MLB Results — July 24, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 24, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Grant Holmes 31.1% No Home Run

#2 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Cam Schlittler 30.9% No Home Run

#3 Hunter Goodman— · vs Shane Drohan 28.3% No Home Run

#4 Salvador Perez— · vs Tarik Skubal 26.2% No Home Run

#5 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Patrick Sandoval 25.2% Home Run

#6 Michael Conforto— · vs Jared Jones 25.0% No Home Run

#7 Byron Buxton— · vs Jacob Lopez 25.0% No Home Run

#8 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Will Warren 24.4% No Home Run

#9 Colson Montgomery— · vs Spencer Arrighetti 24.4% No Home Run

#10 Joc Pederson— · vs Bryce Miller 24.2% No Home Run

#11 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Davis Martin 24.2% No Home Run

#12 Jac Caglianone— · vs Tarik Skubal 24.1% No Home Run

#13 Munetaka Murakami— · vs Spencer Arrighetti 24.1% No Home Run

#14 James Wood— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 24.1% No Home Run

#15 Jackson Merrill— · vs Unknown Pitcher 24.1% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Tarik Skubalvs Kansas City Royals 7.4 12 +4.6

Jesús Luzardovs New York Yankees 6.9 9 +2.1

Cam Schlittlervs Philadelphia Phillies 6.8 12 +5.2

Jared Jonesvs Chicago Cubs 6.1 5 -1.1

MacKenzie Gorevs Seattle Mariners 5.7 5 -0.7On target

Shane Drohanvs Colorado Rockies 5.4 6 +0.6On target

Joey Cantillovs Tampa Bay Rays 5.1 4 -1.1

Matthew Boydvs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.1 4 -1.1

Patrick Sandovalvs Toronto Blue Jays 5.1 3 -2.1

Sean Manaeavs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.1 3 -2.1

Spencer Arrighettivs Chicago White Sox 5.1 0 -5.1

Shane McClanahanvs Cleveland Guardians 5.1 3 -2.1

Dustin Mayvs Cincinnati Reds 5.1 8 +2.9

Roki Sasakivs New York Mets 5.0 9 +4.0

Trey Yesavagevs Boston Red Sox 4.8 9 +4.2

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Davis Martin 62.9% Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Sean Manaea 62.2% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Ryan Gusto 62.1% No Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Grayson Rodriguez 61.7% Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Zebby Matthews 61.6% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Roki Sasaki 61.6% No Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Germán Márquez 61.1% Hit

Byron Buxton— · vs Jacob Lopez 61.0% No Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Cam Schlittler 60.9% No Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 60.8% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Dustin May 60.6% Hit

Otto Lopez— · vs Germán Márquez 60.6% Hit

Alec Burleson— · vs Rhett Lowder 60.5% No Hit

Shea Langeliers— · vs Zebby Matthews 60.5% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Joey Cantillo 60.5% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Kazuma Okamoto — 25.2% HR probability
Matt Olson — 23.8% HR probability
Casey Schmitt — 23.7% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Tarik Skubal — proj 7.4, recorded 12
Jesús Luzardo — proj 6.9, recorded 9
Cam Schlittler — proj 6.8, recorded 12

Biggest Surprises

Cam Schlittler — proj 6.8, recorded 12
Spencer Arrighetti — proj 5.1, recorded 0

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kazuma Okamoto. Model HR probability 25.2% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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