Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 19, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
421
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
August 19, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Kyle Freeland | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Jeffrey Springs | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Coby Mayo | — | vs Will Warren | 30.8% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Mickey Moniak | — | vs Roki Sasaki | 30.6% | Home Run |
| #5 | Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 29.4% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Max Muncy | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Kyle Freeland | 27.9% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Jeffrey Springs | 26.9% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Unknown Pitcher | 26.6% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Jackson Jobe | 26.4% | Home Run |
| #10 | Michael Conforto | — | vs Sean Newcomb | 25.6% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Alec Burleson | — | vs Chase Burns | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Teoscar Hernández | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Kyle Freeland | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Drew Rasmussen | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Francisco Lindor | — | vs Michael King | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Willy Adames | — | vs Parker Messick | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | Detroit Tigers | 6.6 | 5 | -1.6 | |
| Logan Gilbert | Milwaukee Brewers | 6.5 | 5 | -1.5 | |
| Ethan Pecko | Los Angeles Angels | 6.2 | 4 | -2.2 | |
| Chase Burns | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.9 | 8 | +2.1 | |
| Payton Tolle | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.8 | 6 | +0.2 | On Target |
| Matthew Liberatore | Cincinnati Reds | 5.8 | 9 | +3.2 | |
| Parker Messick | San Francisco Giants | 5.7 | 10 | +4.3 | |
| Aaron Nola | Miami Marlins | 5.7 | 8 | +2.3 | |
| Will Warren | Baltimore Orioles | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Dustin May | Seattle Mariners | 5.7 | 1 | -4.7 | |
| Drew Rasmussen | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.6 | 5 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Taj Bradley | Atlanta Braves | 5.4 | 7 | +1.6 | |
| Matt Wilkinson | Cleveland Guardians | 5.4 | 0 | -5.4 | |
| Sandy Alcantara | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.3 | 1 | -4.3 | |
| Roki Sasaki | Colorado Rockies | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Kyle Freeland | 63.6% | No Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Robert Stock | 62.0% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 61.8% | Hit |
| Andy Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Kyle Freeland | 61.1% | Hit |
| Wilyer Abreu | — | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 61.1% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 61.1% | No Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Walbert Ureña | 60.9% | Hit |
| Brett Baty | — | vs Michael King | 60.7% | No Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Chris Bassitt | 60.6% | Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | — | vs Sean Newcomb | 60.6% | No Hit |
| Brandon Lowe | — | vs Jackson Jobe | 60.5% | Hit |
| Oneil Cruz | — | vs Jackson Jobe | 60.5% | Hit |
| CJ Abrams | — | vs Kumar Rocker | 60.4% | Hit |
| Bryan Reynolds | — | vs Jackson Jobe | 60.3% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | — | vs Matthew Liberatore | 60.1% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Mickey Moniak — 30.6% HR probability
- Brandon Lowe — 26.4% HR probability
- Pete Alonso — 18.8% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Chase Burns — proj 5.9, recorded 8
- Payton Tolle — proj 5.8, recorded 6
- Matthew Liberatore — proj 5.8, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Cade Cavalli — proj 4.1, recorded 11
- Matt Wilkinson — proj 5.4, recorded 0
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Mickey Moniak. Model HR probability 30.6% — result: Home Run.
Live on EdgeRanked
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
3-day free trial. The full results archive stays free.
Explore More