Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 18, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
424
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
August 18, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | — | vs Carlos Rodón | 31.0% | Home Run |
| #2 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Keider Montero | 30.6% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Ryan Feltner | 29.0% | Home Run |
| #4 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Jack Perkins | 28.4% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Brady Basso | 26.6% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Andrew Benintendi | Chicago White Sox | vs Kevin Gausman | 26.1% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Jack Perkins | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Jo Adell | — | vs Carson Whisenhunt | 25.2% | Home Run |
| #9 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Zack Wheeler | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Tyler O'Neill | — | vs Carlos Rodón | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | vs Zebby Matthews | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Yordan Alvarez | — | vs George Klassen | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Cade Gibson | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Owen Caissie | — | vs Zack Wheeler | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Kevin Gausman | 24.1% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft | Detroit Tigers | 6.8 | 4 | -2.8 | |
| Zack Wheeler | Miami Marlins | 6.6 | 7 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Carlos Rodón | Baltimore Orioles | 6.2 | 4 | -2.2 | |
| Kyle Harrison | Seattle Mariners | 5.8 | 8 | +2.2 | |
| Jack Perkins | Kansas City Royals | 5.8 | 4 | -1.8 | |
| Bryce Miller | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.8 | 3 | -2.8 | |
| Kevin Gausman | Chicago White Sox | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Kyle Leahy | Cincinnati Reds | 5.7 | 6 | +0.3 | On Target |
| Jackson Kent | Texas Rangers | 5.7 | 3 | -2.7 | |
| Shane Baz | New York Yankees | 5.6 | 10 | +4.4 | |
| Tyler Mahle | Minnesota Twins | 5.6 | 3 | -2.6 | |
| Keider Montero | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 | |
| Robbie Ray | New York Mets | 4.8 | 4 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Foster Griffin | San Francisco Giants | 4.7 | 6 | +1.3 | |
| José Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays | 4.7 | 2 | -2.7 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Ryan Feltner | 63.3% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | — | vs George Klassen | 62.8% | No Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Ryan Feltner | 62.5% | Hit |
| CJ Abrams | — | vs Cal Quantrill | 62.1% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Zac Thornton | 62.1% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | — | vs Cade Gibson | 62.1% | No Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | — | vs Bryan Hudson | 62.0% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Cade Gibson | 62.0% | Hit |
| Andy Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Ryan Feltner | 61.6% | Hit |
| Oneil Cruz | — | vs Keider Montero | 61.5% | Hit |
| Iván Herrera | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 61.4% | No Hit |
| Willi Castro | — | vs Eric Lauer | 61.3% | Hit |
| Brandon Lowe | — | vs Keider Montero | 61.3% | No Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | — | vs Kyle Leahy | 61.2% | No Hit |
| Wilyer Abreu | — | vs Merrill Kelly | 61.1% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Coby Mayo — 31.0% HR probability
- Shohei Ohtani — 29.0% HR probability
- Jo Adell — 25.2% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Zack Wheeler — proj 6.6, recorded 7
- Kyle Harrison — proj 5.8, recorded 8
- Kyle Leahy — proj 5.7, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Shane Baz — proj 5.6, recorded 10
- George Klassen — proj 2.7, recorded 7
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Coby Mayo. Model HR probability 31.0% — result: Home Run.
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