MLB Results — August 21, 2026

MLB Model Results — August 21, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Freddy Peralta 31.0% No Home Run

#2 Jac Caglianone— · vs Troy Melton 27.4% No Home Run

#3 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Bubba Chandler 26.2% No Home Run

#4 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Unknown Pitcher 25.4% No Home Run

#5 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Hunter Dobbins 25.4% No Home Run

#6 Jo AdellCleveland Guardians · vs Tanner Gordon 25.3% No Home Run

#7 Zach Neto— · vs MacKenzie Gore 25.2% No Home Run

#8 Brandon Lowe— · vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto 25.0% No Home Run

#9 Owen Caissie— · vs Brad Lord 24.4% No Home Run

#10 Pete Alonso— · vs Freddy Peralta 24.3% Home Run

#11 Byron Buxton— · vs Randy Vásquez 24.3% No Home Run

#12 Royce Lewis— · vs Randy Vásquez 24.2% No Home Run

#13 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Cam Schlittler 24.2% No Home Run

#14 Yordan Alvarez— · vs J.T. Ginn 24.1% No Home Run

#15 Joc Pederson— · vs Reid Detmers 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Jacob Misiorowskivs Atlanta Braves 7.6 6 -1.6

Chris Salevs Milwaukee Brewers 7.4 6 -1.4

Sean Burkevs New York Mets 7.0 4 -3.0

Sean Manaeavs Chicago White Sox 6.8 4 -2.8

MacKenzie Gorevs Los Angeles Angels 6.8 7 +0.2On target

Yoshinobu Yamamotovs Pittsburgh Pirates 6.5 9 +2.5

Jesús Luzardovs St. Louis Cardinals 6.2 9 +2.8

Noah Cameronvs Detroit Tigers 6.0 2 -4.0

Cam Schlittlervs Toronto Blue Jays 5.8 4 -1.8

Sonny Grayvs San Francisco Giants 5.6 6 +0.4On target

Connor Prielippvs San Diego Padres 5.6 7 +1.4

Eduardo Rodriguezvs Cincinnati Reds 5.4 4 -1.4

J.T. Ginnvs Houston Astros 5.4 4 -1.4

Troy Meltonvs Kansas City Royals 5.3 3 -2.3

Reid Detmersvs Texas Rangers 5.3 5 -0.3On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Bubba Chandler 62.4% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs J.T. Ginn 62.1% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Connor Prielipp 62.1% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Hunter Dobbins 61.0% No Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 61.0% No Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Bubba Chandler 61.0% No Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Trevor Rogers 60.9% No Hit

Oneil Cruz— · vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto 60.9% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Sonny Gray 60.9% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Hunter Dobbins 60.8% No Hit

Byron Buxton— · vs Randy Vásquez 60.7% No Hit

Andy Pages— · vs Bubba Chandler 60.6% No Hit

Brandon Lowe— · vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto 60.6% Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Sean Burke 60.3% Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto 60.3% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Pete Alonso — 24.3% HR probability
Carter Jensen — 23.9% HR probability
Pete Crow-Armstrong — 23.2% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

MacKenzie Gore — proj 6.8, recorded 7
Yoshinobu Yamamoto — proj 6.5, recorded 9
Jesús Luzardo — proj 6.2, recorded 9

Biggest Surprises

Noah Cameron — proj 6.0, recorded 2
Logan Webb — proj 5.2, recorded 2

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Pete Alonso. Model HR probability 24.3% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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