Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — April 8, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
394
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
April 8, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Aaron Judge | — | vs Luis Severino | 9.2% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Tyler Mahle | 7.9% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Dylan Cease | 7.2% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 6.5% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Zach Neto | — | vs Grant Holmes | 5.7% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Will Warren | 5.6% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Giancarlo Stanton | — | vs Luis Severino | 5.6% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Drake Baldwin | — | vs Reid Detmers | 5.5% | No Home Run |
| #9 | James Wood | — | vs Michael McGreevy | 5.5% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Will Warren | 5.3% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Tyler Mahle | 5.1% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Chase DeLauter | — | vs Cole Ragans | 5.1% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Oneil Cruz | — | vs Michael King | 5.1% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs MacKenzie Gore | 5.0% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Munetaka Murakami | — | vs Kyle Bradish | 5.0% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacKenzie Gore | Seattle Mariners | 6.0 | 9 | +3.0 | |
| Dylan Cease | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.3 | 8 | +2.7 | |
| Joe Boyle | Chicago Cubs | 5.3 | 3 | -2.3 | |
| Joey Cantillo | Kansas City Royals | 5.3 | 9 | +3.7 | |
| Eury Pérez | Cincinnati Reds | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Kyle Bradish | Chicago White Sox | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 | |
| Sean Burke | Baltimore Orioles | 5.3 | 3 | -2.3 | |
| Bryan Woo | Texas Rangers | 5.3 | 2 | -3.3 | |
| Grant Holmes | Los Angeles Angels | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Aaron Nola | San Francisco Giants | 4.6 | 3 | -1.6 | |
| Will Warren | Athletics | 4.6 | 5 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Michael King | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4.6 | 4 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Shohei Ohtani | Toronto Blue Jays | 4.6 | 2 | -2.6 | |
| Sonny Gray | Milwaukee Brewers | 4.6 | 2 | -2.6 | |
| Framber Valdez | Minnesota Twins | 4.6 | 2 | -2.6 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle | — | vs Bailey Ober | 63.1% | Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | — | vs Dylan Cease | 63.1% | Hit |
| Corbin Carroll | — | vs David Peterson | 62.0% | Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Michael McGreevy | 61.9% | No Hit |
| Zach Neto | — | vs Grant Holmes | 61.9% | Hit |
| Ildemaro Vargas | — | vs David Peterson | 61.7% | Hit |
| Jose Altuve | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 61.5% | Hit |
| JJ Wetherholt | — | vs Miles Mikolas | 61.5% | No Hit |
| Mark Vientos | — | vs Ryne Nelson | 61.4% | No Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Dylan Cease | 61.4% | No Hit |
| Ketel Marte | — | vs David Peterson | 61.3% | Hit |
| Christian Walker | Houston Astros | vs Michael Lorenzen | 61.3% | Hit |
| Brett Baty | — | vs Ryne Nelson | 61.2% | Hit |
| Drake Baldwin | — | vs Reid Detmers | 61.1% | Hit |
| Nico Hoerner | — | vs Joe Boyle | 60.8% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Jordan Walker — 4.8% HR probability
- Jorge Soler — 3.8% HR probability
- Hunter Goodman — 3.6% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- MacKenzie Gore — proj 6.0, recorded 9
- Dylan Cease — proj 5.3, recorded 8
- Joey Cantillo — proj 5.3, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Joey Cantillo — proj 5.3, recorded 9
- Luis Severino — proj 3.4, recorded 7
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Jordan Walker. Model HR probability 4.8% — result: Home Run.
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