Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 11, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
419
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
August 11, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Eury Pérez | 30.4% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Austin Hays | — | vs Kyle Harrison | 28.6% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Bailey Ober | 28.0% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Andre Pallante | 26.6% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Jackson Merrill | — | vs Kyle Harrison | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Mitch Bratt | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Royce Lewis | Minnesota Twins | vs Brandon Young | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Riley Greene | — | vs Tanner Bibee | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Munetaka Murakami | — | vs Nick Lodolo | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Colson Montgomery | — | vs Nick Lodolo | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Dylan Crews | — | vs Shota Imanaga | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #12 | Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | vs Nolan McLean | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #13 | Willy Adames | — | vs Hunter Brown | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Blake Snell | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Zach Neto | Los Angeles Angels | vs Cody Bradford | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Boston Red Sox | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Sean Burke | Cincinnati Reds | 7.2 | 8 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Nolan McLean | Atlanta Braves | 7.1 | 3 | -4.1 | |
| Kyle Harrison | San Diego Padres | 6.5 | 3 | -3.5 | |
| Eury Pérez | Pittsburgh Pirates | 6.4 | 7 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Ryan Weathers | Seattle Mariners | 6.0 | 4 | -2.0 | |
| Paul Skenes | Miami Marlins | 5.7 | 4 | -1.7 | |
| Shota Imanaga | Washington Nationals | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Cristopher Sánchez | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| Bryan Woo | New York Yankees | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 | On Target |
| Hunter Brown | San Francisco Giants | 5.3 | 4 | -1.3 | |
| Cody Bradford | Los Angeles Angels | 5.2 | 1 | -4.2 | |
| Patrick Sandoval | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Tanner Bibee | Detroit Tigers | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Jake Irvin | Chicago Cubs | 4.3 | 4 | -0.3 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Michael Wacha | 62.8% | No Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Andre Pallante | 62.4% | No Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Carson Whisenhunt | 62.1% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Andre Pallante | 61.9% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Kyle Harrison | 61.7% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Mason Barnett | 61.6% | Hit |
| Zack Gelof | — | vs Nick Martinez | 61.4% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Hunter Brown | 61.4% | No Hit |
| Brandon Nimmo | Texas Rangers | vs Ryan Johnson | 61.3% | Hit |
| Austin Hays | — | vs Kyle Harrison | 61.3% | Hit |
| Jake McCarthy | Colorado Rockies | vs Mitch Bratt | 61.2% | No Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Andre Pallante | 61.2% | Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Michael Wacha | 61.2% | No Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Jake Irvin | 61.2% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Bryan Woo | 61.0% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Fernando Tatis Jr. — 23.9% HR probability
- Dylan Crews — 23.9% HR probability
- Matt Olson — 23.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Sean Burke — proj 7.2, recorded 8
- Eury Pérez — proj 6.4, recorded 7
- Cristopher Sánchez — proj 5.6, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Blake Snell — proj 1.8, recorded 10
- Cody Bradford — proj 5.2, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Fernando Tatis Jr.. Model HR probability 23.9% — result: Home Run.
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