| Max Scherzer | Los Angeles Dodgers | 4.5 | 2 | -2.5 | |
| José Soriano | Atlanta Braves | 4.5 | 10 | +5.5 | |
| Bubba Chandler | San Diego Padres | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Janson Junk | Cincinnati Reds | 4.5 | 3 | -1.5 | |
| Brandon Young | Chicago White Sox | 4.5 | 2 | -2.5 | |
| Shane McClanahan | Chicago Cubs | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 | On Target |
| Grant Taylor | Baltimore Orioles | 4.0 | 1 | -3.0 | |
| Adrian Houser | Philadelphia Phillies | 4.0 | 3 | -1.0 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Pages | — | vs Max Scherzer | 63.4% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | — | vs Jameson Taillon | 63.3% | Hit |
| Jose Altuve | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 63.2% | Hit |
| Brandon Nimmo | — | vs Logan Gilbert | 63.1% | No Hit |
| Christian Walker | Houston Astros | vs Ryan Feltner | 63.1% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 63.0% | No Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Max Scherzer | 63.0% | Hit |
| Teoscar Hernández | — | vs Max Scherzer | 62.9% | Hit |
| Brendan Donovan | — | vs Jacob deGrom | 62.9% | No Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | — | vs Max Scherzer | 62.7% | Hit |
| Jackson Merrill | — | vs Bubba Chandler | 62.7% | Hit |
| Kyle Tucker | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Max Scherzer | 62.6% | Hit |
| Oneil Cruz | — | vs Germán Márquez | 62.6% | Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | — | vs Jacob deGrom | 62.5% | Hit |
| Wilyer Abreu | — | vs Brandon Woodruff | 62.4% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Shohei Ohtani — 9.5% HR probability
- Freddie Freeman — 9.3% HR probability
- Zach Neto — 9.0% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Chris Sale — proj 5.8, recorded 7
- Jacob deGrom — proj 5.4, recorded 6
- Joe Ryan — proj 5.4, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- José Soriano — proj 4.5, recorded 10
- Andrew Painter — proj 5.8, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Shohei Ohtani. Model HR probability 9.5% — result: Home Run.
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