MLB Results — August 11, 2026

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MLB Model Results — August 11, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Brandon Lowe— · vs Eury Pérez 30.4% No Home Run

#2 Austin Hays— · vs Kyle Harrison 28.6% No Home Run

#3 Coby Mayo— · vs Bailey Ober 28.0% No Home Run

#4 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Andre Pallante 26.6% No Home Run

#5 Jackson Merrill— · vs Kyle Harrison 24.2% No Home Run

#6 Hunter Goodman— · vs Mitch Bratt 24.2% No Home Run

#7 Royce Lewis— · vs Brandon Young 24.2% No Home Run

#8 Riley Greene— · vs Tanner Bibee 24.1% No Home Run

#9 Munetaka Murakami— · vs Nick Lodolo 24.1% No Home Run

#10 Colson Montgomery— · vs Nick Lodolo 24.1% No Home Run

#11 Dylan Crews— · vs Shota Imanaga 23.9% Home Run

#12 Matt Olson— · vs Nolan McLean 23.9% Home Run

#13 Willy Adames— · vs Hunter Brown 23.9% No Home Run

#14 Salvador Perez— · vs Blake Snell 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Zach Neto— · vs Cody Bradford 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Dylan Ceasevs Boston Red Sox 7.5 7 -0.5On target

Sean Burkevs Cincinnati Reds 7.2 8 +0.8On target

Nolan McLeanvs Atlanta Braves 7.1 3 -4.1

Kyle Harrisonvs San Diego Padres 6.5 3 -3.5

Eury Pérezvs Pittsburgh Pirates 6.4 7 +0.6On target

Ryan Weathersvs Seattle Mariners 6.0 4 -2.0

Paul Skenesvs Miami Marlins 5.7 4 -1.7

Shota Imanagavs Washington Nationals 5.7 5 -0.7On target

Cristopher Sánchezvs St. Louis Cardinals 5.6 7 +1.4

Bryan Woovs New York Yankees 5.4 5 -0.4On target

Hunter Brownvs San Francisco Giants 5.3 4 -1.3

Cody Bradfordvs Los Angeles Angels 5.2 1 -4.2

Patrick Sandovalvs Toronto Blue Jays 5.1 4 -1.1

Tanner Bibeevs Detroit Tigers 4.5 4 -0.5On target

Jake Irvinvs Chicago Cubs 4.3 4 -0.3On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Michael Wacha 62.8% No Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Andre Pallante 62.4% No Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Carson Whisenhunt 62.1% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Andre Pallante 61.9% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Kyle Harrison 61.7% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Mason Barnett 61.6% Hit

Zack Gelof— · vs Nick Martinez 61.4% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Hunter Brown 61.4% No Hit

Brandon Nimmo— · vs Ryan Johnson 61.3% Hit

Austin Hays— · vs Kyle Harrison 61.3% Hit

Jake McCarthy— · vs Mitch Bratt 61.2% No Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Andre Pallante 61.2% Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Michael Wacha 61.2% No Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Jake Irvin 61.2% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Bryan Woo 61.0% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Fernando Tatis Jr. — 23.9% HR probability
Dylan Crews — 23.9% HR probability
Matt Olson — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Sean Burke — proj 7.2, recorded 8
Eury Pérez — proj 6.4, recorded 7
Cristopher Sánchez — proj 5.6, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Blake Snell — proj 1.8, recorded 10
Cody Bradford — proj 5.2, recorded 1

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Fernando Tatis Jr.. Model HR probability 23.9% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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