MLB Results — July 25, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 25, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Ryan Weathers 31.1% No Home Run

#2 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Randy Vásquez 30.7% No Home Run

#3 Hunter Goodman— · vs Robert Gasser 28.4% No Home Run

#4 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Sean Burke 28.0% No Home Run

#5 Zach Neto— · vs Robbie Ray 27.1% No Home Run

#6 Luke Raley— · vs Nathan Eovaldi 25.4% No Home Run

#7 Byron Buxton— · vs Brady Basso 25.3% No Home Run

#8 Jac Caglianone— · vs Casey Mize 24.4% No Home Run

#9 Royce Lewis— · vs Brady Basso 24.2% No Home Run

#10 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Sonny Gray 24.2% No Home Run

#11 James Wood— · vs Mitch Bratt 24.1% No Home Run

#12 Esmerlyn Valdez— · vs Shota Imanaga 24.1% No Home Run

#13 Joc Pederson— · vs Bryan Woo 23.9% No Home Run

#14 Michael Conforto— · vs Paul Skenes 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Kyle Stowers— · vs Randy Vásquez 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Dylan Ceasevs Boston Red Sox 8.5 12 +3.5

Paul Skenesvs Chicago Cubs 6.9 11 +4.1

Eury Pérezvs San Diego Padres 6.3 2 -4.3

Yoshinobu Yamamotovs New York Mets 5.8 5 -0.8On target

Nathan Eovaldivs Seattle Mariners 5.8 8 +2.2

Hunter Greenevs St. Louis Cardinals 5.8 3 -2.8

Ryan Weathersvs Philadelphia Phillies 5.7 7 +1.3

Nolan McLeanvs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.7 7 +1.3

Casey Mizevs Kansas City Royals 5.6 3 -2.6

Bryan Woovs Texas Rangers 5.6 5 -0.6On target

Sean Burkevs Houston Astros 5.5 10 +4.5

Shota Imanagavs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.1 4 -1.1

Sonny Grayvs Toronto Blue Jays 5.1 3 -2.1

Foster Griffinvs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.1 2 -3.1

Robert Gasservs Colorado Rockies 4.9 4 -0.9On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Sean Burke 62.0% No Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Mike Paredes 61.9% Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Nolan McLean 61.8% No Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Mitch Bratt 61.3% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Andre Pallante 61.2% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Eury Pérez 61.0% No Hit

Byron Buxton— · vs Brady Basso 61.0% No Hit

Nick Kurtz— · vs Mike Paredes 60.8% No Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Ryan Johnson 60.7% Hit

Paul Goldschmidt— · vs Tim Mayza 60.7% Hit

Bryan De La Cruz— · vs Ryan Weathers 60.7% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Ryan Weathers 60.5% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Ryan Weathers 60.5% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Tim Mayza 60.5% No Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto 60.5% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Salvador Perez — 23.9% HR probability
Rafael Devers — 18.1% HR probability
Gunnar Henderson — 17.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Dylan Cease — proj 8.5, recorded 12
Paul Skenes — proj 6.9, recorded 11
Nathan Eovaldi — proj 5.8, recorded 8

Biggest Surprises

Sean Burke — proj 5.5, recorded 10
Eury Pérez — proj 6.3, recorded 2

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Salvador Perez. Model HR probability 23.9% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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