Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 24, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
432
Hitters evaluated
33
Pitchers evaluated
July 24, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Grant Holmes | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Cam Schlittler | 30.9% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Shane Drohan | 28.3% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Tarik Skubal | 26.2% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Patrick Sandoval | 25.2% | Home Run |
| #6 | Michael Conforto | — | vs Jared Jones | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Byron Buxton | — | vs Jacob Lopez | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Will Warren | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Spencer Arrighetti | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Joc Pederson | — | vs Bryce Miller | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Davis Martin | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | vs Tarik Skubal | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Munetaka Murakami | — | vs Spencer Arrighetti | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #14 | James Wood | — | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Jackson Merrill | — | vs Unknown Pitcher | 24.1% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | Kansas City Royals | 7.4 | 12 | +4.6 | |
| Jesús Luzardo | New York Yankees | 6.9 | 9 | +2.1 | |
| Cam Schlittler | Philadelphia Phillies | 6.8 | 12 | +5.2 | |
| Jared Jones | Chicago Cubs | 6.1 | 5 | -1.1 | |
| MacKenzie Gore | Seattle Mariners | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Shane Drohan | Colorado Rockies | 5.4 | 6 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Joey Cantillo | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Matthew Boyd | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Patrick Sandoval | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 | |
| Sean Manaea | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 | |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Chicago White Sox | 5.1 | 0 | -5.1 | |
| Shane McClanahan | Cleveland Guardians | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 | |
| Dustin May | Cincinnati Reds | 5.1 | 8 | +2.9 | |
| Roki Sasaki | New York Mets | 5.0 | 9 | +4.0 | |
| Trey Yesavage | Boston Red Sox | 4.8 | 9 | +4.2 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Davis Martin | 62.9% | Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Sean Manaea | 62.2% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Ryan Gusto | 62.1% | No Hit |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Grayson Rodriguez | 61.7% | Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Zebby Matthews | 61.6% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Roki Sasaki | 61.6% | No Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Germán Márquez | 61.1% | Hit |
| Byron Buxton | — | vs Jacob Lopez | 61.0% | No Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Cam Schlittler | 60.9% | No Hit |
| CJ Abrams | — | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 60.8% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Dustin May | 60.6% | Hit |
| Otto Lopez | — | vs Germán Márquez | 60.6% | Hit |
| Alec Burleson | — | vs Rhett Lowder | 60.5% | No Hit |
| Shea Langeliers | — | vs Zebby Matthews | 60.5% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Joey Cantillo | 60.5% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Kazuma Okamoto — 25.2% HR probability
- Matt Olson — 23.8% HR probability
- Casey Schmitt — 23.7% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Tarik Skubal — proj 7.4, recorded 12
- Jesús Luzardo — proj 6.9, recorded 9
- Cam Schlittler — proj 6.8, recorded 12
Biggest Surprises
- Cam Schlittler — proj 6.8, recorded 12
- Spencer Arrighetti — proj 5.1, recorded 0
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kazuma Okamoto. Model HR probability 25.2% — result: Home Run.
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