Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 20, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
9
Games covered
235
Hitters evaluated
18
Pitchers evaluated
August 20, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Andrew Benintendi | — | vs Grant Holmes | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Ian Seymour | 24.4% | Home Run |
| #3 | Colson Montgomery | — | vs Grant Holmes | 24.3% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Munetaka Murakami | — | vs Grant Holmes | 24.3% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Grayson Rodriguez | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Gage Jump | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Alec Burleson | — | vs Brady Singer | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Pete Alonso | — | vs Gerrit Cole | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | vs Anthony Kay | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Daylen Lile | — | vs Jacob deGrom | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Zach Neto | — | vs Peter Lambert | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #12 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Atlanta Braves | vs Anthony Kay | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Willy Adames | — | vs Gavin Williams | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #14 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs Robert Gasser | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Elly De La Cruz | — | vs Michael McGreevy | 23.2% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | New York Yankees | 7.3 | 5 | -2.3 | |
| Gavin Williams | San Francisco Giants | 7.1 | 11 | +3.9 | |
| Gerrit Cole | Baltimore Orioles | 7.0 | 8 | +1.0 | |
| Peter Lambert | Los Angeles Angels | 6.2 | 3 | -3.2 | |
| Ian Seymour | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.9 | 8 | +2.1 | |
| Jacob deGrom | Washington Nationals | 5.9 | 10 | +4.1 | |
| Andrew Alvarez | Texas Rangers | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Gage Jump | Kansas City Royals | 5.3 | 3 | -2.3 | |
| Michael McGreevy | Cincinnati Reds | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 | On Target |
| George Kirby | Milwaukee Brewers | 4.7 | 3 | -1.7 | |
| Landen Roupp | Cleveland Guardians | 4.6 | 2 | -2.6 | |
| Grant Holmes | Chicago White Sox | 4.5 | 3 | -1.5 | |
| Robert Gasser | Seattle Mariners | 4.4 | 4 | -0.4 | On Target |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Houston Astros | 4.2 | 6 | +1.8 | |
| Brady Singer | St. Louis Cardinals | 4.0 | 3 | -1.0 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Grayson Rodriguez | 62.9% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | — | vs Michael McGreevy | 62.2% | Hit |
| Alec Burleson | — | vs Brady Singer | 61.1% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | — | vs Shane Bieber | 61.0% | Hit |
| Zack Gelof | — | vs Randy Dobnak | 61.0% | No Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Gavin Williams | 60.8% | Hit |
| Jake Bauers | Milwaukee Brewers | vs George Kirby | 60.8% | Hit |
| Iván Herrera | — | vs Brady Singer | 60.8% | Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | — | vs Robert Gasser | 60.7% | No Hit |
| Lane Thomas | Atlanta Braves | vs Anthony Kay | 60.7% | No Hit |
| Jordan Walker | — | vs Brady Singer | 60.2% | Hit |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | — | vs Gage Jump | 60.2% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | — | vs Kyle Bradish | 60.1% | Hit |
| Brandon Nimmo | — | vs Andrew Alvarez | 59.9% | No Hit |
| Josh Naylor | — | vs Robert Gasser | 59.8% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Kazuma Okamoto — 24.4% HR probability
- Zach Neto — 23.9% HR probability
- Willy Adames — 23.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Gavin Williams — proj 7.1, recorded 11
- Gerrit Cole — proj 7.0, recorded 8
- Ian Seymour — proj 5.9, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Jacob deGrom — proj 5.9, recorded 10
- Shane Bieber — proj 3.0, recorded 7
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kazuma Okamoto. Model HR probability 24.4% — result: Home Run.
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