Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 19, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
421
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
August 19, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | Detroit Tigers | 6.6 | 5 | -1.6 | |
| Logan Gilbert | Milwaukee Brewers | 6.5 | 5 | -1.5 | |
| Ethan Pecko | Los Angeles Angels | 6.2 | 4 | -2.2 | |
| Chase Burns | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.9 | 8 | +2.1 | |
| Payton Tolle | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.8 | 6 | +0.2 | On Target |
| Matthew Liberatore | Cincinnati Reds | 5.8 | 9 | +3.2 | |
| Parker Messick | San Francisco Giants | 5.7 | 10 | +4.3 | |
| Aaron Nola | Miami Marlins | 5.7 | 8 | +2.3 | |
| Will Warren | Baltimore Orioles | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Dustin May | Seattle Mariners | 5.7 | 1 | -4.7 | |
| Drew Rasmussen | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.6 | 5 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Taj Bradley | Atlanta Braves | 5.4 | 7 | +1.6 | |
| Matt Wilkinson | Cleveland Guardians | 5.4 | 0 | -5.4 | |
| Sandy Alcantara | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.3 | 1 | -4.3 | |
| Roki Sasaki | Colorado Rockies | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Chase Burns — proj 5.9, recorded 8
- Payton Tolle — proj 5.8, recorded 6
- Matthew Liberatore — proj 5.8, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Cade Cavalli — proj 4.1, recorded 11
- Matt Wilkinson — proj 5.4, recorded 0
Highest Performing Projection — Strikeout Projection: Chase Burns. Projected 5.9 strikeouts — recorded 8.
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