Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 17, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
12
Games covered
320
Hitters evaluated
23
Pitchers evaluated
August 17, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | — | vs Shane McClanahan | 31.0% | Home Run |
| #2 | Joshua Báez | — | vs Kent Emanuel | 29.5% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Mason Barnett | 28.7% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 27.1% | Home Run |
| #5 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Cristopher Sánchez | 26.2% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Tyler O'Neill | — | vs Shane McClanahan | 25.9% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Munetaka Murakami | — | vs Shota Imanaga | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Andrew Benintendi | — | vs Shota Imanaga | 25.0% | Home Run |
| #9 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Mason Barnett | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Carter Jensen | — | vs Mason Barnett | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | — | vs Luis Castillo | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #12 | Michael Conforto | — | vs Luis Castillo | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | vs Bailey Ober | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Framber Valdez | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Elly De La Cruz | — | vs Unknown Pitcher | 23.1% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sánchez | Miami Marlins | 7.0 | 6 | -1.0 | On Target |
| Nolan McLean | San Diego Padres | 6.7 | 3 | -3.7 | |
| Blake Snell | Colorado Rockies | 6.2 | 5 | -1.2 | |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago White Sox | 5.9 | 10 | +4.1 | |
| Michael Wacha | Athletics | 5.2 | 3 | -2.2 | |
| Andre Pallante | Cincinnati Reds | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Luis Castillo | Chicago Cubs | 5.0 | 1 | -4.0 | |
| Framber Valdez | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.0 | 5 | +0.0 | On Target |
| Shane McClanahan | Baltimore Orioles | 4.9 | 3 | -1.9 | |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | Detroit Tigers | 4.4 | 3 | -1.4 | |
| Walker Buehler | New York Mets | 4.2 | 4 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Martín Pérez | Minnesota Twins | 4.2 | 3 | -1.2 | |
| Rhett Lowder | St. Louis Cardinals | 4.0 | 5 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Bailey Ober | Atlanta Braves | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Brandon Young | Tampa Bay Rays | 3.8 | 3 | -0.8 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Freeman | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 64.5% | Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 64.5% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Janson Junk | 64.5% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Janson Junk | 64.5% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | — | vs Nolan McLean | 62.3% | No Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | — | vs Luis Castillo | 62.2% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | — | vs Janson Junk | 61.9% | No Hit |
| Andy Pages | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 61.7% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | — | vs Brandon Young | 61.5% | Hit |
| Byron Buxton | — | vs Martín Pérez | 61.4% | Hit |
| Wilyer Abreu | — | vs Mitch Bratt | 61.4% | Hit |
| Bryan Reynolds | — | vs Framber Valdez | 61.1% | No Hit |
| Zack Gelof | — | vs Michael Wacha | 60.9% | Hit |
| Kyle Tucker | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Max Muncy | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 60.6% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Coby Mayo — 31.0% HR probability
- Shohei Ohtani — 27.1% HR probability
- Andrew Benintendi — 25.0% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Shota Imanaga — proj 5.9, recorded 10
- Framber Valdez — proj 5.0, recorded 5
- Rhett Lowder — proj 4.0, recorded 5
Biggest Surprises
- Quinn Mathews — proj 1.4, recorded 7
- Shota Imanaga — proj 5.9, recorded 10
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Coby Mayo. Model HR probability 31.0% — result: Home Run.
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